Core Insights - The Treasuries market experienced a significant rally, with benchmark yields dropping to their lowest levels in months due to haven buying amid concerns over regional banks' credit exposure and a government shutdown delaying key economic data [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors reacted to the uncertainty by driving the two-year yield below 3.4%, the lowest since 2022, while the 10-year yield fell below 4%, marking its deepest decline since April [3][4] - The Treasuries market saw a second round of haven buying in October, following a previous rally triggered by renewed trade tensions [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Weakening employment conditions have led investors to anticipate a quarter-point Federal Reserve policy easing on October 29, prompting them to lock in 4% yields for 10 years as a safety measure [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a quarter-point reduction in September, have influenced market expectations for future rate cuts, with another cut anticipated in December and potentially two more by mid-2026 [7] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Portfolio managers view Treasuries as an effective risk-off hedge, with expectations that rates could decline further amid ongoing credit concerns and trade jitters [5] - The 30-year Treasury has also gained traction, countering fears of global debasement due to significant borrowing needs of major economies, which has contributed to a surge in gold prices [6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) price closed September at approximately $113,400, down from an intraday high of $114,842, amid discussions on whether it will follow gold's recent performance into Q4 [1] - Gold reached a new all-time high of around $3,871 per ounce, influenced by US government shutdown concerns and potential Federal Reserve policy easing, which may support risk assets like Bitcoin [2] - Bitcoin's price action is seen as a consolidation phase, with $115,000 identified as a key upside trigger and a Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap near $110,000 acting as a downside target for bears [3] Market Dynamics - US spot Bitcoin funds experienced a net inflow of $518 million on September 29, indicating strong investor interest, which partially offset earlier outflows [4] - Perpetual futures funding remained modestly positive, suggesting a mild long bias without excessive positioning that typically indicates local tops [4] - Bitcoin bulls are closely monitoring gold's rally for potential signals while being cautious of the downside risks associated with the $110,000 gap [4] Institutional Activity - Tether's recent purchase of $1 billion worth of Bitcoin indicates strong institutional demand, bolstering bullish expectations for Q4 [5] - Market analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price is preparing for another attempt at higher levels, with recent movements described as a slight pullback after breaking through a crucial resistance zone [6]