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Starbucks Q3 Preview: Report Could Show Consumers Ditching Lattes For Living Rooms โ€” Or Sipping Elsewhere
Benzingaยท 2025-07-28 18:19
Core Viewpoint - Starbucks Corporation is expected to report third-quarter financial results that may indicate either a turnaround or increased competition impacting market share [1] Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict third-quarter revenue of $9.29 billion, an increase from $9.11 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - The company has missed revenue estimates in seven of the past ten quarters [2] Earnings Per Share - Expected earnings per share for the third quarter is 65 cents, down from 93 cents in the previous year [3] - Starbucks has missed earnings per share estimates in five of the past ten quarters [3] Analyst Insights - The introduction of the Green Apron staffing model may increase labor costs by 12% at U.S. stores, potentially impacting earnings in 2026 and 2027 [4] - Despite the increased labor costs, analysts have raised same-store sales estimates for 2026 through 2028 [4] Visitor Trends - A report from Placer.ai indicates a consistent number of unique visitors, although overall visits have declined recently [5] - Monthly visits in January increased by 3.1% and in April by 0.9% year-over-year, while some months saw declines [6] Competitive Landscape - Starbucks is focusing on loyal visits and moving away from short-term discounts, which may take time to show results [7] - Competition includes drive-thru coffee chains, coffee houses, and consumers brewing coffee at home [7] Investor Expectations - Investors are keen to hear about Starbucks' loyal consumer base and any insights on competitive trends during the earnings report [8] Analyst Ratings - Bank of America maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $101 to $110 [9] - Barclays maintained an Overweight rating but lowered the price target from $108 to $106 [9] - Jefferies downgraded from Hold to Underperform with a price target of $76 [9] - Citigroup maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $95 to $100 [9] - Stifel maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $92 to $105 [9] Recent Performance - The second quarter saw comparable store sales down 1% in North America, down 2% internationally, and flat in China [10] - The company has been quiet on guidance since the new CEO took over, which may lead to volatility in shares post-earnings report [11]