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Nutrien Stock Rallies 40% YTD: What's Behind the Upside?
ZACKS· 2025-12-15 17:16
Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd.'s shares have increased by 40.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's 14.8% gain and the S&P 500's 18.3% rise [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nutrien's stock performance has been driven by strong fertilizer demand, particularly for potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, supported by expectations of robust crop production and limited new supply [5][8]. - The company has raised its 2025 potash sales outlook to approximately 14-14.5 million tons due to healthy demand from key markets such as North America, Brazil, and Southeast Asia [6][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Nutrien reported significant EBITDA growth in Q3 2025, driven by higher sales volumes and stronger pricing across all segments, reflecting improved operational leverage and cost-control initiatives [9]. - The company achieved margin expansion and a notable increase in free cash flow, allowing for over $1 billion in capital returns to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in the first nine months of the year [10]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Nutrien is focused on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing production costs, with a target of achieving about $200 million in total cost reductions in 2025, currently ahead of schedule [11].