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Will MO's Investment in Smoke-Free Products Drive Long-Term Growth?
ZACKS· 2025-03-10 11:46
Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. is navigating a challenging market by balancing its traditional tobacco business with a strategic shift towards smoke-free alternatives, despite facing pressures in its core Smokeable Products segment due to declining volumes [1][10]. Transition to Smoke-Free Products - A significant part of Altria's growth strategy involves transitioning to reduced-risk products like e-vapor and heated tobacco alternatives, responding to consumer demand for healthier options [3]. - NJOY, a key component of Altria's transformation, expanded its distribution to over 100,000 stores in 2024, achieving a 15% growth in consumable shipments during the fourth quarter, with a retail share of 6.4%, up 2.8 points year-over-year [4]. Operational Initiatives - Altria has launched the "Optimize & Accelerate" initiative to modernize operations, aiming for cumulative cost savings of at least $600 million over five years through enhanced efficiency and the use of generative AI and automation [6]. Market Challenges - The cigarette industry is experiencing significant challenges, with shipment volumes declining due to macroeconomic pressures and the rise of illegal disposable e-vapor products, which have led to a shift from cigarettes to these alternatives [7][8]. - Altria's revenues from the Smokeable Products segment have been declining for several quarters, influenced by inflation and reduced discretionary spending among adult smokers [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - The growth of illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products poses a substantial threat to Altria's efforts in the smoke-free category, overshadowing NJOY's market share growth [9][10]. - Altria's stock has gained 5.7% over the past three months, compared to the industry's growth of 13.3% [11].