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Steven Cress' Top 10 Stocks For H2 2025
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-06-23 18:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatile market conditions in 2025, highlighting the performance of top stock picks and the impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on market dynamics [7][9][19]. Market Overview - The US equity market experienced significant fluctuations due to tariff announcements, leading to a major correction in April 2025, with the S&P 500 dropping approximately 15% from its 52-week high [9][10]. - A barbell investment approach was recommended to diversify portfolios during market corrections, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and good dividend yields [10][13]. Stock Performance - The top 10 stocks recommended at the beginning of 2025 saw a performance swing from over 20% gains to below 20%, reflecting a nearly 40% change during the volatile period [15][16]. - By mid-2025, many of these stocks rebounded as fear subsided and investors returned to fundamentals [16]. Economic Indicators - Inflation rates showed a surprising decrease, with core CPI at 0.1% for May, and there is speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [22][23]. - The recession risk appears less severe than previously anticipated, with GDP growth projected to exceed 2% annualized after a decline in Q1 [23][31]. Top Stock Picks - **Barclays (NYSE: BCS)**: A diversified bank with a market cap of $62 billion, ranked 12 out of 691 in financial institutions, offering a dividend yield of 2.47% and a forward EPS growth rate of 28% [80][81]. - **Prudential (NYSE: PUK)**: Based in Hong Kong, this insurance company ranks 1 out of 19 in its industry, with a forward dividend yield of 1.89% and a long-term EPS growth rate of 17% [86][89]. - **FinVolution (NYSE: FINV)**: A fintech company with a market cap of $2.2 billion, ranking 7 out of 691 in financials, showing a 255% operating cash flow growth rate [93][94]. - **Power Solutions International (NASDAQ: PSIX)**: A small-cap company with a market cap of $1.23 billion, ranked number one in the industrials sector, with a one-year return of 835% [97][99]. - **New Gold (NYSE: NGD)**: Focused on gold, silver, and copper exploration, with an operating cash flow growth rate of 56% [107][110]. - **Gold Fields Limited (NYSE: GFI)**: A diversified mining company with a 37% EPS forward long-term growth rate, ranking 5 in the materials sector [111][113]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes a data-driven approach to stock selection, utilizing a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy that combines growth, value, profitability, and momentum metrics [40][42]. - The new PRO Quant Portfolio offers a higher frequency of stock ideas, designed for active investors, with a focus on global stocks across various market caps [59][64].