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开源晨会-20251030
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-10-30 14:49
其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源:聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 0.901 | | 有色金属 | 0.790 | | 公用事业 | 0.133 | | 交通运输 | 0.115 | | 银行 | 0.069 | | 数据来源:聚源 | | 证 券 证 券 研 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | -2.825 | | 电子 | -2.231 | | 国防军工 | -1.955 | | 传媒 | -1.877 | | 综合 | -1.784 | | 数据来源:聚源 | | 开源晨会 1031 吴梦迪(分析师) wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】"十五五"规划建议的 10 个关键细节——"十五五"规划学习体会 -20251030 【宏观经济】美联储 12 月降息可 ...
巨人网络(002558)2025年三季报点评:《超自然行动组》流水表现亮眼 游戏收入递延周期影响业绩释放
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 12:37
Core Insights - The company reported stable revenue and profit growth for the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 3.368 billion yuan, up 51.84% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.417 billion yuan, up 32.31% year-on-year [1] - The game "Supernatural Action Group" has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant user growth and revenue increase driven by new content and collaborations [2] - The company maintains a robust product pipeline and has a positive earnings forecast for 2025-2027, with an expected EPS of 1.16, 1.84, and 2.11 yuan for the respective years [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.368 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.84% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.706 billion yuan, up 115.63% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 81.19% year-on-year [1] - The company's contract liabilities reached 1.333 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 440 million yuan from Q2, primarily due to adjustments in the game revenue deferral period [1] Game Performance and Product Pipeline - "Supernatural Action Group" has rapidly gained popularity with over 1 million concurrent players in July 2025, supported by new maps and collaborations with popular IPs [2] - The company has successfully launched new products in the casual gaming sector, with "Original Journey" achieving over 20 million new users in the first half of the year [2] - The company has a strong product reserve, including the card strategy game "Famous Generals Kill," which has received a license, and the SLG product "Five Thousand Years," which is in the testing phase [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance in the "Journey" IP sector, with the "Supernatural Action Group" exceeding revenue expectations and a solid product pipeline [3] - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 31, 19, and 17 times, respectively, indicating a favorable investment outlook [3]
巨人网络(002558):《超自然行动组》流水表现亮眼,游戏收入递延周期影响业绩释放
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-10-30 10:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.16, 1.84, and 2.11 CNY respectively, and corresponding PE ratios of 31, 19, and 17x [3] Core Insights - The company reported a stable growth in revenue and profit, with a significant year-on-year increase in revenue of 51.84% to 3.368 billion CNY and a net profit increase of 32.31% to 1.417 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The game "Supernatural Action Team" has shown strong performance, with a peak of over 1 million concurrent users and significant revenue growth driven by new content and collaborations with popular IPs [2] - The company has adjusted its game revenue deferral cycle, leading to an increase in contract liabilities to 1.333 billion CNY by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a strategic shift in revenue recognition [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.706 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 115.63%, and a net profit of 640 million CNY, up 81.19% [1] - The expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D for the first three quarters of 2025 were 36.23%, 4.78%, and 21.27% respectively, with sales expenses increasing due to higher advertising and channel costs [1] - The company’s financial forecasts indicate a revenue of 5.211 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 78.30% [5]
沪指失守4000点,创业板指跌近2%,能源金属板块逆市大涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 08:55
个股方面,上涨股票数量超过1200只,逾60只股票涨停。锂矿概念快速走强,天齐锂业触及涨停。量子科技概念股表现活 跃,神州信息2连板,格尔软件6天4板。电池板块震荡走强,石大胜华、天际股份双双涨停。储能板块局部活跃,通润装备 2连板。下跌方面,算力硬件股集体走弱,天孚通信、新易盛等多股大跌。游戏板块重挫,巨人网络一度逼近跌停。煤炭板 块多数下跌,安泰集团跌停。 行业资金方面,截至收盘,能源金属、钢铁行业、保险等净流入排名靠前,其中能源金属净流入28.29亿。 A股三大指数今日集体回调,沪指失守4000点大关。 净流出方面,通信设备、半导体、电子元件等净流出排名靠前,其中通信设备净流出122.3亿元。 截至收盘,沪指跌0.73%,收报3986.90点;深证成指跌1.16%,收报13532.13点;创业板指跌1.84%,收报3263.02点。沪深 两市成交额达到24217亿,较昨日放量1656亿。 行业板块多数收跌,能源金属板块大涨,钢铁行业、电池板块涨幅居前,游戏、电源设备、电子化学品、煤炭行业、证 券、农药兽药、电子元件板块跌幅居前。 编辑 佘诗婕 —— / 好文推荐 / —— 美国政府停摆背后:员工被迫休假 ...
巨人网络(002558):公司信息更新报告:《超自然行动组》致Q3业绩高增,后续增长动能强劲
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-10-30 07:45
传媒/游戏Ⅱ 巨人网络(002558.SZ) 2025 年 10 月 30 日 投资评级:买入(维持) | 日期 | 2025/10/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 37.92 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 47.66/11.11 | | 总市值(亿元) | 733.66 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 733.66 | | 总股本(亿股) | 19.35 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 19.35 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 151.61 | 股价走势图 数据来源:聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 巨人网络 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q2 业绩环比高增,新游或驱动业绩 逐 季 释 放 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.8.29 《IP 为盾,锐意创新,老牌游戏龙头 再启航 — 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 报 告 》 -2025.6.26 方光照(分析师) 《球球大作战》于 2015 年公测,次年 DAU 破千万,作为上线超 10 年产品,2025 年其单月流水创五年新高,并通过小游 ...
「游戏风云」爆款游戏拉动!巨人网络Q3净利增幅超80%,刘伟重任CEO聚焦年轻核心人才培养
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 07:37
本报(chinatimes.net.cn)记者于玉金 北京报道 自创始人史玉柱回归后,巨人网络发展重回快车道。 10月28日晚间,巨人网络发布了超过30条公告,其中一份为人事变动相关公告,公告显示,CEO兼总经 理张栋因个人原因辞职,公司董事刘伟出任新任CEO与总经理。从2024年1月接棒,到2025年10月仓促 离场,张栋作为刘伟"花数年挑选的接班人",不足两年便结束任期。刘伟曾于两年前卸任巨人网络 CEO,此次回归她将聚焦培养年轻核心人才。 与此同时,巨人网络还披露了今年三季报,其Q3实现营收17.06亿元,同比大增115.63%;归母净利润 6.40亿元,同比增长81.19%。值得关注的是,巨人网络自研休闲赛道新品《超自然行动组》成为现象级 爆款,该游戏在暑期表现优异,成为公司第三季度业绩增长的主要动力。 2023年,巨人网络推出新品《原始征途》,该游戏以"史玉柱亲自监制"为宣传点,由巨人征途原班人马 打造的MMO国战手游。游戏上线后市场表现突出,全年实现流水超过15亿元,有效拉动公司整体营 收,扭转了此前收入下滑的局面。 今年10月20日,史玉柱现身为征途IP二十周年寄语,他指出过去两年征途"人数的增 ...
创业板指低开低走跌近2% 沪指失守4000点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-30 07:20
每经AI快讯,10月30日,市场震荡调整,三大指数盘中均出现跳水,创业板指跌近2%,沪指失守4000 点。沪深两市成交额2.42万亿元,较上一个交易日放量1656亿元。盘面上,市场热点较为杂乱,全市场 4100只个股下跌。从板块来看,锂矿概念快速走强,天齐锂业(002466)触及涨停。量子科技概念股表 现活跃,神州信息(000555)2连板,格尔软件(603232)6天4板。电池板块震荡走强,石大胜华 (603026)、天际股份(002759)双双涨停。储能板块局部活跃,通润装备(002150)2连板。下跌方 面,算力硬件股集体走弱,天孚通信(300394)、新易盛(300502)等多股大跌。游戏板块重挫,巨人 网络(002558)一度逼近跌停。煤炭板块多数下跌,安泰集团(600408)跌停。板块方面,能源金属、 钢铁、量子科技、电池等板块涨幅居前,CPO、游戏、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘,沪指跌 0.73%,深成指跌1.16%,创业板指跌1.84%。 ...
刘伟重掌巨人网络帅印 能否打破全球化困局?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-30 06:55
10月28日,巨人网络(SZ002558,股价37.92元,市值733.66亿元)发布财报。该财报显示,巨人 网络前三季度营收为33.68亿元,同比增长51.84%,净利润为14.17亿元,同比增长32.31%,三季度营收 与净利润同比增幅分别高达115.63%和81.19%。 同日,巨人网络发布公告称,公司总经理张栋因个人原因申请辞职,原定任期至公司第六届董事会 任期届满之日止,辞职后不再担任公司任何职务,曾任职公司总经理的刘伟再度接任该职务。 此次管理层更迭,在征途IP(具有商业价值的创意内容或品牌)和AI(人工智能)已经双线爆发的 前提下,刘伟能否带领巨人网络持续推动核心IP年轻化转型,尤其如何打破全球化困局,值得行业与资 本市场持续关注。 形成年轻人才培养体系 2024年1月,兼具腾讯、网易暴雪从业经历的张栋接过刘伟的CEO(首席执行官)职位,这位曾主 持《炉石传说》《魔兽世界》等国服运营的高管,被史玉柱称为"刘伟花数年挑选的接班人",既熟 悉"巨人文化"又有外部历练。 任职期间,张栋深度参与AI战略落地与新品研发,推动《超自然行动组》等现象级产品诞生,这 款出自"95后"团队的新作在2025年7月同 ...
巨人网络(002558):《超自然行动组》再次验证研运能力,业绩释放潜力强劲
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-30 06:20
2025 年 10 月 30 日 巨人网络(002558.SZ) 收入递延存在错配,后续业绩释放潜力强劲。因收入递延因素, 《超自然行动组》增长的流水仅部分确认为收入,而剩余则体现 为合同负债,2025Q3 公司合同负债科目余额为 13.33 亿元,环比 增加 4.44 亿元,体现出为《超自然行动组》较强的商业化能力, 也为后续收入确认提供了保证。同时考虑收入确认有递延,但费 用当期确认,存在错配,我们认为公司后续业绩释放能力强劲。 再次验证长青游戏研运能力,夯实业绩基本盘。公司坚持自主 研发与精品战略,先后推出《征途》、《球球大作战》两大 IP 产品, 成为公司稳定的业绩基本盘。在公司擅长的国战 MMORPG 和多人 休闲竞技之外,《超自然行动组》开辟了"中式微恐+多人合作"的新 赛道,再次验证公司具备持续开拓新品类的研运能力。基于过往 在大 DAU 产品领域多年的研发经验积累与沉淀,我们认为公司有 能力推动《超自然行动组》成为第三款长青产品,进一步构筑业 绩基本盘。 投资建议:基于《超自然行动组》突出的产品表现,我们上修公 司业绩,预计 2025-2027 年实现收入为 51.4/73.6/80.85 亿 ...
AI+系列报告十:从Sora看AI视频的昨天、今天和明天
CMS· 2025-10-30 06:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [3] Core Insights - The release of Sora2 by OpenAI marks a second revolution in the AI video industry, showcasing significant technological breakthroughs and the integration of social interaction features [2][18] - The report highlights the rapid growth of "AI comic dramas" and other innovative content forms, which are expected to capture a larger share of internet usage among younger demographics [2][16] - The report identifies three key trends for the future of AI video applications: deep integration with social interactions, evolution towards an ecosystem represented by ChatGPT, and the combination with AI agents for comprehensive video creation solutions [7][17] Industry Overview - The industry consists of 160 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,947 billion and a circulating market value of 1,783.1 billion [3] - The absolute performance of the industry over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -5.4%, 20.3%, and 27.7% respectively, while the relative performance is -8.5%, -3.8%, and 9.3% [5] Technological Breakthroughs - Sora2 has achieved three major technological advancements: realistic simulation of the physical world, multi-modal integration for simultaneous audio generation, and initial capabilities for narrative logic and editing akin to a director [18][51] - The report emphasizes the shift from professional tools to consumer-level applications, with AI video tools becoming more accessible and integrated into social platforms [43][44] Market Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in various sectors: - Film industry: AI video tools are revolutionizing traditional content production, creating new dynamics [7][8] - Gaming: AI video technology is enhancing game development and gameplay innovation, increasing commercial potential [7][8] - Intellectual Property (IP): AI video is accelerating the visualization of IP, reshaping industry value [7][8] Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Meitu, Kunlun Wanwei, and Mango TV, among others, which are leveraging AI technologies to enhance their core business operations [8]