Market Outlook & Economic Concerns - The market is potentially in a range, facing slower growth and higher inflation, but supported by steady retail demand and buybacks, with daily equity market demand around $7-8 billion [2] - A stagflationary tilt is present, advising caution on expecting a significantly higher market [2][6][15] - Expects a slowdown in the market, influenced by an effective tariff rate of 14%, equating to a $400 billion tax [3] - Recession risk remains, with a 1 in 3 chance [7] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs are creating stickier inflation, posing a risk of structural changes in business and consumer behavior [5][6] - The textbook economics view of tariffs as a one-time shift is not holding true, as the impact is stretched out over a longer period [4][5] Sector & Investment Strategies - Aerospace and defense sectors are expected to perform well, alongside consumer staples, utilities, and real estate [8] - International markets could outperform [8] - European defense sector is attractive, considering currency factors and front-loaded fiscal spending related to NATO [11][12] Bond Market & Fiscal Policy - Term premium is expected to remain elevated due to fiscal debt and Treasury funding needs [7][13] - A $5 trillion gap is projected to emerge beginning in 2026 when considering the rest of the decade [14] Gold as a Hedge - Gold is considered a good hedge against recession and stagflation risks [15] - Hypothetical scenarios suggest gold prices could reach $6,000 with increased gold holdings, with a more conservative target of $4,000 next year [16]