Core Insights - U.S. rents have increased by 19.6% since 2019, but this growth is below the 25.6% rise in consumer prices, indicating a cooling rental market and potential relief in shelter inflation [1][2][5] - The sustained slowdown in rent growth is expected to positively impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the coming months, easing overall inflation pressure [2][6] - Despite the overall cooling, rents in certain metro areas have outpaced inflation, highlighting regional disparities in housing affordability [3][4] Rental Trends - The median rent in the U.S. as of May 2025 is $1,705, which is $54 lower than the peak in August 2022 [1][6] - Year-over-year rent declines have been observed for 22 consecutive months, with the overall rent down by 1.7% [5][6] - Major metros like San Francisco and Minneapolis have seen significant rent declines compared to inflation, with San Francisco rents down by 3.2% since 2019 [4][6] Metro-Level Analysis - Nine metro areas have experienced rent growth exceeding inflation since 2019, including Pittsburgh (43.2%), Tampa (41.6%), and Miami (36.2%) [3][4] - Conversely, cities like San Francisco and Seattle have seen the least growth, with declines of 3.2% and 7.9% respectively [4][6] - Federal policy changes, such as restrictions on international student visas, are influencing rental demand in key markets, leading to cooling rents in cities like Miami and Seattle [8][9] Future Outlook - Recent tariff hikes on steel and aluminum are expected to increase construction costs, potentially putting upward pressure on future rents in certain metros [10] - The mixed results in rental trends across federal employment hubs reflect the complex dynamics of government employment on local housing demand [9][10] - Overall, the rental market is showing signs of cooling, which may lead to improved affordability for renters in the near future [2][6]