It's time now for the 360 round. For that, let's bring in our panel to discuss gold and silver prices of late. Joining us now, Tom Graph, chief investment officer at Facet, and Akash Doshi, the head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management.Thank you both for being with us today. Akos, let's start with you. Um, what are your takeaways from some of this action we've seen of late.You know, we saw these record-breaking prices and then we've seen them significantly pull back. Today, we're coming ba ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin price prediction for 2026 varies significantly, with estimates ranging from $75,000 to $225,000, influenced by factors such as ETF demand, liquidity growth, and macroeconomic conditions [2][10]. Conservative Case for Bitcoin Price - Analysts predict a lower range for Bitcoin prices in 2026 between $75,000 and $120,000, as markets adjust to slower liquidity growth [5]. - Carol Alexander anticipates Bitcoin trading in a high-volatility range of $75,000 to $150,000, with a central estimate around $110,000 [5]. - Citigroup's bearish scenario estimates Bitcoin at approximately $78,500, influenced by tighter policy conditions and reduced ETF demand [6]. - Conservative investors are advised to adopt a staged buying strategy between $75,000 and $90,000 to mitigate risks [7]. Institutional Consensus for Bitcoin Price - The institutional consensus for Bitcoin prices is projected between $143,000 and $175,000, driven by ETF demand and moderate rate cuts [10][11]. - Major firms like Citigroup and JPMorgan have forecasts centered around $143,000 and $170,000 respectively, reflecting expectations of steady allocation growth and reduced issuance following the halving [11]. - CoinShares' James Butterfill expects Bitcoin to trade between $120,000 and $170,000, with more positive price movements anticipated in the latter half of the year [11].

Essentially, investors who took profits on the rally to last week’s historic high are now returning at more attractive prices. They realize that the key bullish fundamentals remain intact — central bank buying, geopolitical risks and U.S. debt issues — and prices are now cheaper than they were a week ago.Fed Policy Concerns Create HeadwindsThe next leg up won’t be easy, however, with Fed policy concerns creating headwinds. As recently as last week, bullish traders were confident the Fed would cut rates at l ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a significant decline following President Trump's announcement of a sweeping tariff program but rebounded to near all-time highs by the end of the year due to a reduction in tariff threats [1]. Fed Policy - The Trump administration is pushing for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Jerome Powell for not acting aggressively enough [3]. - A criminal investigation into Powell's 2025 congressional testimony regarding a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters has intensified tensions between the administration and the central bank [4]. - The stock markets initially dropped due to the investigation news but later recovered as uncertainty about the investigation's outcome persisted [4]. Military Actions - The Trump administration has ordered military action in Venezuela, aiming to capture Nicolás Maduro and control the country's oil reserves [5][6]. - Plans include urging major U.S. oil companies to invest up to $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure, despite the country currently producing less than 1% of global oil supply [6][7]. - Contrary to typical market reactions to military invasions, stock markets rose to new highs, particularly in the oil/energy, defense, and artificial intelligence sectors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy remains "moderately restrictive" even after three quarter-point rate cuts in late 2025, indicating a continued effort to combat inflation and support economic growth [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has implemented three quarter-point rate cuts in late 2025 [1] - Despite the rate cuts, the Fed's policy is still leaning against inflation [1] - The current interest-rate setting is characterized as "moderately restrictive" [1]

Group 1 - Analysts predict that further devaluation of the US dollar in 2026 will lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin's price, positioning it as the top-performing macro asset [1] - The value of the US dollar has decreased nearly 10% over the past year, influenced by geopolitical turbulence and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The Trump administration is expected to implement policies that will accelerate dollar debasement, which analysts believe will further boost Bitcoin's value [4] Group 2 - There is a reduction in profit-taking among Bitcoin holders, with fewer whales looking to sell, which may impact supply dynamics in the market [5] - Bitcoin is currently trading just above $91,000, approximately 30% lower than its all-time high of $126,000 [5] - The price of crypto assets like Bitcoin is closely tied to the money supply and Federal Reserve policies, with current pressures from the Trump administration affecting investor sentiment [6][7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Markets are at a crossroads entering 2026, with subdued but volatile oil prices, steady interest rates despite hopes for cuts, and a climbing S&P 500 driven by strong earnings [2] - The trends reflect deeper macro shifts, including energy supply dynamics, Fed policy uncertainty, and renewed corporate momentum [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Current low oil prices are paradoxically leading to improving demand, which supports price action; however, oversupply is expected to cap prices in 2026 [3] - Geopolitical factors and economic growth are also influencing the oil market, creating uncertainty in forecasts [3] Group 3: Economic Growth and Energy Demand - Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.0% to 3.5% this year, driven by emerging markets and the expanding middle class, which accounts for 30% to 40% of global GDP [5] - The middle class is expected to drive energy demand through increased access to transportation, housing, and heating [5] Group 4: Oil Price Projections - WTI prices are near long-term lows, indicating a potential technical bottom and a high probability of a rebound if a catalyst emerges; gains could reach double digits [5] - Low oil prices are contributing to cooler inflation, but there is a risk that prices could fall further, impacting energy companies' earnings and capital returns [5][6] Group 5: Interest Rates and S&P 500 Outlook - Although Fed rates are falling, the outlook for further cuts may weaken, posing a risk of higher consumer-level interest rates [6] - The S&P 500 is currently in a favorable position and may continue to rally regardless of fluctuations in oil prices and interest rates [6]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.15%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down -0.18%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -0.19% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrials has slid to a 1-week low, while the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to a 1.5-week low, primarily due to weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks [2] Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 16,000 to a 1-month low of 199,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated [3] - China's December manufacturing PMI rose by +0.9 to 50.1, exceeding expectations and marking the fastest pace of expansion in 9 months [4] - The December non-manufacturing PMI in China also increased by +0.7 to 50.2, stronger than expected [4] Market Sentiment - Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks, with historical data showing that the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, averaging a 1.3% increase [5] - Market focus this week is on US economic news, with expectations for the December S&P manufacturing PMI to remain at 51.8 [5] - The markets are currently pricing in a 15% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [5] Global Market Overview - Overseas stock markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.08% and China's Shanghai Composite closing up +0.09% [6] - Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 is closed for a bank holiday [6]

Economic Outlook - The economic outlook for 2026 presents mixed signals, with potential for a stronger economy than anticipated, particularly in the first half of the year [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a pause on interest rates through most of the first half of next year, with a gradual increase in the probability of rate cuts by April or June [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Despite low consumer confidence and sentiment, there is a notable willingness to spend, supported by healthy balance sheets and low unemployment rates [6][8] - Tax refunds are expected to be larger in 2026, which may further encourage consumer spending [8] Corporate Investment - The introduction of accelerated depreciation at the corporate level is a significant tax change that could impact investment, although the extent of its awareness and utilization remains uncertain [10][11] - There is potential for this depreciation to stimulate investment beyond just AI, which has been a primary focus, indicating a broader opportunity for growth in various sectors [13]

Labor Market and Economic Outlook - The labor market remains stable, with jobless claims consistently between 200,000 and 240,000, indicating no overheating but also no deterioration, setting a positive outlook for 2026 [2] - A dovish rate environment could potentially reverse job losses attributed to technology [2][3] Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the Fed funds rate to the low 3% range, supported by a favorable inflation report and downward pressure from housing costs on the CPI [3] - The CPI is projected to remain in the low 2% range, allowing for further rate reductions by the Fed [3] Fiscal Stimulus and Tax Policy - Changes in tax policy may provide fiscal stimulus, benefiting both individuals and corporations through larger refunds and lower tax rates [4] - Upcoming Supreme Court rulings regarding tariffs and potential government shutdowns could disrupt the economic landscape, impacting the effectiveness of fiscal policies [5][6] Balancing Risks and Tailwinds - The economic outlook is characterized by a balance of positive factors, such as tax refunds and lower gas prices, against negative factors like potential student loan payments resuming and expiring ACA subsidies [7] - The ACA subsidies are a significant political issue, with implications for the upcoming midterm elections, affecting healthcare costs and overall economic sentiment [8] Housing Market - Rental and home prices have stabilized, with no longer experiencing double-digit inflation, although they remain expensive for many Americans [9]