Market Overview - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $126,000, surprising many traders [1] - The rally was unexpected due to previous failures at new highs, where sell-offs occurred [6] - A short squeeze liquidated over $923 million in short positions, fueling the price surge [7] Key Drivers - Spot Bitcoin ETFs were the primary driver, with over $5 billion inflows in the first week of October [8] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed nearly $1 billion in a single day [8] - Macro catalysts included US government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [9] On-Chain Analysis - Bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges fell to 283% million BTC, the lowest since June 2019, creating a supply crunch [12] - Approximately 64% of Bitcoin has been held for over a year, indicating long-term holders are not selling [13] - MVRV z-score suggests Bitcoin is not yet in a state of mass euphoria, indicating room for growth [15] Institutional Price Targets - Wall Street consensus average sits around $156,000 for year-end 2025 [18] - Standard Chartered reaffirmed its $200,000 year-end 2025 price target, expecting $20 billion in ETF inflows [19][20] - JP Morgan estimates Bitcoin could climb to $165,000 based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold [20] Potential Risks - Macroeconomic risks, particularly a Federal Reserve policy reversal, could derail the rally [25] - High leverage in Bitcoin futures, with over $88 billion in open interest, makes the market vulnerable to liquidations [26] - Geopolitical risks could introduce extreme volatility [27]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of not making significant capital allocation decisions based solely on assumptions regarding future interest rate paths [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, assisting top-tier corporates in shaping financial strategies and executing large-scale financings [1]. - He has contributed to institutionalizing the REIT framework in Latvia to enhance the liquidity of pan-Baltic capital markets [1]. - His policy-level work includes developing national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks for channeling private capital into affordable housing [1]. - Berzins holds a CFA Charter and an ESG investing certificate, and has interned at the Chicago Board of Trade [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The article suggests that the current macroeconomic environment should be approached with caution, particularly regarding interest rate assumptions [1].