Group 1 - Fresh US economic data indicates easing inflation pressures, but consumers are still under strain, suggesting improving macro conditions with potential near-term volatility for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [1] - US consumer sentiment increased to 52.9 in December, which is nearly 30% lower than a year ago, while short-term inflation expectations dropped to 4.2% and long-term expectations eased to 3.2% [2][3] - Falling inflation expectations suggest households believe price pressures are easing, supporting the Federal Reserve's goal of cooling inflation without maintaining restrictive policies for too long [3][4] Group 2 - Lower inflation expectations reduce the necessity for high interest rates, leading markets to price in earlier or deeper rate cuts, which is significant for risk assets like crypto [5] - Historically, Bitcoin has responded more to liquidity conditions than to consumer confidence or economic growth, indicating a potential positive outlook for the crypto market as financial conditions loosen [5][6] - Lower interest rates typically reduce returns on cash and bonds, leading to a gradual loosening of financial conditions [6]

Mark the dollar. I think we will resume the structural depreciation trend next year. I think there are potentially a number of factors, right, in that the most important is because of the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed.We know that the setting for monetary policy, wherever it's at, will be easier than Orthodox or Orthodox economics would recommend. And that is at a point when the rest of the world is coming, generally coming to the end of their easing cycles. I still think that the trade dynamic ...

Market Trend Analysis - Bitcoin's performance is increasingly tied to the macro environment with each cycle [1] - Bitcoin surges when financial conditions loosen and drops when they tighten, with a 4-6 week lead/lag based on the NFCI financial conditions index [1] - The Fed is expected to end QT in early December, with asset purchases likely to resume soon after [1] - Easing financial conditions are expected to establish a local bottom and initiate higher highs in mid-late December [1] Technical Indicators - Bitcoin is currently oversold across all timeframes [2] - Backtesting 10 years of Bitcoin data against 105 financial indicators reveals a handful of signals predicting BTC 4-6 weeks out [2]

It's Richard Bernstein, CEO and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Adviserss joins me. Okay, so basically you're positioning for a pause. Why is that.>> So Contessa, I think people have forgotten what the Fed's role actually is in the economy and that the Fed does not directly touch the economy. If the Fed is cutting rates, they do so explicitly to lower the cost of funding for banks, which the Fed hopes, keyword hopes will spur more lending, which they hope, again, that word will will spur more ...

Economic Outlook - The Treasury Secretary is seeking a visionary approach to economic policy, emphasizing the importance of forward-thinking rather than solely relying on historical data [2][3][4] - Current economic indicators suggest a weak labor market despite signs of stronger growth, creating a puzzling situation where a growing economy cannot coexist with negative or stagnant job growth [7][8][22] Interest Rate Policy - The discussion around interest rates indicates a cautious approach, with suggestions to reduce rates gradually while monitoring economic data [9][10][18] - The financial conditions for corporate America differ significantly from those for Main Street America, with rising costs for mortgages and loans impacting households [15][19] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty in hiring practices among firms due to tariff-related concerns, leading to a slowdown in payroll growth [11][12][13] - The labor market's current weakness is not reflected in the financial markets, raising questions about the sustainability of economic growth [22][23][35] Structural vs. Cyclical Changes - The potential for structural changes in the labor market poses a challenge for monetary policy, which is typically designed to address cyclical fluctuations [35][36] - The distinction between cyclical and structural changes is critical for future policy decisions, as misjudging the nature of the changes could lead to ineffective responses [37]

Monetary Policy & Economic Data - The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) typically meets every six weeks to vote on monetary policy [3] - Access to high-quality data is crucial for monetary policy decisions, but decisions aren't made daily [2] - The industry emphasizes forward-looking policies, considering future expectations for inflation and output gap [4][17] - Financial conditions are the channel through which monetary policy operates [27] - Monetary policy works with lags, making it inappropriate to solely rely on backward-looking data [16][17] Inflation & Housing - The industry expects a significant disinflation in the services component of inflation indices, driven by shelter costs [7] - Housing costs, particularly rent surges and shelter cost increases, are a major component of inflation indices [5][6] - Immigration shocks have impacted housing rents, initially pushing them up and potentially reversing to negative net migration [35] - Services inflation, particularly driven by housing/shelter costs, is considered the most persistent and sticky part of inflation [33] Neutral Rate & Economic Growth - The speaker's conception of the neutral rate is around 05% (a half), based on a weighted average of model-implied and market-implied rates [9] - Policies like deregulation can expand the potential output of the economy faster than actual output, creating a positive output gap [13][14] - Fiscal deficits in February through August are about $400 billion at an annualized rate below the comparable period in the previous fiscal year [28] Tariffs & Trade - The elasticity of demand in imports is much higher than the elasticity of supply, suggesting foreign producers bear the burden of tariffs [40] - Flat import prices could be due to a weaker dollar offsetting the decrease in dollar prices from tariffs [45] - The speaker compares prices of import-intensive core goods to overall core goods to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [54]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the current state of the economy, the labor market, and the implications of monetary policy adjustments, particularly the neutral interest rate and its relationship with fiscal and immigration policies [1][11][12]. Economic Projections - There is a divergence in projections among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the neutral rate, with some members advocating for a quicker adjustment to a more neutral policy stance [5][6]. - The governor believes that the neutral rate has decreased due to significant changes in fiscal policy and immigration, which have impacted national savings and population growth [9][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The governor argues that current monetary policy is excessively tight and needs to adjust quickly to avoid negative consequences for the economy, particularly regarding employment [11][12][21]. - The relationship between monetary policy and financial conditions is complex, with the governor emphasizing that not all financial conditions are uniformly loose, particularly in the housing market [15][16]. Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is expected to play a significant role in inflation dynamics, with population growth impacting demand for housing and subsequently shelter inflation [31][32]. - A decrease in population growth due to changes in immigration policy could lead to a relative change in shelter inflation, highlighting the importance of supply and demand in the housing market [32][33]. Immigration Policy Effects - The governor anticipates that immigration trends will continue to influence the economy and the neutral rate for the foreseeable future, suggesting that the impact of immigration is not merely a short-term phenomenon [35].

All right, let's start off with your thesis here, Bill. You're saying that the weakness in the housing market, that's a sign that the Fed needs to cut rates even more than it has already. So, I don't want to put this in context, though.The Fed's cut rates by about 75 basis points over the last year and mortgage rates are up about 15 basis points. So, how is that going to help when the housing market seems to be really guided by some other factors. >> Well, the housing market is is one where it's very sensit ...

Market Trends - The effective federal funds rate experienced a slight increase on Monday, an uncommon occurrence [1] - This increase triggered selling activity in futures linked to the benchmark rate [1] - The rate hike potentially indicates a tightening of financial conditions in the near future [1]

Market Overview - Major indices including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed in the green, marking a record-setting week, potentially influenced by rate cuts and trade dynamics [2][5][6] - The Dow rose by approximately 172 points (0.4%), S&P 500 increased by 30 points (0.5%), and Nasdaq composite gained 0.7% [6] Sector Performance - Big tech led the gains, with over 1% increase in that sector, while utilities and communication services also performed well [7][8] - Energy sector was the biggest loser, down 1.3%, along with declines in real estate, consumer staples, and healthcare [8] Company Highlights - FedEx reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings per share for Q1 and reinstated its full-year sales and profit outlook, leading to a stock increase of 2.3% [9] - Apple shares rose by 3.2% following the launch of new iPhone models, marking the first time since 2020 that multiple new designs were introduced [12] - Brighthouse Financial's stock surged by 27% amid reports of a potential acquisition at $65 to $70 per share [13] - Oracle's shares increased by 4% as the company is in talks for a $20 billion AI cloud computing deal with Metta [14] Decliners - Homebuilder Lennar's stock fell by 4.2% due to a forecast for quarterly home orders that missed analyst estimates, reflecting affordability concerns [15] - Intel shares dropped by 3.2% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, citing rich valuation despite a previous rally [17] - Shares of StubHub fell 10% following its IPO, which has underperformed since its launch [18] Economic Indicators - Financial conditions have loosened due to recent rate cuts, with Fed members expected to clarify their voting rationale in the upcoming week [4][21] - Coffee futures pulled back due to an improving supply outlook, with Arabica futures falling by as much as 6.5% amid tariff discussions [22][24]