Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the eCommerce industry, highlighting several "Buy" rated stocks as secular winners, including Amazon.com (AMZN), JD.com (JD), Coupang (CPNG), Sea Ltd. (SE), MercadoLibre (MELI), Zalando (ZAL), and Eternal (ETEA) [7]. Core Insights - Global eCommerce sales are projected to grow at a +6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately $6.4 trillion by 2030, driven by modest increases in online penetration rates and significant growth in regions with lower current penetration [5][16]. - The report identifies the Food and Beverage category as a key driver of eCommerce growth, with expectations of a +10% CAGR in this segment from 2025 to 2030 [33]. - The eCommerce market is expected to continue consolidating, with the largest platforms gaining market share, particularly in the global ex-China market where the top five platforms accounted for 50% of total online sales in 2024 [38]. Summary by Sections Global eCommerce Opportunity - The report estimates global eCommerce sales at $4.3 trillion in 2024, growing to $4.7 trillion in 2025, with a long-term growth forecast of +6% CAGR through 2030 [16]. - Global eCommerce penetration is expected to rise from 23% in 2025 to 26% by 2030, indicating a gradual shift towards online shopping [16]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in global real GDP growth in 2025, particularly in the US and Asia, which may impact eCommerce sales [10]. - Tariffs and the evolving global trade environment are highlighted as significant risk factors for the industry [10]. Valuation Insights - Current global eCommerce valuation multiples are below long-term averages, reflecting a slower growth profile, although growth-adjusted multiples remain at historical norms [10]. - The report includes a refreshed DCF-based intrinsic value framework for GMV-based platforms [10]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that regions with lower online penetration, such as India, Latin America, and ASEAN, present the highest growth potential for eCommerce [10][16]. - In the US, eCommerce sales are projected to grow to nearly $1.7 trillion by 2030, with an average annual increase in online penetration of 70 basis points [50]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the largest eCommerce platforms are capturing a majority of incremental sales, driven by competitive advantages such as low prices and fast delivery [100]. - Essential product categories are outperforming discretionary categories, with platforms focused on staples seeing stronger growth [100].