Core Insights - Morgan Stanley is set to announce its earnings on October 15, 2025, with an earnings forecast of $2.07, an increase from $1.88 in the same quarter last year, and expected revenue growth of approximately 6.5% to $16.4 billion, driven by stronger trading revenues and increased activity in mergers and acquisitions [2][3] Financial Performance - The company currently has a market capitalization of $249 billion, with revenue of $62 billion and a net income of $15 billion over the past twelve months [3] - Historical data shows that in the last five years, Morgan Stanley recorded 19 earnings data points, resulting in 12 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, yielding a positive return approximately 63% of the time [5] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders may benefit from understanding historical probabilities and positioning themselves ahead of the earnings release or analyzing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [3][4] - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, with traders potentially opting to go "long" for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [6] Performance Metrics - The median of the 12 positive returns from the last five years is 1.6%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -2.8% [5] - The Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, generating returns exceeding 105% since its launch, offering a more stable performance compared to individual stocks like Morgan Stanley [6]