Key Takeaways from the FX and Rates Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) and rates market sentiment, particularly regarding the US dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and emerging markets (EM) currencies. It reflects the views of 42 fund managers with a total of USD 573 billion in assets under management (AUM) [7][9]. Core Insights 1. **Short USD Thesis**: The short USD remains the highest conviction trade for the rest of the year, despite being challenged by rising global growth concerns [1][3][20]. 2. **Global Growth Concerns**: There is a significant concern regarding a potential global growth slowdown, which could impact the short USD thesis [3][25]. 3. **US Exceptionalism**: The fading of US exceptionalism is a recurring theme, with expectations that both US equities and the USD may decline [1][32][33]. 4. **Investor Sentiment**: A strong majority of respondents expect the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair to be more dovish, impacting market expectations [44][46]. 5. **FX Hedge Ratios**: Many investors prefer to increase their FX hedge ratios, indicating a cautious approach towards US assets [49][50]. Additional Insights 1. **Emerging Markets (EM) Sentiment**: EM FX and duration sentiment appears to have peaked, with a slight decline in positioning and views noted in August [15][94]. 2. **European Investment Push**: There is muted conviction regarding a broad-based European investment push, with concerns about EU defense spending and fiscal policies [22][61]. 3. **Tariff Expectations**: Most respondents expect tariffs against China to remain between 30-40% by the end of 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [17][34]. 4. **Oil Price Expectations**: Expectations for oil prices are that they will remain range-bound between $60-69 per barrel, with some upside risks anticipated [36][37]. 5. **UK and Eurozone Sentiment**: GBP sentiment has turned neutral with bearish levels, while EUR sentiment remains bullish despite lighter positioning [110][103]. Potential Risks and Opportunities 1. **Fed Independence Risks**: Nearly half of the respondents expect risks to Fed independence to manifest as a steeper US Treasury (UST) curve and a weaker USD [46][39]. 2. **Global Risk Appetite**: The appetite for risk-taking in portfolios remains lower than normal, with average cash levels reported at 3.3% [77][78]. 3. **Duration Exposure**: Global duration exposure has fallen relative to the previous month, indicating a cautious stance among investors [78][80]. Conclusion The survey indicates a complex landscape for FX and rates, with significant concerns about global growth, US fiscal policy, and the evolving dynamics of the Fed. Investors are adjusting their strategies accordingly, with a notable shift towards hedging and cautious positioning in the face of potential risks.

Avery Sheffield is with us. Vanage Rock, co-founder, CIO, and senior portfolio manager. Good to have you.>> Great to be here. >> You care who the next Fed chair is. >> I think it Well, let's see. I think over the longer term it matters.Um, under the Trump administration, the next Fed chair, I think, is going to be, you know, chosen to uh be as compliant with Trump as as the markets will allow that person to be. So yes, I'm I I think if he if Trump does pick someone who would have more independence, I think ...

So, for more on all this, let's bring in Jason Ferman. He's a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School and a former CEA chairman himself. Jason, it's terrific to see you on this Friday.Uh, you're you're a former Obama guy, so I think our audience is going to expect that you're going to throw rocks here at Myron. So, let's start with something other than rock throwing for a second. Uh, let's start with the, you know, the most positive thing you can think of about this Myron pick.>> Uh, I don't know if it's the ...

Joining us right now, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. He's currently a partner at Solomare Capital and vice chairman at Teneo. And it's good to see you, sir.Morning. Uh I'm curious what you make of the dialogue here as it relates to both the tariff issue and the Fed issue. We have so many former Treasury Secretaries.Everybody's trying to figure out what's really going on. Everyone's a little worried about whether the numbers are even going to be real in the future. What do you think.Well, I think we' ...

President Trump reiterated his criticism of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said he was close to picking a new Fed chair, and teased new tariffs on semiconductors. Joining me now, Muhammad Alerian, president of Queens College of Cambridge to talk about that and many other things. Muhammad, good to see you.Good morning, Julie. I would like to start with this whole situation over the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. Um, with President Trump's removal of the person who heads up that agency, what does that ...

What's your reaction to Governor Coogler's decision here and how concerned are you about who might replace him. I've just seen the headlines, so I am I am learning information real time, whether this was a personal choice or whether there was a feeling of a political pressure. And I'm almost, you know, hesitant to even even weigh in because I don't have the information.Anything, though, that I just as a as a overarching point, anything that makes this fed more political, that robs it of its independence is ...

CNBC’s Leslie Picker with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, join 'Money Movers' to discuss his branch strategy, the economy, his meetings with the president and Trump's comments about Fed Chair Powell. ...

I I think that having an independent central bank has been an institutional arrangement that has served the public well and as long as it serves the public well, it should continue and be respected. If it didn't serve the public well, then then it wouldn't be something that we should just automatically defend. But what it gives us and other central banks, what it gives you is the ability to make these these very challenging decisions that in ways that are focused on the data and the evolving outlook, the ba ...

Um so basically earnings have come in okay. They've beat kind of subdued expectations. The growth rate is moderate relative to history.Um what's your key takeaway so far and especially as we go into this very busy week. I mean so far to me one of the biggest takeaways from a macro perspective is that the US consumer at least to date is holding in pretty well. And I think that came across most strongly with the bank earnings.So to me that was important because we know the consumer is about 69% of the economy ...

All right, why don't we start off just with that that news from yesterday and the video that's a lot of people think it's kind of weird, maybe even cringey. The president and J Pal together kind of, you know, bickering a bit in public, but the president saying he's not looking to fire J Pal. Does that just take away some from some of that, you know, quote unquote wall of worry about Fed independence.>> Yeah, I think so. I think a lot of this is just simply noise. And I think we should just focus on fundamen ...