Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing as traders assess the likelihood of another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before the end of the year, with current trading around $4,070 an ounce after a modest weekly loss [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold traded near $4,070 an ounce, experiencing a slight weekly loss, with comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggesting potential for a reduction in borrowing costs [1]. - Futures traders are pricing in a nearly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month, which typically benefits gold as it does not yield interest [3]. - The precious metal has been in a consolidation phase since reaching a record high above $4,380 an ounce in October, currently up around 55% this year due to trade and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including September retail sales and producer-price data, which are expected to provide insights into the economy's health [3]. - Ahmad Assiri from Pepperstone Group Ltd. indicated that the rate-cut path is unpredictable, suggesting that gold will likely remain around current levels, creating opportunities for two-way trades in a less volatile environment [4]. - Spot gold was reported at $4,072.55 an ounce, with other precious metals like silver edging higher, while platinum steadied and palladium declined [5].

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to face significant pressure in the upcoming year if the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates more than anticipated due to political influences [1] Group 1 - Commerzbank indicates that political pressure may lead to unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Insights - The dollar experienced its worst first-half performance in a calendar year since at least the early 1970s, indicating significant challenges in the currency market [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates again in September, the dollar has been rising steadily, suggesting a potential recovery in its value [1] Economic Performance - The first half of 2025 marked a historically poor performance for the dollar, highlighting the volatility and challenges faced by the currency [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts initiated in September have positively impacted the dollar's performance, leading to a steady increase [1]

Sales Performance - Existing home sales in the U.S. rose 1.5% in September from August, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, marking the fastest sales pace since February [1] - Year-over-year sales increased by 4.1% compared to September of the previous year, although the latest figure was slightly below the expected pace of approximately 4.07 million units [2] Price Trends - The national median sales price for homes climbed 2.1% in September from a year earlier, reaching $415,200, representing the 27th consecutive month of annual price increases [2] Market Context - The U.S. housing market has experienced a sales slump since 2022 due to rising mortgage rates, with sales of previously occupied homes hitting their lowest level in nearly 30 years last year [3] - Mortgage rates began to decline in July, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's decision to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year, amid concerns over the U.S. job market [3] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - Homes sold in September likely went under contract in July and August, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage ranged from 6.75% to 6.56% [4] - The decline in mortgage rates accelerated in September, with rates dropping as low as 6.27% last week [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming US jobs report is critical for bond investors, as it may influence expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in October [1][2][3] - Traders have reduced their bets on further Fed easing due to mixed signals from officials and stronger-than-expected economic data [2][3] - A potential federal government shutdown starting October 1 could delay the release of key economic data, including the employment figures [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered rates for the first time this year due to a softening job market, with an approximately 80% chance of another cut at the upcoming meeting [3][4] - Ten-year Treasury yields rose towards 4.2% after previously hitting a five-month low, influenced by recent economic data showing a decline in initial jobless claims [5][6] - Treasuries have gained 5.1% this year, positioning the market for its best performance since 2020, despite inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [7]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in 30-year mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is attributed to market expectations regarding future policy moves, despite the initial counterintuitive nature of this trend [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4% to 4.25% [4]. - This rate cut was anticipated by the market, which has historically seen mortgage rates react differently than expected [7]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Movements - Following the Fed's announcement, the 30-year mortgage rate increased by 9 basis points to 6.22% on the same day, and then rose an additional 15 basis points to 6.37% the next day [5]. - In contrast, Freddie Mac's report indicated that mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in 12 months, as it collected data before and after the Fed's decision [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The spike in mortgage rates was relatively small and reflects how financial markets are interpreting the Fed's future policy direction [1]. - The crash of Mortgage News Daily's website during the announcement indicates a significant public interest in mortgage rate changes [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a record high of over $3,700 per troy ounce, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to $3,722 an ounce, with an intraday high of $3,739.90, reflecting strong market sentiment [1]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is a significant factor influencing gold prices, as lower rates typically boost gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a possibility of near-term selling pressure on gold if the Federal Reserve's guidance does not meet market expectations for dovishness [2]. - Confirmation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further strengthen gold's rally, potentially leading to new record highs [2].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has reached a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a modest increase ahead of anticipated inflation data [1] Inflation Expectations - Economists predict that the annual inflation rate will rise to 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July [2] - There is a possibility that inflation could exceed expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [2] - The DXY dollar index has increased by 0.1% to 97.895 [2]