2025 年 07 月 31 日 "申万宏源十大金股组合" —— 2025 年第 8 期：8 月 1 日-8 月 31 日 组合说明： ⚫ "金股组合"一方面体现申万宏源未来 1 个月的大势研判观点及风格判断结论，另一方面 体现我们申万宏源整体研究团队的研究能力与市场竞争力，在严格的申报筛选流程下，我 们从全行业的角度为投资者精选个股，力求为投资者提供踏实的研究支持。本次报告对上 期金股组合进行更新。 上期组合回顾： 本期策略判断： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本期金股组合：(具体推荐逻辑详见正文第 3 部分十大金股组合) 证券分析师 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 王雪蓉 ...

根据已经发布的《中国游戏产业月报》测算，1月至5月中国游戏市场规模为1411.1亿元，同比增长达到 亮眼的17%。据点点数据统计，2025年1月至6月上线新游国内iOS端流水TOP20的榜单排名中，大部分 上榜新游的月流水都处于持续下滑中，只是速率大小和是否找到稳态的问题，巨人网络旗下的《超自然 行动组》是仅有的低开高走的逆袭之作，月流水从首月的54万元一路增长至6月的1700万元。受此影 响，截至7月31日记者发稿，巨人网络今年以来股价上涨超90%。 本报讯 （记者冯雨瑶）近日，由NIGHT STUDIOS工作室开发、巨人网络集团股份有限公司（以下简 称"巨人网络"）运营的手游《超自然行动组》受到游戏玩家追捧。在国产游戏日益同质化的当下，这款 游戏大热背后折射的是国内"游戏+社交"领域的变化以及玩家口味的迁移。 《超自然行动组》正式上线时间为2025年1月23日，核心玩法是当下流行的"搜打撤"，并且是"PVE合作 生存"模式，即四名玩家组队进入神秘古迹探险寻找高价值道具（如圣杯、雪莲、龙珠），同时需要对 抗AI控制的"鬼怪"并成功撤离。 但与市面上其他热门的"搜打撤"游戏不同，《超自然行动组》将故事核心放在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in China is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on international expansion and ecosystem development, driven by technological innovation and cultural integration [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The online gaming concept index has increased by 9.60% since June 23, with four consecutive days of gains [1]. - In the first seven months of 2025, a total of 884 domestic games received approval, an increase of 151 games compared to the same period last year [2]. - The Chinese gaming market size reached 28.051 billion yuan in May 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.86% and a month-on-month growth of 2.56% [4]. Group 2: International Expansion - In June 2025, 33 Chinese game companies ranked in the global top 100 mobile game publishers, collectively earning $1.76 billion, which accounts for 33% of the total revenue of the top 100 [3]. - ST华通's subsidiary, 点点互动, saw a 10% month-on-month revenue increase in June, maintaining its position as the second-highest Chinese mobile game publisher globally [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Four key investment themes are identified: high industry prosperity, focus on premium products by leading companies, a surge in new product releases, and innovative gameplay in niche markets [5]. - The gaming community is expected to benefit from the industry's high prosperity, with increased user activity and downloads anticipated [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gaming industry is accelerating its international expansion, transitioning from product output to ecosystem construction, with a focus on technological innovation, cultural integration, and industry chain collaboration [1][2]. Game License Approval Normalization - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 127 domestic online games in July 2025, with a total of 884 games approved from January to July 2025, an increase of 151 games compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - Analysts believe that the high volume of game license approvals will continue, indicating a normalization in the approval process and ongoing industry recovery [1]. Accelerated International Expansion - The trend of Chinese games going global has become a key development line, with 33 Chinese game companies entering the global mobile game publisher revenue TOP100 list in June 2025, collectively earning $1.76 billion, accounting for 33% of the total revenue of the top 100 [2]. - ST华通's subsidiary, 点点互动, saw a 10% month-on-month revenue increase in June, maintaining its position as the second-highest Chinese mobile game publisher globally [2]. Market Demand and Growth - The domestic gaming market remains robust, with high demand and supportive policies from various provinces and cities, leading to a new product cycle for A-share gaming companies [2][3]. - The Chinese gaming market size reached 28.05 billion yuan in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.86% and a month-on-month growth of 2.56% [3]. Investment Logic - Four main investment logic points are highlighted: high industry prosperity, focus on premium products by leading manufacturers, a surge in new product releases, and continuous innovation in niche segments like SLG and casual games [4].

Core Points - The stock price of Giant Network (002558) closed at 24.25 yuan on July 29, 2025, with an increase of 1.25% and a trading volume of 347,300 hands, amounting to 832 million yuan in transaction value [1] - The company's latest quarterly report shows total revenue of 724 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.29% to 348 million yuan [1] - The company has a current ratio and quick ratio of 1.448, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 12.97% [1] Financial Data - Main capital flow indicates a net outflow of 13.91 million yuan, accounting for 1.67% of the transaction value, with significant outflows from large orders [1] - The company has a non-recurring net profit of 362 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 10.45% [1] Company Overview - Giant Network Group Co., Ltd. was established in 1997 and is based in Chongqing, primarily engaged in internet and related services [2] - The company has invested in 19 enterprises and participated in 81 bidding projects, holding 5 trademark registrations and 1 administrative license [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - In July, the National Press and Publication Administration approved 127 domestic game titles, including key products from Huatuo and Giant Network. The summer gaming season has seen strong performance from multiple new games, indicating a sustained high level of activity in the gaming sector [2][4] - The new game cycle, favorable policy trends, and AI catalysis are expected to drive continued improvement in the gaming sector's fundamentals, suggesting that the valuation of the gaming sector still has upward elasticity. Investors are encouraged to continue monitoring investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In July, 127 domestic games received approval, including Huatuo's "Kingshot" and Giant Network's "Famous Generals Kill." Additionally, 7 imported game licenses were granted [9] - "Kingshot" has seen significant revenue growth, doubling in May and increasing by 56% in June, ranking third in China's mobile game overseas revenue growth [9] New Game Performance - Several new games from listed gaming companies have performed strongly during the summer season. For instance, Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" reached the top 4 in the free game rankings and top 20 in the revenue rankings on its launch day [9] - Other notable performances include Jiubite's "Staff Sword Legend," which entered the iOS revenue rankings top 13, and Tencent's "Dungeon and Fighter Mobile," which topped the iOS revenue rankings [9] Future Outlook - The pipeline for key gaming companies is robust, with several new titles set to launch, including "Tomb Raider: Journey" and "Douluo Continent: Evil Legend" [9] - The new game cycle is expected to enhance the sector's fundamentals, with ongoing policy stability and the integration of AI in gaming likely to boost valuations and performance [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of AI applications, particularly in programming, recommendation, and creative generation, with Chinese companies focusing on emotional consumption and overseas expansion to drive revenue [5]. - Tencent is identified as a strong player in AI applications, leveraging its large daily active users (DAU) and rich content ecosystem, with expectations for significant future growth in its advertising and cloud computing segments [5]. - The gaming sector is noted for its potential, with Tencent's game "Delta Action" exceeding expectations in DAU, and the value of game IP, especially female-oriented games, remains underappreciated by the market [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in enhancing advertising efficiency and revenue generation, particularly for companies with untapped traffic potential [5]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - AI applications are driving growth in various sectors, with significant contributions from programming and creative tools [5]. - Tencent's AI capabilities are expected to enhance its advertising revenue, with a projected growth rate of 20% in Q1 2025 [5]. Gaming Sector - Tencent's "Delta Action" has maintained a strong position in the iOS game sales rankings, indicating robust growth potential [5]. - The report notes that the gaming IP value, particularly for female-targeted games, is not fully recognized by the market, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5]. Key Company Valuations - Tencent's market capitalization is reported at 45,907 million RMB, with projected revenue growth of 11% for 2025 [7]. - Other companies like NetEase and Giant Network are also highlighted, with respective market caps of 6,139 million RMB and 463 million RMB, showing varied growth rates [7].

Core Points - The China Securities Media Index (CSI Media Index) reported a value of 2551.87 points, showing a low opening and a high closing on July 24 [1] - The CSI Media Index has increased by 5.60% over the past month, 9.27% over the past three months, and 10.86% year-to-date [2] Index Composition - The CSI Media Index is composed of various sectors categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Media Index include: - Focus Media (8.9%) - Giant Network (3.81%) - Kaiying Network (3.68%) - Yanshan Technology (3.66%) - Kunlun Wanwei (3.47%) - Light Media (3.26%) - 37 Interactive Entertainment (3.06%) - Leo Group (2.92%) - Shenzhou Taiyue (2.82%) - BlueFocus Communication Group (2.65%) [2] Market Distribution - The market distribution of the CSI Media Index shows that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 76.67%, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 23.33% [2] Sector Breakdown - The sector composition of the CSI Media Index is as follows: - Gaming: 27.64% - Digital Marketing: 17.77% - Film and Animation: 12.15% - Other Advertising Marketing: 11.07% - Publishing: 10.75% - Broadcasting and Television: 7.52% - Interactive Media: 3.86% - Graphic Media: 3.67% - Other Digital Media: 3.66% - Video Media: 1.91% [3] Index Adjustment - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to significant events affecting sample companies [3]

Group 1 - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of July 24, 2025 [1] - The highest-ranked company is Alibaba, with a market capitalization of 1,000 billion [3] - Other notable companies in the top 10 include Tencent with 600 billion and Baidu with 320 billion [3][4] Group 2 - The rankings show significant market values, with companies like JD.com at 489.1 billion and Kuaishou at 431.56 billion [3] - The list includes various sectors such as e-commerce, automotive, and software, indicating a diverse technology landscape [4][5] - Companies like Xpeng Motors and NIO are also featured, with market caps of 179.5 billion and 111.42 billion respectively [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Giant Network is experiencing a significant valuation reshaping driven by the success of its new game "Supernatural Action Group," which has led to a stock price increase of over 100% in three months and a market capitalization exceeding 50 billion yuan, marking a six-year high [1][4]. Group 1: Game Performance and Market Impact - "Supernatural Action Group," a multiplayer adventure game featuring "Chinese-style treasure hunting," has rapidly gained popularity since its launch in May, ranking in the top 2 of the iOS free chart and top 10 of the revenue chart [4][9]. - The game's success is viewed as a turning point for Giant Network, indicating a fundamental reversal in the company's performance [4][10]. - The game achieved a revenue of 54,000 yuan in its first month, which surged to over 70 million yuan in June after updates and new features were introduced [9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Development Strategy - Giant Network has a history of creating successful games, with notable titles like "Journey" and "Ball Battle," which have collectively generated over 30 billion yuan in revenue [6]. - The company has consistently focused on self-developed quality games, which has been a key factor in its ability to produce hits [11][12]. - The return of founder Shi Yuzhu to the front line has reinforced the company's commitment to its core strategy of developing quality games, leading to significant improvements in product development and user experience [14][17]. Group 3: Organizational Changes and Innovation - Giant Network has implemented a strategy to empower younger talent within the organization, fostering innovation and ensuring a continuous flow of creative ideas [12][13]. - The development team behind "Supernatural Action Group" is primarily composed of younger members, demonstrating the effectiveness of the company's talent strategy [12][14]. - The company has invested over 10 billion yuan in research and development over the past 20 years, leading to a reassessment of its valuation due to previous structural imbalances in R&D output [13][17]. Group 4: Future Growth and AI Strategy - Giant Network's growth strategy includes a diverse portfolio of long-standing IPs and new game reserves, with "Supernatural Action Group" expected to drive significant revenue growth in Q3 2025 [20][21]. - The company has established an AI laboratory to innovate game production and enhance gameplay experiences, positioning itself for competitive advantage in the evolving gaming landscape [21][23]. - Recent upgrades in ratings from multiple securities firms reflect a positive outlook on the company's growth potential and valuation, driven by the success of "Supernatural Action Group" and future product offerings [23][24].