On Jan. 30, 2026, President Donald Trump formally announced that he had nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve beginning in May. If confirmed, he’ll bring years of previous Fed experience—and his millionaire net worth—to the central bank. Current Fed Chair Powell was nominated for the position by Trump in 2017, during his first term—something the president appeared to forget when criticizing Powell during the summer of 2025. If the Senate confirms Warsh’s nomin ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant selloff, briefly dipping below $72,000, marking its lowest level in nearly 16 months, with traders adjusting their expectations for both short-term and long-term price movements [1][6]. Market Sentiment - Polymarket's February Bitcoin price contract indicates a strong focus on the $70,000 target, which has surged to a 74% probability, reflecting a 65% increase in trading volume [2][3]. - The $85,000 contract has seen a drastic decline of 61%, now sitting at a 29% probability, while higher targets like $90,000 and $95,000 are at 12% and 7% respectively [2][3]. Long-term Outlook - For the 2026 annual contract, the $100,000 level has a 55% probability but has decreased by 29%, indicating a shift in trader sentiment [4]. - The $65,000 contract for 2026 has surged to 83% probability, with over $1 million in volume, suggesting a focus on downside protection rather than upside speculation [5]. Factors Driving the Selloff - Bitcoin has fallen 16% year-to-date and approximately 40% from its all-time high of $126,000, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions, data gaps from a previous government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve [6]. - Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, leading to a nine-month low in open interest, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant capital outflows totaling $1.6 billion over several days [6].

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks on the day he announced the creation of a critical mineral reserve, in the Oval Office at the White House, Feb. 2, 2026.President Donald Trump on Monday said a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell should continue, shrugging off a Republican senator's vow to block Trump's Fed chair replacement pick unless the probe is dropped.U.S. Attorney for Washington Jeanine Pirro, who is leading the unprecedented probe of the central bank chairman, should ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's views on Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, highlighting Warsh's conventional appearance and pedigree [1][2] - Trump emphasizes the need for the new Fed chair to align with the White House's preferences for cutting benchmark rates, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach during an unconventional moment [1] - Warsh is described as intelligent and appealing, with Trump noting that while looks are not important, Warsh possesses the desired appearance for the role [2]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve by President Trump is facing potential delays in the Senate due to Republican opposition linked to a criminal investigation of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1][5]. Group 1: Nomination and Confirmation Process - Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, but his confirmation requires a simple majority in the Senate, which typically involves a hearing and vote in the Senate Banking Committee [1]. - Senator Thom Tillis has stated he will oppose any Federal Reserve nominee until the conclusion of the criminal probe into Powell, which adds significant weight to the opposition given his position on the Senate Banking Committee [3][4]. Group 2: Criminal Investigation Context - The Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Powell's congressional testimony regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's buildings, which has escalated tensions between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve [9][10]. - Powell described the investigation as "unprecedented" and indicative of ongoing threats from Trump towards the central bank, marking a significant departure from his usual measured approach [10][11]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Tillis emphasized the importance of protecting the Federal Reserve's independence from political interference, stating that this principle is non-negotiable [5]. - Powell advised that the next Fed chair should avoid involvement in elected politics and reiterated the necessity of an independent central bank [11].

Fiona Yang, Asia Ex-Japan Equities Fund Manager at Invesco, shares her views on the potential market implications if Kevin Warsh were to be confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chair. ...

President Donald Trump said he'll announce his nominee to chair the Federal Reserve next week — and prediction markets are pointing strongly to a Wall Street veteran getting the job. ...

Core Viewpoint - A Republican senator is withholding support for a nominee for the Federal Reserve chair until the Justice Department's investigation into Jerome Powell is concluded [1] Group 1 - The senator's leverage indicates a significant political influence over the nomination process for the Federal Reserve chair [1] - The ongoing investigation by the Justice Department raises concerns regarding Jerome Powell's suitability for the position [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's comments regarding the next Federal Reserve chair have introduced uncertainty into the markets, particularly concerning the independence of the Fed and its monetary policy direction [1][2]. Market Implications - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve under a new chair has led investors to anticipate quicker and deeper interest rate cuts, resulting in a decline in Treasury yields and a weakening of the U.S. dollar [3]. - Lower interest rates are generally favorable for equities, especially in sectors sensitive to rate changes such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and commodities, which may lead to outperformance of related ETFs [4]. - A weaker U.S. dollar in a dovish monetary environment tends to enhance the attractiveness of non-U.S. assets, including emerging-market equities and international ETFs [5]. Risks to Market Confidence - The possibility of a politically aligned Fed chair could necessitate a "political risk premium," impacting investor confidence and potentially leading to concerns about policy consistency and inflation [6]. Scenario Analysis - Various scenarios could unfold, including a dovish pivot with accelerated rate cuts, a volatility spike due to fears of Fed politicization, or a status quo with ongoing uncertainty. Each scenario has distinct implications for ETF performance, with potential rallies in fixed-income ETFs and outperformance in equity and real-asset ETFs under a dovish pivot [7][8]. Investor Guidance - Investors should monitor the formal nomination announcement and comments from potential nominees regarding interest-rate policy and Fed independence. Positioning in rate-sensitive sectors and global diversification may be prudent if a dovish pivot occurs, while maintaining caution due to potential volatility [9].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz suggests that the nomination of a pro-easing candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the next US Federal Reserve chair could serve as a significant catalyst for a Bitcoin rally, potentially pushing prices towards $200K [1][2][5] Group 1: Potential Impact of Fed Chair Nomination - A dovish pivot from the next Fed chair, especially involving aggressive rate cuts, could lead to a dramatic increase in cryptocurrency prices [2][5] - Novogratz highlights that such a scenario could create a "blow-off top" moment in the market, indicating a sharp price surge [2] - The current Fed chair, Jerome Powell, is set to complete his term in May 2026, and the potential candidates being considered have varying views on monetary policy [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Risks - Novogratz warns that while the short-term impact on Bitcoin could be explosive, the broader implications for U.S. financial stability could be negative [3][5] - Market reactions may remain subdued until an official nomination is made, as investors may be skeptical about the potential changes until they are confirmed [4][5] - Daleep Singh from PGIM Fixed Income notes that the balance of risks for the dollar is "skewed to the downside," indicating potential vulnerabilities in the currency [4]