March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed down -0.01 (-0.07%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +0.10 (+0.02%). Sugar prices extended their week-long plunge on Monday, with NY sugar falling to a 2.5-month low and London sugar dropping to a 5-year low.   However, oversold conditions in sugar futures prompted some technical short covering, lifting sugar prices off their lows on Monday, with London sugar climbing into positive territory. More News from Barchart The outlook for ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed down -0.43 (-2.93%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -7.10 (-1.72%). This week's plunge in sugar prices continued on Friday, with NY sugar dropping to a 2.5-month low and London sugar sinking to a 5-year low.   The outlook for global sugar surpluses and higher global sugar production is hammering prices.  Green Pool Commodity Specialists said Thursday that they expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surp ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a projected global sugar surplus, although future supply constraints from Brazil may provide some support for prices [1][3]. Group 1: Global Sugar Supply and Demand - Covrig Analytics has increased its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) from 4.1 MMT, indicating a larger surplus than previously expected [1]. - The forecast for the 2026/27 global sugar surplus is expected to decrease to 1.4 MMT, as lower prices may discourage production [1]. - Brazil's sugar production is projected to decline by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, down from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, which could support sugar prices [3]. Group 2: Regional Production Trends - Indian sugar production for the 2025-26 season has surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, prompting concerns about price pressures [4]. - The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4]. - India is considering allowing additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota of 1.5 MMT set for the 2025/26 season [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Expectations of index-related buying of sugar futures are anticipated to provide support, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion into sugar futures contracts for index rebalancing this week [2]. - The potential for increased sugar exports from India is seen as a negative factor for prices, as the government may permit additional exports to manage domestic supply [5].

Core Insights - Global sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to an anticipated larger sugar surplus, with Covrig Analytics increasing its 2025/26 surplus estimate to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) from 4.1 MMT [1] - However, future projections indicate a decrease in surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 as low prices may deter production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Expectations of index-related buying are providing support for sugar prices, with Citigroup forecasting $1.2 billion inflows into sugar futures contracts for index rebalancing this week [2] - Brazil's sugar production is projected to decline by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, which is bullish for prices, alongside an expected 11% year-on-year drop in exports to 30 MMT [3] Group 2: Regional Production Trends - Indian sugar production has surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT for the period from October 1 to December 31, 2025, prompting the Indian Sugar Mill Association to raise its overall production estimate for 2025/26 to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - The Indian government is considering allowing additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota of 1.5 MMT set for the 2025/26 season [5]