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高盛:用 80 张图表看世界-全球运输市场解读
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-23 02:10
Investment Rating - The report indicates a generally positive outlook for the global transport markets, particularly in ocean freight, while air freight shows signs of weakness [1][2]. Core Insights - Global ocean volumes in Q2 are up 6% year-over-year (yoy) in China, with Asia-Europe trade also experiencing mid-single-digit growth, despite some declines in Pacific volumes [1][2]. - Air freight has weakened recently, with initial growth in April fading due to regulatory changes and underperformance in North America [1][3]. - The China-US cargo rush is slowing, with forecasts indicating significant declines in US imports and weaker export orders from China [2][4]. Summary by Sections Freight: Ocean Resilient, Air Softer - Ocean freight volumes are showing resilience with a 6% increase in China port throughput yoy, while air freight has softened following regulatory changes [1][2]. Air Freight: Softer Following De Minimis Changes - Air freight growth was initially positive in April but has since declined, particularly in North America, with ISM new orders in contraction for four consecutive months [1][2][3]. Sea: Positive Global Volume Growth in Q2 - Global container volumes increased by 6% in April, indicating a positive trend in seaborne trade despite some regional variations [1][2][35]. Shipping: Rates Up from April Lows, but Starting to Fade on the Pacific - Shipping rates have recovered from April lows but are beginning to show signs of fading momentum, particularly in the Pacific region [1][2][95]. Airlines: Weaker Unit Revenue Trends into Summer - Airline fare data has weakened, particularly in Europe and the US, with expectations of slowing passenger growth across major hubs [3][4]. Airports: Generally Slowing Traffic Growth - Airport traffic growth is generally slowing, reflecting broader trends in air travel demand [3][4]. Commodities Shipping - Crude tanker rates have increased due to geopolitical tensions, while demand for shipments remains high [9]. Asia-Europe Trade - There is robust growth in Asia-Europe container trade, supported by favorable exchange rates for imports from China [9][67][69].