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Should You Buy Nu Holdings (NU) Stock Before February?
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-29 20:15
Core Viewpoint - Nu Holdings is positioned for significant growth, with a stock price increase of over 50% in the past year, driven by strong customer, revenue, and earnings growth [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Growth - NuBank, a subsidiary of Nu Holdings, is the largest digital-only direct bank in Latin America, primarily operating in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, and has expanded rapidly compared to traditional banks [3]. - The company has launched additional lending services, e-commerce solutions, and cryptocurrency trading tools, resulting in customer growth from 53.9 million to 127.0 million between the end of 2021 and Q3 2025, with an activity rate increase from 76% to 83% [4]. - Average revenue per active customer (ARPAC) has nearly tripled from $4.50 to $13.40, while the average monthly cost to serve each active customer has remained stable at $0.90, indicating effective margin management [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, Nu's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 89%, achieving profitability on a GAAP basis in 2023, with earnings per share (EPS) nearly doubling in 2024 [6]. - Year-over-year customer growth has shown a deceleration, with a drop from 23% in Q3 2024 to 16% in Q3 2025, while revenue growth stabilized at 42% in Q3 2025 [9]. - Gross margin decreased from 46% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025, and net interest margin also declined, reflecting increased funding costs in expanding markets [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts project revenue and EPS growth of 36% and 46% for the full year, with a CAGR of 30% and 37% from 2025 to 2027, as Nu continues to expand its customer base and cross-sell financial products [11]. - The acquisition of a banking license in Mexico and an application for a full banking license in Brazil are expected to enhance growth and compliance with regulations, while a U.S. bank charter application could facilitate entry into the U.S. market [12]. - Strategic partnerships, such as the integration of NuPay with Amazon's Brazilian website, are anticipated to strengthen Nu's competitive position against both fintech and traditional banking competitors [13]. Group 4: Investment Consideration - At a stock price of $17, Nu Holdings is considered reasonably valued at 20 times next year's earnings, with potential for increased attention if macroeconomic concerns in Latin America ease [14].