Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's trade flows, particularly in exports, driven by significant tariff reductions and recovering import growth [2][32]. Core Insights - Export-led growth has been a crucial driver of China's economy, contributing to over half of the 5% real GDP growth in 2024 [3][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of timely monitoring of trade flows using shipping data due to high uncertainty surrounding China's trade dynamics [4][32]. - Vessel traffic data is highlighted as an effective tool for tracking trade flows, with seaborne trade accounting for 67% of US imports from China [9][10]. Summary by Sections Seaborne Trade's Significance for China - Seaborne imports from China represent 67% of US imports and 60% of EU imports, indicating a strong reliance on maritime transport for trade [11][10]. - The share of seaborne exports to the US has increased from 62% in 2017 to 69% in Q1 2025, with higher-value goods often transported by air [10][11]. High-Frequency Shipping Data - The report discusses the development of high-frequency shipping data, which allows for daily and weekly tracking of trade flows, contrasting with the monthly release of official trade statistics [15][20]. - Elane's data is noted for its accuracy in tracking year-over-year growth for both exports and imports, outperforming other datasets [27][31]. Month-to-Date Tracking - As of mid-May, the month-to-date tracking indicates resilient export growth and recovering import growth, with expectations of further upside due to US-China trade talks [32][34]. - The report suggests that the significant tariff reductions and the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs could enhance China's export performance in the coming months [32][34].