Core Viewpoint - The current dip in Bitcoin's price presents an opportunity for long-term investors to focus on the asset's fundamentals rather than short-term fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Long-Term Investment Perspective - The long-term holding strategy is emphasized, with the understanding that price volatility is expected and should not deter investors [3]. - Historical performance shows that despite significant dips, Bitcoin has appreciated substantially over the years, with a 428% increase from its low in December 2022 [4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - A significant portion of Bitcoin is held by entities that are less likely to sell, including government entities, public companies, and asset managers, which stabilizes the market [7]. - The potential for central banks to accumulate Bitcoin as reserves could further reduce circulating supply and enhance its maturity as an asset [8]. Group 3: Macro Liquidity Factors - Bitcoin is viewed as a barometer for global liquidity, which is influenced by central bank policies and credit creation [9]. - An anticipated shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy in the U.S. could lead to increased liquidity, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin [10]. - Historical trends suggest that purchases made during periods of low liquidity will yield favorable outcomes when liquidity expands again [11].

Bitcoin Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle, often based on the 4-year halving cycle, is a core investment dynamic in Web3, but its relationship with price appreciation is diminishing due to other factors [1][3] - The market experienced a 35% correction, highlighting the ongoing debate between bulls and bears regarding the 4-year cycle's validity [2] - The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly altered the price dynamics, injecting nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity and establishing a new price floor more than 100% higher than the previous one [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic headwinds, including quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates, continue to influence the Bitcoin cycle [6] - Bitcoin's performance is inversely correlated with the strength of Gold, as it thrives during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest [7] - Liquidity cycles were significantly longer before 2008, averaging between 8-10 years, suggesting the current cycle might be in the middle of a larger bull cycle [9] Correlation and Future Outlook - The correlation between the strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Ethereum against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) may indicate an extended Bitcoin cycle, potentially mirroring the mid-stages of 2016 or 2019 [12][13][14][15] - Combining the business cycle with Bitcoin cycles suggests the market might be in the middle of a peak bear phase, comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019 [17][18] - Looking forward to 2026-2027, factors like Bank of America's allowance for Bitcoin ETF allocation, the Clarity Act, and potential quantitative easing (QE) suggest a less bearish outlook than the traditional 4-year cycle would indicate [19][20]

RT Jan van Eck (@JanvanEck3)TLDR:The bitcoin bear market is being driven by the onchain reality of the halving cycle (bearish for 2026), quantum-breaking-encryption concerns and the better privacy of Zcash.@vaneckpk said it best: dollar cost average into bear markets@vaneck_us ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin has historically led the market to new highs after each halving cycle [1] - Bitcoin's network has experienced significant growth in users and miners since 2009 [1] Report Focus - CoinGecko Bitcoin Report 2025 provides 6 key highlights [1]

🚨 HISTORY: Pantera Capital’s 2022 Bitcoin model predicted $117,482 for Aug. 11, 2025, just 1% off the actual $118,700.The forecast, based on halving cycle patterns, also correctly pinpointed the cycle peak this month. https://t.co/lKfFkCgV7Y ...