RT Horizon (@JoinHorizon_)NEW EPISODE: Over The Horizon 🎙️James Check (@_Checkmatey_), Co-Founder of _Checkonchain joins me to discuss:– The fading four-year cycle– Bitcoin’s 2025 chopsolidation– Sell-side pressure and market absorption– The probable paths forward ...

Hey everyone and thanks for dropping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So we had a pretty good week.We saw Bitcoin close back above the bull market support band which remember this late in t ...

Market Outlook - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle may be ending, potentially leading to a final blowoff top followed by a market crash, although this outlook is not universally agreed upon [1] - Bitcoin is at a pivotal point, with its structural bull market intact but at risk; a drop below $107,000 raises fears of falling below $100,000, while exceeding $118,000 suggests new all-time highs are possible [1][4] - Galaxy Digital initially predicted Bitcoin could reach $185,000 by the end of 2025, but now considers $130,000 to $150,000 a more likely range [3] - The four-year cycle may no longer be in place, as the price trend since November 2022 resembles a slow, steady climb rather than previous cycles with blowoff tops and troughs [18][19] - A potential bear market is expected to be less severe than previous ones, with a drop to $95,000 representing a 25% decline from all-time highs, which is mild compared to historical drawdowns of 70-90% [22][23] Market Factors - Bitcoin's recent drops are not due to fundamental issues but rather to macro factors and anxiety in equity markets, trading like a macro asset [9] - Concerns about AI capital expenditure (capex) and its potential impact on equity markets could negatively affect all markets, including Bitcoin [8] - Government investment in AI resembles a space race or Manhattan project, with significantly more funding than was allocated to the internet in the 1990s [8] - Negative tariff headlines or squishiness in equity markets could negatively impact Bitcoin [17] Institutionalization and Demand - Significant selling of older Bitcoin coins has been absorbed by buyers at higher prices, indicating strong demand and bullish sentiment [11][12] - The ability of the Bitcoin market to absorb a $10 billion sale (80,000 Bitcoin) from an OG is incredibly bullish, with ETFs, advisors, and institutions being the primary buyers [13] - Morgan Stanley is allowing its 10,000 registered investment advisors to recommend Bitcoin allocations up to 4% in client portfolios, signaling increased institutional adoption [15] - The fair price for Bitcoin is being agreed upon at or near $100,000, supported by a realized cap of over $1 trillion and substantial Bitcoin purchases above $100,000 [26]

Market Cycle Analysis - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, with peaks in Q4 of 2013, 2017, and 2021, is unlikely to continue [1][3] - The extension of the credit cycle is anticipated due to cheaper and more plentiful money, particularly in the United States and to a lesser extent in China [3] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The US Treasury's issuance schedule in 2022 drained a $250 billion (half trillion dollar) facility at the Fed, releasing liquidity into the markets, which mirrored the decline in the risk program [1] - The risk program has now reached zero [1] Potential Economic Stimulus - Discussions around bank credit growth, housing emergency measures to unlock home equity, and tariff-funded stimulus checks suggest potential liquidity injections [2] - Political rhetoric favors policies that promote liquidity growth and reduce the price of money [3]

Is the four-year cycle real or a coincidence? And what does this cycle's set up look like?Dig into today's newsletter to find outhttps://t.co/KTISP6nTTv ...

I think the four-year cycle, the metronome that we've had since the beginning of Bitcoin is no more. ETH has been a massive redemption arc now. I think it's definitely going to go and go above the recent 5k high.It's like if you were an OG, you've got into Bitcoin for other reasons, not just to make money. And now you've seen it's been co-opted by Tradfire and now it's my my opportunity to exercise my right to sell it and live a life of dreams. All right, it's a great pleasure to have Nick Puckan, the CEO o ...

Market Analysis - Industry suggests the traditional four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market may be obsolete [1] - Industry anticipates the beginning of an Altcoin bull run [1] Investment Strategy - Industry recommends further investigation via provided link to understand the rationale behind the shift in market cycles [1]

This cycle isn't peaking in the coming few months, it's going to be substantially longer and higher for #Bitcoin and #Altcoins.The four-year cycle is history. ...