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摩根大通:亚太市场主题 -五大核心主题-JPM _ APAC Market Thematics - 5x KEY THEMES
摩根· 2025-09-29 03:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on Asia, particularly favoring emerging markets (EM) over developed markets (DM) equities [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquidity and policy backdrop in Asia remains supportive, with expectations of further monetary easing in China and a favorable environment for EM equities as the Fed enters a rate cut cycle [2][6]. - China's anti-involution policy is expected to stimulate demand, with forecasts indicating a growth slowdown in Q3 and Q4, but a shift towards consumption support is anticipated [6][10]. - Singapore is highlighted as a potential value-up opportunity, with government initiatives aimed at improving shareholder value and market liquidity, particularly for small and mid-cap (SMID) stocks [14]. - The recent India Summit indicated that periods of significant underperformance relative to the MXAP index historically present buying opportunities, with a focus on sectors like financials and infrastructure [18]. Summary by Sections Asia Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of the Fed's rate cut cycle, predicting a 4-5% downside for the dollar in the next six months, which historically benefits EM equities [2]. - EM equities have outperformed by over 5%/15% in the 6/12 months following the start of a Fed cutting cycle, reinforcing the positive stance on EM Asia equities [2]. China Macro - China's growth forecast for Q3 and Q4 is set at 4.6% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively, with expectations of fiscal stimulus announcements in late October or early November [6]. - The report suggests that the government will focus on lifting consumption rather than reversing supply-side efforts, creating a favorable cyclical backdrop for Chinese equities [6]. China Positioning - The report notes a potential sideways consolidation in China's equity market due to bubbly margin finance, but highlights positive catalysts such as upcoming meetings between Xi and Trump and the 4th Plenary session [10]. - There is a reduction in hedge fund long/short exposure in China, indicating potential for reinvestment as market conditions improve [10]. Singapore - The Singapore government is pushing for enhanced shareholder value creation, with a focus on improving returns and market liquidity for SMID stocks [14]. - The launch of the SGN50N Index is expected to attract more investment into the SMID segment, supported by the S$5 billion EQDP program [14]. India Summit - The report indicates that historically, when India lags the MXAP by over 20% year-on-year, it is an opportune time to start adding positions [18]. - Key growth drivers for India include steady domestic consumption, improving fiscal and monetary policies, and a resilient economy relative to global export challenges [18].