Summary of Giant Network Group (002558 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Network Group - **Ticker**: 002558 CH - **Sector**: Software - **Market Cap**: CNY 70,289 million (USD 9,871 million) as of 03 Nov 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q Revenue**: Increased 116% year-on-year to CNY 1,706 million - **3Q Net Profit**: Grew 81% year-on-year to CNY 640 million, below estimates by approximately 17% due to overestimated revenue bookings - **Contract Liabilities**: Increased 50% quarter-on-quarter in 3Q, indicating future revenue recognition from previous billings [2][20][24] Core Insights - **Supernatural Action Squad**: - Achieved solid daily active users (DAU) and billings post-summer holidays, ranking 8th among iOS top-grossing games as of 31 October [2][3] - Expected to drive long-term growth with significant commercialisation potential, including promotions during holiday seasons [3][12][33] - Future overseas launch in 2026 anticipated to contribute incremental revenue [3] - **Earnings Estimates**: - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 raised by 8.3%, 18.3%, and 36.4% respectively, reflecting strong DAU performance [4][24] - Net profit estimates for the same period increased by 2.1%, 19.5%, and 25.8% respectively [27] - **Target Price Adjustment**: - Target price raised to CNY 51.80 from CNY 43.30, implying a potential upside of approximately 43% from current levels [5][32] Growth Opportunities - **User Growth**: The game is still in the early stages of user growth, with significant DAU increases noted during peak seasons [3] - **ARPU Potential**: There is substantial upside for average revenue per user (ARPU) as many paid features are yet to be developed [3] - **Product Pipeline**: Upcoming products like Ming Jiang Sha and Five Thousand Years are in testing phases, with expected launches in late 2025 or early 2026 [3] Financial Ratios and Valuation - **2025-2027 Net Profit CAGR**: Estimated at 41%, above the peer average of 29% [5][32] - **PE Ratio**: Target PE multiple maintained at 25x, above the industry average forward PE of 16x for 2026 [5][32] - **EPS Estimates**: Adjusted EPS for 2026 raised to CNY 2.07 from CNY 1.73 [5][8] Risks and Considerations - **Product Launch Delays**: Potential delays in game launches could lead to earnings volatility [37] - **Gross Billings Uncertainty**: Risks associated with gross billings and lifecycle of game products due to market conditions and competition [37] - **Regulatory Risks**: Stricter regulations could impact game launches and earnings [37] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating with a revised target price of CNY 51.80, supported by strong growth prospects from Supernatural Action Squad and upcoming product launches [5][32][33]