7 July 2025 | 2:01PM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: DM Data Surprises Skew Negative Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Chart of the Week Exhibit 1: Our GS Macro Data Assessment (MAP) Surprise Indices Have Turned Negative Across DMs Over the Last Several Weeks Our daily MAP surprise indices summarize the importance and strength (relative to consen ...

23 June 2025 | 10:50PM HKT China: GS Economic Indicators Update: June (Song) Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind our proprietary economic indicators can be downloaded here. (Methodology notes available in the appendix.) GS Proprietary Economic Indicators in April Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, NBS, CEIC Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asi ...

全球经济增长受贸易壁垒上升、政策不确定性加剧等因素影响显著放缓，2025年增速预计降至2.3%，为2008年以来最低（除全球衰退年份）。新兴市场和 发展中经济体（EMDEs）增长乏力，缩小与发达经济体人均收入差距的进程受阻，贫困 reduction 进程缓慢。各区域经济前景分化， downside risks突出，需 全球合作与结构性改革应对。 全球经济展望 - 增长放缓：2025年全球GDP增速2.3%，2026-2027年温和回升至2.5%。发达经济体增速降至1.2%，美国、欧元区受贸易政策冲击显著。EMDEs增速3.8%， 中国增速4.5%，印度6.3%，但多数国家增长低于预期。 - 贸易与通胀：全球贸易增速2025年降至1.8%，商品价格下跌10%，能源价格受OPEC+增产和需求疲软影响显著。全球通胀2025年预计2.9%，核心通胀因服 务价格压力持续高企。 - 金融市场：全球金融条件收紧，EMDEs资本外流、汇率贬值压力加大，主权债利差扩大，但短期波动后部分恢复。 区域经济前景 主要风险与政策建议 - 风险挑战：贸易壁垒进一步升级、全球金融条件收紧、地缘政治冲突加剧、极端天气频发、新兴市场债务危机。 ...

9 June 2025 | 5:29PM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Global Hard Data Show Resilience Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Chart of the Week Exhibit 1: Global Hard Data Show Resilience as Soft Data Normalizes Our daily MAP surprise indices summarize the importance and strength (relative to consensus expectations) of economic indicators worldwide. Ac ...

27 May 2025 | 10:02PM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Growth Signal From Soft Data Improves in the US Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Chart of the Week Exhibit 1: The Growth Signal From US Soft Data Has Improved on the Back of a Better Trade Policy Outlook -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2023-06-01 2023-0 ...

Investment Rating - The report expects US GDP growth to slow from 2.5% last year to just 0.5% this year on a Q4/Q4 basis [2][5]. Core Insights - The slowdown is largely attributed to higher tariffs, tighter financial conditions, and increased policy uncertainty [2][5]. - Initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, and ISM services indices are identified as timely indicators of slower growth [2][12]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to decline as disposable income is affected by rising consumer prices due to tariffs [29][37]. - Capital expenditure (capex) growth is expected to be depressed, with a peak drag anticipated in the second half of 2025 [42][44]. - The labor market is showing initial signs of weakness, with jobless claims being a key indicator [49][54]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - US GDP growth is projected to decrease significantly, reflecting the impact of tariffs and financial conditions [2][5]. - Historical data suggests that hard economic indicators typically show signs of weakness about four months after a growth slowdown begins [20][62]. Consumer Spending - Higher tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices, leading to a slowdown in consumer spending as disposable income declines [29][37]. - Core retail sales are highlighted as a reliable indicator of consumer spending during growth slowdowns [37][38]. Capital Expenditure - Tighter financial conditions and policy uncertainty are likely to negatively impact capex growth, with a significant drag expected in 2025 [42][44]. - Historical analysis indicates that soft data on capex tends to deteriorate before hard data, which may take longer to reflect the slowdown [46][48]. Labor Market - Initial jobless claims are considered a timely indicator of economic slowdown, with expectations of increased claims as the economic outlook worsens [49][54]. - The report notes that while layoffs remain low, hiring in sectors like healthcare and education may slow down significantly [41][54].

7 April 2025 | 8:15PM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Reciprocal Tariffs Trigger a Sharp Tightening in Financial Conditions Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@ ...