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Radian(RDN) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-05 17:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Radian reported net income from continuing operations of $153 million, or $1.11 per diluted share, consistent with the previous quarter [12] - The company achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 12.4%, with a higher ROE of 13.4% for continuing operations [12] - Book value per share grew by 9% year over year to $34.34 [12] - Total revenues for the quarter were $303 million, with net premiums earned reaching $237 million, the highest level in over three years [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mortgage insurance in-force portfolio grew to an all-time high of $281 billion, with new insurance written increasing by 15% year over year to $15.5 billion [13][14] - The persistency rate for the mortgage insurance portfolio remained strong at 84% [13] - The in-force premium yield remained stable at 38 basis points [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of new defaults in the third quarter was approximately 13,400, a decline of 2% from the same period last year [15] - Total defaults increased to approximately 24,000 loans, resulting in a portfolio default rate of 2.42% [15] - The company maintained a default-to-claim rate of 7.5%, resulting in a loss provision of $53 million for new defaults [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Radian is transitioning from a leading U.S. mortgage insurer to a global multi-line specialty insurer, with the acquisition of Indigo as a key strategic move [6][9] - The divestiture plan for non-core businesses is underway, with expectations to complete the process by the third quarter of next year [5][11] - The acquisition of Indigo, valued at $1.7 billion, is expected to double earned premiums and expand the total addressable market by 12 times [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the mortgage insurance business, highlighting strong credit performance and the resilience of the portfolio [4][23] - The company anticipates maintaining strong persistency rates due to a significant portion of the insurance portfolio having mortgage rates of 5% or lower [14] - Management remains vigilant regarding credit trends in other asset classes but sees positive performance in the mortgage segment [16] Other Important Information - Radian has returned nearly $3 billion of capital to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases since 2017 [5] - The company expects to maintain strong liquidity, with available holding company liquidity growing to $995 million by quarter-end [19] - The company has revised its expense run rate guidance for continuing operations to approximately $250 million for the full year 2025 [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Should the 200 basis points increase be added to the current run rate ROE? - Management indicated that a 200 basis points increase on the current operating ROE of 13.9% is reasonable [25][26] Question: What are the potential capital benefits from using unearned premiums at Radian as capital at Indigo? - Management noted that future details on potential synergies and reinsurance opportunities between the MI business and Indigo will be shared post-transaction [27][28] Question: How should capital freed up from divesting non-core businesses be viewed? - Management stated that the carrying value of the three businesses is approximately $170 million, with no significant gains or losses expected [33][34] Question: What are the key steps to return to the buyback program? - Management outlined that excess liquidity is expected within a few quarters post-Indigo acquisition, which will allow for a revisit of the share repurchase strategy [35][38] Question: What is the timing of the divestitures? - Management confirmed that the divestiture process is on track to be completed by the third quarter of next year, with significant interest from potential buyers [42][43] Question: What would it take to move the claim rate below 7.5%? - Management explained that the current claim rate is a through-the-cycle assumption, and they do not expect changes in the near future [45][46] Question: Has anything changed post-COVID affecting cure rates? - Management noted that home equity growth and improved borrower assistance processes have positively influenced cure rates since COVID [49][50]