U.S. jobs data will come back into focus in the coming week as investors assess the likely timing of the next Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. ...

Bloomberg A rise in US Treasuries pushed the 30-year bond’s yield to the lowest level so far this year amid haven demand and bond supply considerations. Yields across maturities were lower by at least two basis points and as much as five basis points by the end of Wednesday. The 30-year was below 4.80% for the first time this year and below its 200-day average level, which it hadn’t closed below since early December. Most Read from Bloomberg Catalysts for the rally included a drop in US equity benchm ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing as traders assess the likelihood of another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before the end of the year, with current trading around $4,070 an ounce after a modest weekly loss [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold traded near $4,070 an ounce, experiencing a slight weekly loss, with comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggesting potential for a reduction in borrowing costs [1]. - Futures traders are pricing in a nearly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month, which typically benefits gold as it does not yield interest [3]. - The precious metal has been in a consolidation phase since reaching a record high above $4,380 an ounce in October, currently up around 55% this year due to trade and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including September retail sales and producer-price data, which are expected to provide insights into the economy's health [3]. - Ahmad Assiri from Pepperstone Group Ltd. indicated that the rate-cut path is unpredictable, suggesting that gold will likely remain around current levels, creating opportunities for two-way trades in a less volatile environment [4]. - Spot gold was reported at $4,072.55 an ounce, with other precious metals like silver edging higher, while platinum steadied and palladium declined [5].

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to face significant pressure in the upcoming year if the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates more than anticipated due to political influences [1] Group 1 - Commerzbank indicates that political pressure may lead to unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Insights - The dollar experienced its worst first-half performance in a calendar year since at least the early 1970s, indicating significant challenges in the currency market [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates again in September, the dollar has been rising steadily, suggesting a potential recovery in its value [1] Economic Performance - The first half of 2025 marked a historically poor performance for the dollar, highlighting the volatility and challenges faced by the currency [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts initiated in September have positively impacted the dollar's performance, leading to a steady increase [1]

Sales Performance - Existing home sales in the U.S. rose 1.5% in September from August, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, marking the fastest sales pace since February [1] - Year-over-year sales increased by 4.1% compared to September of the previous year, although the latest figure was slightly below the expected pace of approximately 4.07 million units [2] Price Trends - The national median sales price for homes climbed 2.1% in September from a year earlier, reaching $415,200, representing the 27th consecutive month of annual price increases [2] Market Context - The U.S. housing market has experienced a sales slump since 2022 due to rising mortgage rates, with sales of previously occupied homes hitting their lowest level in nearly 30 years last year [3] - Mortgage rates began to decline in July, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's decision to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year, amid concerns over the U.S. job market [3] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - Homes sold in September likely went under contract in July and August, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage ranged from 6.75% to 6.56% [4] - The decline in mortgage rates accelerated in September, with rates dropping as low as 6.27% last week [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming US jobs report is critical for bond investors, as it may influence expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in October [1][2][3] - Traders have reduced their bets on further Fed easing due to mixed signals from officials and stronger-than-expected economic data [2][3] - A potential federal government shutdown starting October 1 could delay the release of key economic data, including the employment figures [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered rates for the first time this year due to a softening job market, with an approximately 80% chance of another cut at the upcoming meeting [3][4] - Ten-year Treasury yields rose towards 4.2% after previously hitting a five-month low, influenced by recent economic data showing a decline in initial jobless claims [5][6] - Treasuries have gained 5.1% this year, positioning the market for its best performance since 2020, despite inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [7]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in 30-year mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is attributed to market expectations regarding future policy moves, despite the initial counterintuitive nature of this trend [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4% to 4.25% [4]. - This rate cut was anticipated by the market, which has historically seen mortgage rates react differently than expected [7]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Movements - Following the Fed's announcement, the 30-year mortgage rate increased by 9 basis points to 6.22% on the same day, and then rose an additional 15 basis points to 6.37% the next day [5]. - In contrast, Freddie Mac's report indicated that mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in 12 months, as it collected data before and after the Fed's decision [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The spike in mortgage rates was relatively small and reflects how financial markets are interpreting the Fed's future policy direction [1]. - The crash of Mortgage News Daily's website during the announcement indicates a significant public interest in mortgage rate changes [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a record high of over $3,700 per troy ounce, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to $3,722 an ounce, with an intraday high of $3,739.90, reflecting strong market sentiment [1]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is a significant factor influencing gold prices, as lower rates typically boost gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a possibility of near-term selling pressure on gold if the Federal Reserve's guidance does not meet market expectations for dovishness [2]. - Confirmation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further strengthen gold's rally, potentially leading to new record highs [2].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has reached a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a modest increase ahead of anticipated inflation data [1] Inflation Expectations - Economists predict that the annual inflation rate will rise to 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July [2] - There is a possibility that inflation could exceed expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [2] - The DXY dollar index has increased by 0.1% to 97.895 [2]