Rising ABCD Pattern TargetsA rising ABCD pattern on the chart marks recent swings, but considers the $4,842 swing low to be contained within the CD leg of the formation. This is a judgement call, based on the decisiveness expressed in the first leg up from the bottom. With the measurement, an initial upside target is shown at $5,345. That is where the CD advance matches the rise in price seen in the AB leg.Once that occurs, a potential pivot is identified. This target has greater significance in addition to ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant decline of 23.4% in 2025, with current trading prices at $67,214, indicating sustained market pressure and raising concerns about the potential continuation of the downtrend [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor flow data indicates a shift towards bearish sentiment, as new investor inflows have turned negative, suggesting that the ongoing sell-off is not being countered by new capital entering the market [2] - In bull markets, capital typically increases during price declines, while early bear markets are characterized by capital withdrawal amid weakness [2] Market Behavior - Current market conditions resemble post-all-time-high transitions, where marginal buyers exit and price movements are driven by internal rotation rather than net inflows, indicating early bear market conditions with contracting liquidity [3] - Without renewed inflows, any upward price movements are likely to be corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal [3] Technical Analysis - Historical cycle data suggests that Bitcoin may face further downside risk, as previous major bear markets saw prices bottom below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from prior cycle peaks [4] - The most recent bear market bottom was approximately 45% below the 0.618 retracement threshold, indicating a pattern of progressively shallower declines [5] - If Bitcoin were to bottom 30% below the current cycle high's 0.618 retracement level, it could still reach around $42,000 [5][6] Market Cycle Indicators - The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows that bearish conditions began in October 2025, but it has not yet entered an extreme bear phase, suggesting that further declines may still be possible [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's newest investors have been experiencing unrealized losses for eight consecutive weeks since November 2024, with short-term holders needing prices to recover above $98,000 to return to profitability [1][2] - The aggregate entry price for recent investors is $98,300, which is a critical threshold for market sentiment, historically indicating a transition from corrective phases to durable uptrends when reclaimed [2] - The $98,000 level is significant due to large option demand around January 30th strikes, which could lead to accelerated upside momentum if breached [3] Market Dynamics - Market makers with short positions on calls at $98,000 and $100,000 may need to buy Bitcoin to maintain delta-neutral hedging, potentially amplifying breakout moves as prices approach these strikes [4] - Bitcoin tested resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, reaching approximately $97,000 before a sharp pullback to $91,800, resulting in $233 million in long liquidations across derivatives markets [4] - Despite volatility, the technical structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows on daily charts, and approximately $250 million in net long positions were filled near $92,000 during the dip, indicating institutional buyers viewed the pullback as an accumulation opportunity [5] Broader Market Context - The broader crypto market continues to underperform traditional risk assets amid multiple converging headwinds, indicating structural challenges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bullish trend for gold is expected to continue, with potential resistance levels identified at $4,664, $4,687, and $4,713, contingent upon a closing price above $4,643 [1] Group 1: Price Targets and Projections - A new high above $4,643 would enable gold to challenge resistance at $4,664, $4,687, and $4,713, with $4,687 being a significant target based on a 161.8% Fibonacci extension [1] - The long-term projection includes a target of $4,766, which corresponds to a 361.8% projection of a rising ABCD pattern connecting the 2018 low of $1,160 and the 2022 low of $1,615 [2] Group 2: Support Levels - Key support levels for potential pullbacks include the recent high of $4,550, the 10-day average at $4,514, and a minor swing high at $4,500, with the 20-day average at $4,554 serving as a critical support level [3] - As long as gold remains above the 20-day average on a daily closing basis, the bullish trend is expected to persist [3] Group 3: Market Strength Indicators - The recent pullback in October found support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating strong underlying demand for gold [4] - A breakout from a rising trend channel confirmed support at a price area similar to the 20-day average, suggesting a strengthening trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - Continued strength in gold prices is expected following a long-term breakout that began in December, with recent price movements confirming the completion of a pullback near key Fibonacci retracement levels and moving averages [1][2]. Price Levels and Support - Current support levels to monitor during potential pullbacks include the previous high of $4,550, an interim swing high of $4,500, and the rising 10-day moving average at $4,556 [2]. - The bullish reversal signs after the 38.2% retracement indicate underlying strength in the trend, suggesting further upside potential [2]. Resistance and Breakout Potential - A breakout above Tuesday's high of $4,635 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, with the next resistance zone identified between $4,664 and $4,713 [3][4]. - The proximity of these targets suggests a range rather than individual price points, with resistance expected upon reaching $4,664 and a decisive breakout above $4,713 indicating significant strength [4]. Demand Indicators - The weekly chart shows strong demand for gold, with dynamic support holding during pullbacks above the 10-week average and a breakout confirmed on a weekly close above the previous high of $4,550 [5].

Core Insights - Pi Coin has experienced renewed selling pressure, with its price dropping below the $0.200 level, indicating weak market confidence among investors [1] - Recent indicators suggest a potential shift in sentiment, with momentum indicators showing a bullish crossover, signaling strengthening upside momentum after a prolonged bearish phase [2][3] Market Activity - Holders of Pi Coin are actively attempting to stabilize the price, indicating a potential recovery as buyers regain control [3] - The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has shifted from outflows to inflows, confirming net buying activity and highlighting growing conviction among Pi Coin holders [5] Price Levels - Pi Coin is currently trading near $0.207, just below the $0.213 resistance level, which is significant as it aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement [6] - Reclaiming the $0.213 level as support could strengthen the recovery structure, with potential advances toward $0.224 if buying pressure continues [7] Risks and Support Levels - If sentiment shifts negatively again, Pi Coin could face renewed selling pressure, potentially dropping below $0.207, with initial support at $0.199 and further support at $0.188 [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Bitcoin, gold, and silver experienced a surge in strength ahead of a potential Fed rate cut, with silver breaking above $60/oz for the first time, up +108% in 2025 [1] - The Fed's interest rate decision is a significant macroeconomic event for Bitcoin and commodity safe havens, with an 87.6% chance of a rate cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Rate Cuts - A Fed rate cut typically benefits Bitcoin by injecting liquidity into financial markets, with gold being the primary beneficiary and silver often lagging initially but outperforming later [3][8] - Markets are already pricing in the expected rate cut, with traders front-running the event [4] Group 3: Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin is trading with a bullish bias, consolidating within an ascending channel since a low of $80,600 on November 21, indicating potential for further upside [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows rising momentum for Bitcoin, with immediate resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $97,015 and a critical Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018 [6] - A breakout above these levels with strong volume could signal a strengthening trend, with potential targets of $103,399 and higher [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent surge above $92,000 has generated optimism among market participants, with expectations that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could trigger a significant rally [1][4][9] Federal Reserve's Role - Analysts from the London Crypto Club suggest that a liquidity boost from the Federal Reserve may serve as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin's price increase, predicting a "dovish surprise" from the Fed [3][9] - The Fed is anticipated to implement a 25 basis points rate cut, with an 86% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool, and even higher at 94% according to Polymarket [5][9] - Historically, lower interest rates have favored risk assets like Bitcoin by making bonds less attractive and encouraging capital flow into higher-yielding markets [6] Market Conditions - Bitcoin is currently at a critical level, with analysts indicating that it must maintain its position above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone to avoid a decline back to April lows near $76,000 [7][8] - The market is eager for a clear macro signal to reset its direction after a turbulent two months that nearly erased all gains for the year [4][9]

Group 1 - The recent price action indicates a rejection at resistance levels, with a swing low of $3,886 and a high of $4,006, forming a small bear flag pattern [1] - Gold has confirmed underlying selling pressure as it fell below the 20-day average, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend [2] - A breakdown below $3,915 will further confirm selling pressure and put the support level at $3,886 at risk [2] Group 2 - Initial downside targets are identified around $3,846 to $3,844, supported by a 50% retracement and the 50-day average [3] - If the support zone fails, the next target is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3,720 [3] - The bull trend that began in late August has not approached the 50-day average as support, which is expected to be tested soon [4] Group 3 - A bearish signal is confirmed with a daily close below the lower boundary line of the bear flag, indicating a preference for sellers [5] - The 50-day convergence zone is critical; holding this level maintains the trend, while a break risks the 61.8% retracement [5] - Today's bearish action persists until the price clears the high of $4,006 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates potential upside targets for crude oil based on the ABCD pattern and key resistance levels, suggesting a bullish outlook if certain price levels are maintained or exceeded [1][2][5]. Upside Targets - The ABCD pattern suggests an initial potential upside target of $65.17, supported by key dynamic resistance indicators including two trendlines and the 50-day moving average [1]. - The 200-day moving average at $65.42 is identified as an initial topside target, with resistance likely on the next approach [2]. Breakout Path - A sustained rally above $63.03 would indicate that buyers have regained control, allowing crude oil to potentially rise above the 50-day average currently at $62.16 [2]. - Holding above the $59.96 swing low for six days, confirmed by two moving averages, adds significance to this level [2]. Trigger Levels - Advancing above today's high of $60.20 would signal strength, with confirmation needed above Monday's high and the top of the five-day range at $61.78 [3]. - A rally above $63.03 would exceed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, positioning crude oil for a potential breakout of two falling trendlines [3]. Downside Risks - The bullish scenario could weaken if prices drop below $59.96, unless a quick recovery occurs [4]. - The 50% retracement at $59.72 serves as potential support, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement becoming a downside target if this level fails [4]. Outlook - A rally above $61.78 is crucial for exiting near-term consolidation, with a further rally above $63.03 needed to confirm strength and higher price potential [5]. - Today's market action supports the ongoing rally, provided that key support levels are maintained [5].