18 November 2025 | 2:22PM EST Economics Research Global Market Views: Trading 2025, Thinking 2026 1. Peering through data fog into 2026. The US government shutdown has amplified risks around the upcoming data releases, particularly around the labour market. That is still the main risk to an otherwise benign global cyclical picture. If the outturns there are only modestly weak rather than tripping into recessionary fears, the outlook beyond that into 2026 looks more reassuring. Government re-opening, recedin ...

For market reaction, let's bring in Stephen Parker, co-head of global investment strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank. Stephen, great to have you with us. Uh, so we just got claims data, better than expected, but we had the jobs data from last week.How do you view uh where we are on jobs and how that impacts what the Fed is going to do later this year. Yeah, we think the weakness that we saw last week in the the labor report, you know, is not a surprise. Uh, we expected that the the delayed impact from tariff ...