U.S. ISM survey data will be closely watched as investors assess whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates again in December. ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index has declined due to weak labor market expectations and concerns over a potential US government shutdown, while the euro has strengthened supported by positive economic indicators and central bank divergence. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.22% on Monday, influenced by speculation regarding weak US labor market news prompting potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The dollar's decline was also affected by the risk of a US government shutdown, which is weighing on market sentiment [1] - Despite the decline, the dollar recovered slightly after August pending home sales rose by +4.0% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.4% [2] Group 2: Labor Market and Fed Outlook - The September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey unexpectedly fell by -6.9 to -8.7, indicating weaker manufacturing activity than anticipated [3] - Comments from Fed officials were mixed, with New York Fed President suggesting a lower interest rate stance due to receding inflation risks, while Cleveland Fed President indicated inflation may not reach the Fed's 2% target until late 2027 or early 2028 [4] - Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [4] Group 3: Euro Performance - The EUR/USD rose by +0.23% on Monday, driven by a weaker dollar and supportive economic news from the Eurozone [5] - The Eurozone's September economic confidence index unexpectedly rose by +0.2 to 95.5, surpassing expectations of 95.3, which bolstered the euro [6] - ECB Governing Council member Makhlouf stated that the ECB is "near the bottom" of its rate-cutting cycle, indicating a more hawkish stance compared to the Fed [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin briefly surpassed $116,000 following new US inflation data, which raised expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, positively impacting risk assets [1] - The overall cryptocurrency market increased by 1.5% to $4.1 trillion, with Ether rising 2.5% to $4,519 [1] - Recent economic data, including a decline in the producer price index and revisions to employment figures, have shifted market sentiment towards anticipating monetary easing [2][3] Economic Indicators - The producer price index showed a surprising decline of 0.1%, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating easing wholesale inflation [1] - Consumer price index figures confirmed a rise in headline inflation, but not enough to deter expectations for monetary easing [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down employment data, erasing approximately 900,000 jobs, suggesting a weaker labor market than previously believed [3] Market Reactions - The combination of steady inflation and downward revisions in employment data is leading the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts to support economic growth [4] - Risk assets, including Bitcoin and gold, rallied in anticipation of the Fed's actions, with investors positioning themselves ahead of potential monetary easing [5] - Weekly jobless claims rose to 263,000, reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut as markets balance inflation concerns with signs of slowing growth [6] Institutional Interest - On September 11, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $553 million in net inflows, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, while Ethereum spot ETFs added $113 million [7] - Regardless of whether the Fed opts for a quarter- or half-point cut, Bitcoin continues to draw institutional capital, with its role in investment portfolios expanding [7]