Bitcoin is increasingly beholden to the macro backdrop with each passing cycle.Looking at the NFCI financial conditions index, BTC surges as financial conditions loosen and drops as financial conditions tighten/stagnate → this has happened reliably with a 4-6 week lead/lag.The Fed ends QT in early December. A resumption of asset purchases is likely soon after.With financial conditions set to ease further, we will probably fully set the local bottom and begin making higher highs mid-late December.Not to ment ...

It's Richard Bernstein, CEO and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Adviserss joins me. Okay, so basically you're positioning for a pause. Why is that.>> So Contessa, I think people have forgotten what the Fed's role actually is in the economy and that the Fed does not directly touch the economy. If the Fed is cutting rates, they do so explicitly to lower the cost of funding for banks, which the Fed hopes, keyword hopes will spur more lending, which they hope, again, that word will will spur more ...

Economic Outlook - The Treasury Secretary is seeking a visionary approach to economic policy, emphasizing the importance of forward-thinking rather than solely relying on historical data [2][3][4] - Current economic indicators suggest a weak labor market despite signs of stronger growth, creating a puzzling situation where a growing economy cannot coexist with negative or stagnant job growth [7][8][22] Interest Rate Policy - The discussion around interest rates indicates a cautious approach, with suggestions to reduce rates gradually while monitoring economic data [9][10][18] - The financial conditions for corporate America differ significantly from those for Main Street America, with rising costs for mortgages and loans impacting households [15][19] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty in hiring practices among firms due to tariff-related concerns, leading to a slowdown in payroll growth [11][12][13] - The labor market's current weakness is not reflected in the financial markets, raising questions about the sustainability of economic growth [22][23][35] Structural vs. Cyclical Changes - The potential for structural changes in the labor market poses a challenge for monetary policy, which is typically designed to address cyclical fluctuations [35][36] - The distinction between cyclical and structural changes is critical for future policy decisions, as misjudging the nature of the changes could lead to ineffective responses [37]

Monetary Policy & Economic Data - The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) typically meets every six weeks to vote on monetary policy [3] - Access to high-quality data is crucial for monetary policy decisions, but decisions aren't made daily [2] - The industry emphasizes forward-looking policies, considering future expectations for inflation and output gap [4][17] - Financial conditions are the channel through which monetary policy operates [27] - Monetary policy works with lags, making it inappropriate to solely rely on backward-looking data [16][17] Inflation & Housing - The industry expects a significant disinflation in the services component of inflation indices, driven by shelter costs [7] - Housing costs, particularly rent surges and shelter cost increases, are a major component of inflation indices [5][6] - Immigration shocks have impacted housing rents, initially pushing them up and potentially reversing to negative net migration [35] - Services inflation, particularly driven by housing/shelter costs, is considered the most persistent and sticky part of inflation [33] Neutral Rate & Economic Growth - The speaker's conception of the neutral rate is around 05% (a half), based on a weighted average of model-implied and market-implied rates [9] - Policies like deregulation can expand the potential output of the economy faster than actual output, creating a positive output gap [13][14] - Fiscal deficits in February through August are about $400 billion at an annualized rate below the comparable period in the previous fiscal year [28] Tariffs & Trade - The elasticity of demand in imports is much higher than the elasticity of supply, suggesting foreign producers bear the burden of tariffs [40] - Flat import prices could be due to a weaker dollar offsetting the decrease in dollar prices from tariffs [45] - The speaker compares prices of import-intensive core goods to overall core goods to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [54]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the current state of the economy, the labor market, and the implications of monetary policy adjustments, particularly the neutral interest rate and its relationship with fiscal and immigration policies [1][11][12]. Economic Projections - There is a divergence in projections among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the neutral rate, with some members advocating for a quicker adjustment to a more neutral policy stance [5][6]. - The governor believes that the neutral rate has decreased due to significant changes in fiscal policy and immigration, which have impacted national savings and population growth [9][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The governor argues that current monetary policy is excessively tight and needs to adjust quickly to avoid negative consequences for the economy, particularly regarding employment [11][12][21]. - The relationship between monetary policy and financial conditions is complex, with the governor emphasizing that not all financial conditions are uniformly loose, particularly in the housing market [15][16]. Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is expected to play a significant role in inflation dynamics, with population growth impacting demand for housing and subsequently shelter inflation [31][32]. - A decrease in population growth due to changes in immigration policy could lead to a relative change in shelter inflation, highlighting the importance of supply and demand in the housing market [32][33]. Immigration Policy Effects - The governor anticipates that immigration trends will continue to influence the economy and the neutral rate for the foreseeable future, suggesting that the impact of immigration is not merely a short-term phenomenon [35].

All right, let's start off with your thesis here, Bill. You're saying that the weakness in the housing market, that's a sign that the Fed needs to cut rates even more than it has already. So, I don't want to put this in context, though.The Fed's cut rates by about 75 basis points over the last year and mortgage rates are up about 15 basis points. So, how is that going to help when the housing market seems to be really guided by some other factors. >> Well, the housing market is is one where it's very sensit ...

Market Trends - The effective federal funds rate experienced a slight increase on Monday, an uncommon occurrence [1] - This increase triggered selling activity in futures linked to the benchmark rate [1] - The rate hike potentially indicates a tightening of financial conditions in the near future [1]

Market Overview - Major indices including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed in the green, marking a record-setting week, potentially influenced by rate cuts and trade dynamics [2][5][6] - The Dow rose by approximately 172 points (0.4%), S&P 500 increased by 30 points (0.5%), and Nasdaq composite gained 0.7% [6] Sector Performance - Big tech led the gains, with over 1% increase in that sector, while utilities and communication services also performed well [7][8] - Energy sector was the biggest loser, down 1.3%, along with declines in real estate, consumer staples, and healthcare [8] Company Highlights - FedEx reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings per share for Q1 and reinstated its full-year sales and profit outlook, leading to a stock increase of 2.3% [9] - Apple shares rose by 3.2% following the launch of new iPhone models, marking the first time since 2020 that multiple new designs were introduced [12] - Brighthouse Financial's stock surged by 27% amid reports of a potential acquisition at $65 to $70 per share [13] - Oracle's shares increased by 4% as the company is in talks for a $20 billion AI cloud computing deal with Metta [14] Decliners - Homebuilder Lennar's stock fell by 4.2% due to a forecast for quarterly home orders that missed analyst estimates, reflecting affordability concerns [15] - Intel shares dropped by 3.2% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, citing rich valuation despite a previous rally [17] - Shares of StubHub fell 10% following its IPO, which has underperformed since its launch [18] Economic Indicators - Financial conditions have loosened due to recent rate cuts, with Fed members expected to clarify their voting rationale in the upcoming week [4][21] - Coffee futures pulled back due to an improving supply outlook, with Arabica futures falling by as much as 6.5% amid tariff discussions [22][24]

Market Growth and Performance - The markets unit has experienced growth for 13 consecutive quarters, with expectations of mid-single-digit growth for the upcoming earnings report [2][3] - The equities business has been a significant focus for the company over the past four years, supported by increased financial resources to assist clients [3][4] - The rates business within the FICC sector has shown signs of improvement, with anticipation that the Federal Reserve's actions may further support this growth [4][5] Economic Conditions and Federal Reserve Impact - There is a tension between the push for the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions and the current state of financial markets, which appear to be favorable for large corporations [5][6] - Smaller businesses are more sensitive to short-term rates and may not have the same access to capital markets, highlighting a disparity in economic conditions [6][8] - The potential impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts on growth and M&A activity remains uncertain, with a need to analyze different sectors of the economy [9][10] Regulatory Environment and Competition - The current regulatory landscape is seen as providing clarity, which may allow the company to take on more risk and compete effectively with private asset managers [18][19] - There is optimism surrounding reduced regulation in various industries, which could benefit the broader economy [19][20] - The company is focusing on strengthening its international business while maintaining a dominant position in the U.S. market [21][22] Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - The company is looking to expand its capabilities and improve consistency in service delivery across various business lines [25][26] - There is an emphasis on execution and delivering value to clients, with a recognition of the importance of organic growth opportunities [25][26] - The leadership transition is expected to bring excitement and positive responses from the team, indicating a forward-looking approach [27][28]

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Expectations - The market anticipates approximately 75 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, along with a total of six cuts by the end of next year, potentially leading to disappointment if the Federal Reserve (Fed) doesn't meet these expectations [1][2] - Market pricing suggests a lower terminal Fed funds rate than the Fed's own projections, indicating expectations for a more aggressive pace of cuts [2] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the Fed will commit to an October rate cut, with the approach likely remaining meeting by meeting [3] Inflation & Economic Indicators - Concerns exist that aggressive rate cuts by the Fed could lead to rising long-end yields and inflation expectations, which would be unfavorable [4] - Some inflation metrics are showing reacceleration, which is a concern, although the Fed is currently focused on the employment picture [5] - Recent CPI prints indicate broad-based gains across multiple categories, not just goods inflation, suggesting that factors beyond tariffs are contributing [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been muted so far, but it's possible that this could change in future data [7] Market Reactions & Asset Performance - Ten-year Treasury yields tend to rally on Fed meeting dates, but July saw the opposite, with yields rising [8] - If the Fed doesn't sound as dovish as the market expects, there's a chance that yields could rise, especially with 10-year yields near 4% [9] - The stock market is optimistic about rate cuts, but the question is whether the market is well-positioned even if the Fed doesn't cut as much as expected [10] - Easy financial conditions are already priced in due to expectations of a very easy policy path, including a weaker dollar and tighter credit spreads [11] - Gold is emerging as a safe-haven asset, while the dollar's performance is less pronounced, and the rise in equities is partly attributed to the weakening dollar [13][14]