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Finding Quality In A Volatile Market: Globe Life Inc. (GL)
Forbesยท 2025-06-27 15:15
Core Insights - The article discusses the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, highlighting that the attention on these companies is more about market hype than fundamental changes in their businesses [2] - It emphasizes the importance of thorough research and analysis to identify high-quality investment opportunities beyond surface-level metrics [3] Company Analysis - Globe Life Inc. (GL) has shown consistent growth, with revenue and net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) increasing by 4% and 7% compounded annually since 2014, respectively [6] - The NOPAT margin for Globe Life improved from 14% in 2014 to 19% in the trailing twelve months (TTM), while invested capital turns decreased from 1.0 to 0.9 [6] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) for Globe Life rose from 13% in 2014 to 16% in the TTM, driven by rising NOPAT margins [6] Valuation Insights - At a current price of $120 per share, Globe Life has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.6, indicating that the market expects a 40% permanent decline in NOPAT from TTM levels, which appears overly pessimistic given the company's historical growth [8] - Even under conservative projections, where NOPAT margin falls to 12% and revenue grows by only 3% annually through 2034, the stock could be valued at $156 per share, representing a 30% upside [9] - If Globe Life's profits grow in line with historical levels, the potential upside for the stock increases further [9] Financial Adjustments - The company's financial filings underwent significant adjustments, with over $100 million in changes to the income statement, resulting in a net removal of over $15 million in non-operating expenses [10] - Nearly $4 billion in adjustments were made to the balance sheet to calculate invested capital, with a net increase of under $1 billion [11] - Valuation adjustments totaled just under $200 million, all of which decreased shareholder value, notably due to outstanding employee stock options [11]