ab 27 March 2026 Global Research Chemicals Sector The regional playbook for the chemical industry Prices up, capacity adjustment, final volumes down? Earlier this week, we hosted a call for investors during which we discussed how the conflict in the Middle East is impacting the chemical industry in each region. Cyclical chemical companies are currently increasing prices to compensate for higher costs, and those in Europe and the US may benefit from capacity closures in Asia given the lack of feedstock suppl ...

Core Insights - Ariel Focus Fund experienced a decline of -0.50% in Q4 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Value indices, which gained +2.66% and +3.81% respectively, but achieved a +20.97% return over the full year [1] Fund Performance - The fund's performance in Q4 2025 was characterized by a resilient U.S. market with easing inflation, stable corporate earnings, and optimism around accommodative monetary policy [1] - The fund maintained a disciplined, long-term, bottom-up investment approach, selectively adding to positions without making exits during the quarter [1] Market Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic, noting elevated market concentration, valuation risks in large-cap leaders, and macro uncertainties [1] - Increasing dispersion and evolving market leadership are expected to create opportunities for active investors focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and durable earnings [1] Company Focus: The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) - The Mosaic Company, a leading producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers, had a one-month return of -6.65% and traded between $22.36 and $38.23 over the last 52 weeks, closing at approximately $25.00 per share with a market capitalization of about $7.94 billion [2] - The Mosaic Company detracted from performance due to mixed earnings results and management commentary that did not meet investor expectations, with higher potash and phosphate prices offset by lower volumes and rising production costs [3] - Despite pressures, phosphate markets are expected to remain tight in the near term due to limited new supply, and the company is focused on cost discipline, free cash flow generation, and maintaining its investment-grade credit profile while returning significant capital to shareholders [3]

Core Viewpoint - Itafos Inc. has announced the granting of restricted share units (RSUs) and deferred share units (DSUs) to its directors and officers as part of its annual compensation process, aimed at rewarding contributions and incentivizing future success [1][3]. Summary by Sections RSUs and DSUs Granting - The company granted a total of 477,535 RSUs and 32,738 DSUs to its directors and officers [1]. - RSUs for directors will vest one-third per annum over three years [1]. - RSUs for officers will vest 50% on an anniversary basis over three years and 50% on the third anniversary, contingent on achieving specific key performance indicators [2]. Vesting and Payment Structure - Each vested RSU allows the holder to receive one share of common stock or a cash equivalent at the time of vesting [3]. - Vested DSUs entitle the holder to a cash payment equal to the fair market value of one share upon ceasing to serve with the company [4]. Company Overview - Itafos is a phosphate and specialty fertilizer company with operations in the United States, Brazil, and Guinea Bissau [5]. - The company trades on the TSX-V under the ticker "IFOS" and on the OTCQX under "ITFS" [5]. - The principal shareholder is CLF, affiliated with Castlelake, L.P., a global private investment firm [5].

Core Points - Itafos Inc. has granted a total of 477,535 restricted share units (RSUs) and 32,738 deferred share units (DSUs) to its directors and officers, with RSUs vesting one-third per annum over three years [1][2] - The RSUs for officers are structured with 50% vesting annually over three years and the remaining 50% vesting on the third anniversary, contingent on achieving specific key performance indicators [2] - Each vested RSU allows the holder to receive one share of common stock or a cash equivalent, while vested DSUs provide a cash payment equal to the fair market value of one share upon cessation of service [3][4] Company Overview - Itafos is a phosphate and specialty fertilizer company operating across three continents, with its shares traded on TSX-V under the ticker "IFOS" and on OTCQX under "ITFS" [5] - The principal shareholder of Itafos is CLF, an affiliate of Castlelake, L.P., a global private investment firm [5] - The company has various operations, including a vertically integrated phosphate fertilizer business in Idaho, production targets in Brazil, and high-grade phosphate mine projects in Guinea-Bissau and Brazil [7]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the price target for CF Industries to $140, highlighting a significant upside potential due to a 77% increase in urea prices and supply disruptions in the Middle East that the market has not fully recognized [2][3][7]. Company Performance - CF Industries' stock has increased by 66.52% year-to-date, trading at $128.11 with a P/E ratio of 14.28, which is below the chemicals sector average [2][6]. - The company returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025 and has an additional $1.7 billion remaining on its buyback program through 2029 [2][12]. Market Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have created a nitrogen supply shock, benefiting CF Industries as North America's largest nitrogen producer [3][12]. - Urea prices have surged by 77%, and continued geopolitical tensions could sustain elevated nitrogen prices, leading to further margin expansion for CF Industries [3][7]. Future Outlook - UBS's price target of $140 suggests that nitrogen prices need to remain high through mid-to-late 2026, and the Yazoo City Complex outage must resolve on schedule by Q4 2026 for CF to achieve this target [9]. - The company is also positioned for long-term growth through its Blue Point low-carbon ammonia joint venture, targeting production in 2029, which aligns with the emerging clean hydrogen economy [12]. Key Drivers - Strong global nitrogen demand is expected, with U.S. corn plantings remaining high and India's urea stocks down 35% year-over-year, supporting a pricing floor for nitrogen [12]. - CF Industries has a structural cost advantage over European and Asian producers, enhancing its competitive position in the market [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - Mosaic Company is facing significant challenges in its phosphate business due to rising input costs and supply disruptions, leading to a downgrade by UBS and other Wall Street firms, with a new price target set at $27 from $33 [2][5][8]. Financial Performance - The phosphate cash cost of conversion increased to $131 per tonne in Q3 2025, up from $101 in the previous year [2][8]. - Sulfur prices surged to approximately $500 per metric ton late in Q3 2025, contributing to an expected EBITDA headwind of around $250 million in Q1 2026 [2][8]. Market Reactions - UBS downgraded Mosaic's rating from Buy to Neutral, reflecting a structural squeeze on phosphate profitability and delayed margin expansion now anticipated in 2027 instead of 2026 [5][7]. - Other firms, including Bank of America, also downgraded Mosaic, with Bank of America lowering its price target to $30 from $33 [8]. Analyst Insights - Analysts note that elevated sulfur and ammonia input costs, worsened by Middle East supply disruptions, are compressing stripping margins and limiting Mosaic's ability to benefit from high prices [3][7]. - The overall analyst consensus indicates a mean price target of $31.69, with a mix of Hold and Buy ratings, suggesting a more cautious outlook from the market [10]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Mosaic reported negative free cash flow of -$135 million in Q3 2025, driven by increased working capital and high capital expenditures, with management guiding for approximately $1.5 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 [9].

All figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. BELO HORIZONTE, Brazil and SINGAPORE, March 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verde AgriTech Ltd (TSX: NPK | OTCQX: VNPKF) ("Verde” or the “Company”), today reported its operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (“Q4 2025” and “FY 2025”). “The Great Brazilian Agriculture Crisis continued to weigh on sales throughout 2025, and the sharp rise in judicial recovery filings across Brazil’s agribusiness se ...

Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) ranks among the most profitable Canadian Stocks to buy now. On March 13, Jefferies upgraded Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) to Buy from Hold, raising its price target to $96 from $74. The revised price objective is 7.5x 2027 estimated EBITDA, compared to a five-year average of 6.6x. Jefferies expects $7.0 billion in EBITDA in 2026 and $7.3 billion the following year. In addition, on February 20, BMO Capital boosted Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR)’s price target to $85 from $75, retaining an Outpe ...

Fertilizer prices are going up as a result of tensions in the Middle East, with a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz restricting the supply of natural gas. Natural gas is vital in the production of ammonia, urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), among other things. In fact, natural gas accounts for as much as 90% of the cost of ammonia. Similar supply shocks are possible in the manufacturing of sulphur-based fertilizers, as sulphur is a byproduct of oil refining and natural gas processing. These sup ...

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) is recognized as one of the 10 Most Profitable S&P 500 Stocks to Buy Now [1] - BofA raised its price target for CF Industries to $103 from $86 while maintaining an Underperform rating, citing stronger profit expectations for FY26 but cautioning about the fertilizer cycle [1][2] - BMO Capital increased its price target for CF Industries to $140 from $115 and maintained an Outperform rating, indicating that elevated prices for key fertilizers may persist in the near term [2] - Mizuho downgraded CF Industries to Underperform from Neutral, raising the price target to $100 from $95, suggesting that the impact of higher oil and fertilizer prices may already be reflected in the stock [3] Price Target Changes - BofA's new price target is $103, up from $86, with an Underperform rating [1][3] - BMO Capital's new price target is $140, up from $115, with an Outperform rating [2] - Mizuho's new price target is $100, up from $95, with an Underperform rating [3] Market Conditions - BMO noted that current spot prices for nitrogen, phosphate, sulfur, and methanol remain below prior peaks, but the market could face additional supply shocks [2] - Mizuho indicated that the strength in nitrogen prices may not be sustainable and could decline once market conditions normalize [3] Company Overview - CF Industries specializes in the production and distribution of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia, across global agricultural markets [4]