GLP - 1研发竞赛
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【医药】巨头加码验证减肥药赛道价值,看好产业链黄金发展期——医药生物行业跨市场周报(20250928)(王明瑞)
光大证券研究· 2025-09-29 23:06
Market Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index declined by 2.20%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.27 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.29 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 sub-industries [4] - The H-share Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 2.79%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 1.01 percentage points [4] Key Insights - Pfizer announced the acquisition of Metsera and its next-generation weight loss product portfolio for approximately $4.9 billion, with additional contingent value rights potentially adding up to $2.25 billion per share based on specific clinical and regulatory milestones [5] - This acquisition follows similar moves by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, highlighting the significant potential and long-term viability of the weight loss drug market, as well as the industry's urgent demand for next-generation therapies [5] - The global GLP-1 research and development competition has entered its "second half," where depth of the supply chain, technological iteration capabilities, and cost control will be critical for success [5] - The commercialization of domestic weight loss drugs is imminent, making sales capabilities a crucial factor for future competitive advantages, with companies that have leading R&D progress and strong sales execution likely to dominate [5] - The entire GLP-1 supply chain is expected to continue its upward trend in market conditions due to sustained demand expansion [5] Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes the need to select investment opportunities structurally, focusing on the core contradiction between payment willingness and payment capability amid complex changes in population structure, policy frameworks, and economic environments [6] - Three main directions are highlighted for investment: support for in-hospital policies (innovative drugs and devices), expansion of public demand (blood products, home medical devices, weight loss drug supply chain), and an upward cycle for overseas sales (heparin, respiratory joint inspections) [7]