Group 1 - Global long-term bond yields have returned to their highest levels since 2009, indicating a growing consensus that the easing monetary policy cycle by central banks is nearing its end [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing unusual movements, with yields rising despite expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by concerns over persistent inflation and a significant budget deficit of $1.8 trillion [5] - The shift in market sentiment is reflected in the pricing of monetary policy, with traders betting that the European Central Bank has little room for further rate cuts and that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates soon [1][4] Group 2 - A "disappointment trade" is spreading across developed markets as investors realize that the rate-cutting cycle by major central banks may be coming to an end, leading to challenges for long-term interest rates in the U.S. [4] - The surge in government debt and fiscal expansion plans are significant factors pushing up yields, with countries like Germany and Japan planning substantial spending increases [7] - The current yield movements reflect market expectations for stronger economic growth, as global fiscal policies may adopt a more expansionary stance next year [7]