Well, good morning, Steve. Thank you for joining us on this non jobs day. Jobs day.We get no government primary economic data because of the shutdown right now. So let me start by asking if that continues. As a member of the Open Market Committee, would you feel comfortable voting for a significant cut in interest rates if you don't have data on employment and on inflation.Good morning and thanks for having me. Look, I think it's important to recognize, first of all, that as you're pointing out, access to h ...

Governor, welcome to the program, sir. We've got tons of time to talk about what's going to happen next. Your thoughts on the labor market, the balance of risk, the broader economy.I actually wanted to lead the conversation with this one. Governor, what was your experience like. I'm sure this was unexpected 12 months ago.What was it like walking into the room and was it different to what you expected. Good morning and thanks for having me. It's great to see you again.Look, you know, walking into the room, y ...

All right, let's start off with your thesis here, Bill. You're saying that the weakness in the housing market, that's a sign that the Fed needs to cut rates even more than it has already. So, I don't want to put this in context, though.The Fed's cut rates by about 75 basis points over the last year and mortgage rates are up about 15 basis points. So, how is that going to help when the housing market seems to be really guided by some other factors. >> Well, the housing market is is one where it's very sensit ...

The effective federal funds rate edged higher on Monday, a rare move that sparked selling in futures tied to the benchmark and may signal tighter financial conditions ahead https://t.co/abz33iy3tE ...

And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick here with Katie Greifeld taking you through to that closing bell with the global simulcast. It starts now. Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec in the radio booth. Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, including our partnership with YouTube on what is a record setting week Carol Massar maybe fueled by rate cuts, maybe fueled by the air trade, maybe fueled by all of the above. I don't know. You're right. But ...

Market Growth and Performance - The markets unit has experienced growth for 13 consecutive quarters, with expectations of mid-single-digit growth for the upcoming earnings report [2][3] - The equities business has been a significant focus for the company over the past four years, supported by increased financial resources to assist clients [3][4] - The rates business within the FICC sector has shown signs of improvement, with anticipation that the Federal Reserve's actions may further support this growth [4][5] Economic Conditions and Federal Reserve Impact - There is a tension between the push for the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions and the current state of financial markets, which appear to be favorable for large corporations [5][6] - Smaller businesses are more sensitive to short-term rates and may not have the same access to capital markets, highlighting a disparity in economic conditions [6][8] - The potential impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts on growth and M&A activity remains uncertain, with a need to analyze different sectors of the economy [9][10] Regulatory Environment and Competition - The current regulatory landscape is seen as providing clarity, which may allow the company to take on more risk and compete effectively with private asset managers [18][19] - There is optimism surrounding reduced regulation in various industries, which could benefit the broader economy [19][20] - The company is focusing on strengthening its international business while maintaining a dominant position in the U.S. market [21][22] Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - The company is looking to expand its capabilities and improve consistency in service delivery across various business lines [25][26] - There is an emphasis on execution and delivering value to clients, with a recognition of the importance of organic growth opportunities [25][26] - The leadership transition is expected to bring excitement and positive responses from the team, indicating a forward-looking approach [27][28]

Next guest warns the Fed may disappoint Wall Street when that meeting happens in about 20 hours or so. Subadra Rajapa is ahead of US race for associate general. Subra, great to have you with us.Um there does seem to be a lot of expectation built into at least 75 basis points through the end of the year. So is that where the disappointment may lie. >> Yeah, it's not just the 75 basis points up to the end of the year.You're also looking at a total of six cuts by the end of next year and the terminal Fed funds ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - Ironside's macroeconomics director of research has been advocating for 100 basis points (1%) of rate cuts this year, anticipating an economic downturn [1] - The market views a 0.25% rate cut as a bonus, while Ironside believes more significant action is needed to address the real economy [2] - The Fed's tightening policy, primarily through rate hikes, has created tight financial conditions, especially for small businesses with floating rate loans [3] Regional Banks & Small Businesses - The spread between the return on equity of regional banks and large banks is near historic wides, approximately 4% [3] - Small banks are struggling to earn their cost of capital, hindering credit creation and lending activities [4] - The Fed's tightening policy has disproportionately impacted the small business sector, reflected in the underperformance of the Russell 2000 [4] Impact on Specific Sectors - A steeper yield curve, facilitated by rate cuts, is crucial for reviving the housing market and lowering financing rates for floating rate borrowers [5] - Labor market data may be overestimating monthly job growth by nearly 80,000 jobs per month, potentially indicating zero employment growth or even a recession in the labor market [6] - While financial conditions remain relatively loose for those financing out the curve, Main Street businesses are facing tough conditions [7]

Market Outlook & Earnings - The market's current rally is partly fueled by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially around 50 basis points [1][3][4] - Q1 and Q2 earnings have exceeded expectations, driving the market to new highs [2] - The market is counting on earnings continuing to make new highs [2] - Technology and communication services account for 40% of the S&P 500 market capitalization and 28% of earnings [7] - Analyst consensus expectations show small caps are showing signs of life [11] Valuation & Potential - The valuation multiple is around 22, which is considered acceptable [3] - A potential "melt-up" scenario could see the price-to-earnings ratio rise to 25, reminiscent of 1999 [5] - If the Fed surprises with a 50 basis point cut, the S&P target could be revised upwards to 7,000 [4][5] - The "impressive 493" (companies outside the Magnificent Seven) also had good earnings and are expected to contribute to market growth [8][9] Risks & Uncertainties - A debt crisis scare, potentially triggered by the government having to refund $500 billion to $1 trillion due to overturned tariffs, could derail a year-end rally [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global financial markets, particularly equities and bonds, with insights into macroeconomic conditions and investment flows. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Equity Market Sentiment**: Macro managers remain cautious in equities, with a noted negative flow of -$6 billion in US equities as of August 13, 2025, contrasting with positive flows in bonds, which totaled $17.8 billion [3][2][8]. 2. **Foreign Investment Trends**: Foreign investors accelerated their buying of US equities in June, with net purchases reaching $163 billion, up from $116 billion in May. This includes significant contributions from Caribbean hedge funds and foreign official investors [48][51]. 3. **Financial Conditions**: Financial conditions are supportive for growth and risk assets in both the US and the euro area, with a shift towards loosening lending standards reported in the Euro area for the first time since late 2021 [26][27]. 4. **Equity Valuation Framework**: The long-term fair value framework for the S&P 500 suggests a year-end 2026 projection close to the current price, indicating that the market is pricing in much of the forecasted improvement in earnings [60][84]. 5. **Bond Market Analysis**: The current level of 10-year UST yields is considered modestly cheap (10-20 basis points), with forecasts suggesting downward pressure on yields due to expected Fed rate cuts [84][71]. Additional Important Insights 1. **ETF Flows**: The report highlights that inflows into spot ETFs and purchases by corporate treasuries are driving Ethereum's outperformance, contrasting with the flatlining of foreign ETF investments in US equities [85][54]. 2. **Short Interest Metrics**: The gap between the short interest of SPY and QQQ ETFs is viewed as a bullish signal for the equity market, reflecting macro managers' cautious stance [21][22]. 3. **Credit Creation**: US bank lending growth has accelerated, averaging an annualized pace of around 5.3% year-to-date, indicating a supportive environment for credit creation [37][39]. 4. **Sector Performance**: The report notes varying performance across sectors, with technology and communication services showing strong positioning compared to defensive sectors [6][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into market sentiment, investment flows, and financial conditions affecting equities and bonds.