Cheryl Palmer. Cheryl, it's always good to get your check on the market with your help. Thank you so much for joining us.>> Great to see you. Thank you for having me this morning. Of course.>> Can you walk us through at least the the closure guidance. >> Yeah, I mean we did um modify our closings modestly, right. We I think consensus Carl was right around 13,000 closings for 2025 and we brought it down to the midpoint.Um the midpoint of our new guidance is is 129. So we brought it down 100 units just a poin ...

Market Analysis - The free market is the most effective mechanism for problem-solving [1] - Local housing regulations impede the free market, leading to decreased home affordability [2] Policy Recommendation - Deregulation and increased construction are recommended [3] - Market prices will adjust in response to deregulation and increased construction [4]

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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential actions to lower U.S. mortgage rates may not be beneficial and could lead to another boom-and-bust cycle in the housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - Economists at Mizuho Securities express caution regarding the Federal Reserve's tools to artificially lower mortgage rates, emphasizing the risk of repeating past housing market mistakes [2][4]. - Current mortgage rates around 6.26% are not considered high historically, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely to be wary of using quantitative tools to depress long-term rates [4][5]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - The issue of home affordability is more related to home prices than mortgage rates, indicating that simply lowering rates may not resolve the underlying problems in the housing market [5]. - The bond market has experienced "euphoria" due to expectations of lower rates, which has positively impacted the nearly $10 trillion market for government-backed mortgage bonds [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The recent rally in the mortgage bond market has led to a decrease in mortgage rates, prompting many borrowers to refinance, particularly into riskier adjustable-rate loans [6]. - Suggestions have been made, such as Pimco's recommendation for the Fed to reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage bonds back into the sector to quickly reduce mortgage rates [6][7].

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Core Insights - Home affordability has reached near-record lows due to soaring home prices during the pandemic and rising interest rates in 2022, with the Federal Reserve noting an all-time high in the ratio of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Analysts are questioning whether an affordability bubble has formed, characterized by increasing home prices without corresponding increases in home values [2] - Home prices have begun to decline in several markets, including San Diego, San Francisco, and Austin, prompting real estate agents to advise buyers to negotiate aggressively for price reductions and other concessions [3] Group 2: Buying Strategies - Purchasing a fixer-upper at a discount can create immediate equity, providing insulation against price fluctuations [4] - Buyers are advised to plan for the long term, ideally staying in a home for at least five years to avoid being upside-down in case of temporary price drops [4][5] Group 3: Rental Considerations - In the event of needing to move sooner than expected, renting out the property could be a viable option, but potential landlords should be aware of the various expenses beyond the mortgage payment [6] - Most homes do not cash flow as rentals, but those that do can offer additional protection against a potential market downturn [7]

Core Insights - New homes are becoming more affordable in the current housing market, with the median list price for newly built homes decreasing to $448,393 in Q1 2025, the lowest price gap with existing homes in five years [1][4] - The construction of smaller homes and lower mortgage rates for new home buyers are contributing to this affordability trend [1][3] Market Dynamics - The U.S. is facing a shortage of approximately four million homes, with new construction helping to bridge the affordability gap left by a tight existing home market [2] - Builders are focusing on delivering smaller homes at lower prices, often providing financial incentives to make monthly payments more manageable [2][5] Mortgage Rate Trends - Buyers of newly built homes are securing mortgage rates about 0.5 percentage points lower than those purchasing existing homes, translating to over $160 in monthly savings on a median-priced new home [3][9] Price Premium Analysis - The premium on newly built homes has decreased to 13.5% in Q1 2025, the lowest since tracking began in 2020, due to a 1.3% decline in new home prices compared to rising existing home prices [4][9] - Newly built homes now account for 18.5% of active listings, which is higher than during the pandemic years [4] Regional Insights - Among the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, 26 markets have seen year-over-year declines in both median listing price and square footage of newly built homes, particularly in the South [6][7] - Notable price drops include Little Rock, Ark. with a 12.9% decrease, and significant reductions in Colorado Springs, Colo. and Oxnard, Calif. [7] Future Challenges - Proposed tariffs on key building materials, such as an increase in duties on Canadian lumber from 14% to 34%, could threaten the affordability gains achieved in recent quarters [8]