Steve, um, earnings, Fed easing, that's the bull thesis right there in front of you. Anything to anything to hit out on that. >> Well, let's simplify it.Don't fight the Fed. So, whether the Fed goes in October, whether they go again before the end of the year, and there's some debate about that as the economy continues to look strong, and we've seen somewhat a moderation in inflation, meaning it's not ticking up. The last couple numbers came in.Okay. So look, while I don't think anybody's happy with valuati ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1]. - The content may include advertisements and promotional materials, with the website potentially receiving compensation from third parties [1].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached new record highs, driven by speculation of additional Federal Reserve easing to support the labor market despite inflation risks [2] - Stock indexes experienced mixed movements after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated potential further cuts by the end of the year, influenced by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation [2][4] Economic Indicators - Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by 33,000 to 231,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 240,000 [4] - The September Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey increased by 23.5 to an 8-month high of 23.2, surpassing expectations of 1.7 [4] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks showed significant strength, particularly Intel, which surged by 20% following Nvidia's announcement of a $5 billion investment and collaboration on chip development [3][10] - Other notable gainers in the semiconductor sector included ASML Holding NV (+5%), Marvell Technology (+4%), and KLA Corp (+4%) [11] Company Movements - CrowdStrike Home rose by over 9% after discussing its AI strategy and providing a strong preliminary fiscal 2027 outlook [12] - IonQ increased by more than 5% after signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the US Department of Energy for quantum technology development [12] - 89bio saw a significant rise of over 86% following Roche's acquisition announcement for $3.5 billion [12] Stock Declines - Red Cat fell by more than 11% due to plans for a public stock offering [14] - Darden Restaurants dropped over 9% after forecasting adjusted EPS below consensus expectations [14] - ARM Holdings and Advanced Micro Devices both experienced declines of over 5% and 3% respectively, influenced by Nvidia's investment in Intel [15]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing a decline due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside mixed economic indicators from the US and Europe [1][5][6]. Economic Indicators - US retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.2% [3]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7% month-over-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% [3]. - The US manufacturing production unexpectedly rose by 0.2% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% decline [3]. - The NAHB housing market index for September remained unchanged at a 2.75-year low of 32, which was below the expected increase to 33 [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The market is pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an 84% chance of a second 25 basis point cut at the next meeting on October 28-29 [5]. - Overall, the market anticipates a total reduction of 69 basis points in the federal funds rate by year-end, bringing it down to 3.64% from the current 4.33% [5]. Currency Movements - The euro is appreciating against the dollar, up by 0.69% and reaching a 4-year high, driven by dollar weakness and central bank divergence [6]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts [6]. Eurozone Economic News - Eurozone Q2 labor costs increased from Q1, indicating rising costs in the region [7]. - The German ZEW survey for September showed unexpected improvement in economic growth expectations [7]. - However, Eurozone industrial production for July rose less than anticipated, indicating mixed economic performance [7].

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve Actions - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.27% on Monday due to expectations of a -25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - The S&P's rally to a new record high has reduced liquidity demand for the dollar, contributing to its decline [1] - The US September Empire manufacturing survey fell to a three-month low of -8.7, which was weaker than the expected 5.0, further pressuring the dollar [3] Group 2: Market Expectations and Rate Cuts - Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an 82% chance of a second -25 basis point cut at the October 28-29 meeting [3] - Overall, markets anticipate a total rate cut of -68 basis points by year-end, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.65% from the current 4.33% [3] Group 3: Euro Performance and ECB Outlook - The euro (EUR/USD) rose by +0.30% on Monday, driven by dollar weakness and hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Kocher, indicating the ECB is nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle [4] - However, gains in the euro were limited by a significant drop in the German August wholesale price index and Fitch Ratings' downgrade of France's credit rating, which are both bearish for the euro [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, are also negatively impacting the euro [5]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to consider their financial situation and needs before relying on the information provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to consider their financial situation and needs before relying on the information provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1].

Group 1 - The article suggests that U.S. equities are not considered cheap, but the focus should be on the relative opportunities they present in the current environment [1] - It emphasizes that stock valuations being above historical averages is less important than the potential for returns compared to other investment options [1]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].