Core Insights - The American housing market in the early 2020s is characterized by high prices and limited supply, with a new development in 2026 where mortgage rates are decreasing while home prices remain high, leading to increased competition [1] - President Trump's housing agenda may exacerbate the situation by increasing demand without addressing supply constraints, potentially driving home prices higher [2] Mortgage Rates and Home Prices - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently around 6%, the lowest in several years, partly due to Trump's push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage bonds to keep borrowing costs low [3] - Lower mortgage rates can enhance a buyer's purchasing power by reducing monthly payments, which may lead to increased demand in a constrained supply market [3] Risks of Trump's Housing Plan - The potential risk of Trump's plan is that increased buying power could exert upward pressure on home prices in a low inventory market, with experts warning that even slight decreases in borrowing costs can lead to price increases under these conditions [4] - Trump's housing plan also includes executive actions to limit large investors' ability to purchase single-family homes, aiming to make homes more affordable for families rather than businesses [5] Expert Opinions on Supply and Demand - Real estate experts express skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's demand-side strategies, arguing that without significant increases in housing supply, these measures are unlikely to lower prices and may instead heighten competition for limited starter homes [6] Affordability Challenges - For first-time buyers, the interplay of lower mortgage rates and higher home prices complicates affordability, indicating that financing costs are not the sole factor, but rather a mix of market dynamics influenced by politics, policy, supply limitations, and competition [7]

Core Insights - The US housing market continues to experience a slump, with sales remaining at a 30-year low, totaling 4.06 million homes sold in 2025, unchanged from 2024, marking a decline every year since 2022 [1][4][5] - The median national home price increased by 1.7% to $414,400 in 2025, indicating persistent high prices despite low sales [2] - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was around 7% a year ago but fell to close to 6% by the end of 2025, contributing to a slight increase in sales in December [6][8] Sales Performance - Sales of previously occupied homes have been stagnant at around a 4-million annual pace since 2023, significantly below the historical norm of 5.2 million [4] - December 2025 saw existing home sales rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November, marking the fastest sales pace in nearly three years [6][8] - Despite the increase in sales in December, the overall trend remains negative, with sales having declined annually since 2022 [1][5] Price Trends - The median sales price in December 2025 reached $405,400, a 0.4% increase from December 2024, continuing a streak of 30 consecutive months of annual price increases [8][9] - The rise in home prices, coupled with elevated mortgage rates, continues to challenge affordability for many potential buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers [9] Economic Conditions - The housing market slump is attributed to rising mortgage rates that began in 2022, which have kept many prospective buyers out of the market [5] - Uncertainty regarding the economy and job market is also contributing to the hesitance of potential buyers to enter the housing market [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market continues to experience a slump, with sales remaining at a 30-year low as of 2025, primarily due to rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates [1][3] - Home sales of previously occupied homes totaled 4.06 million in 2025, unchanged from 2024, marking a decline every year since 2022 [1][2] - The median national home price increased by 1.7% to $414,400 in 2025, with sales stuck around a 4-million annual pace, significantly below the historical norm of 5.2 million [2] Sales Performance - December 2025 saw existing U.S. home sales rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November, marking the fastest sales pace in nearly three years [4] - This December also recorded a median sales price of $405,400, a 0.4% increase from December 2024, representing an all-time high for any previous December [5] Market Conditions - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was around 7% a year ago but eased to close to 6% by the end of 2025, contributing to improved sales conditions in the fourth quarter [3] - Despite lower mortgage rates, affordability remains a significant challenge for many potential homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, due to economic uncertainty and job market concerns [6]

Core Insights - U.S. existing home sales increased by 5.1% in December, reaching a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million units, surpassing economists' expectations of 4.21 million units [1][2] - Year-over-year home sales rose by 1.4%, indicating a slight improvement in the housing market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Lower mortgage rates and slow growth in house prices contributed to the acceleration in home sales [1][2] - Inventory levels of existing homes increased by 3.5% year-over-year to 1.18 million units in December, with a current sales pace indicating it would take 3.3 months to exhaust this inventory, up from 3.2 months a year ago [3] Group 2: Price Trends - The median existing home price rose by 0.4% year-over-year to $405,400, reflecting a modest increase in home values [4] - Proposed measures by President Trump to ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes aim to enhance affordability in the housing market [4]

Core Insights - The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has risen to 38, significantly higher than the historical range of 29 to 33 years old, indicating a shift in the demographics of homebuyers [1][2] Group 1: Challenges for First-Time Buyers - First-time buyers are facing high home prices, elevated mortgage interest rates, and limited inventory, resulting in them being a decade older and having significantly higher incomes compared to previous generations [2] - Rising property values across the nation make it difficult for young buyers with limited savings or student debt to afford down payments, while higher mortgage rates increase monthly costs, pricing many out of the market [4] - The scarcity of affordable housing options is exacerbated by builders focusing on luxury homes and existing homeowners holding onto properties longer, which shrinks inventory and drives up prices [4] Group 2: Financial Strategies - Building a strong financial foundation is essential, and finding a good mortgage can be critical; shopping around for rates can save thousands over the life of a loan [5] - Improving credit scores, reducing debt, and saving strategically can help secure better loan terms and lower interest rates, making homeownership more attainable [5] - Addressing financial roadblocks, such as prioritizing debt repayment, can be facilitated by consulting with a financial advisor [6]

Core Insights - Sales of previously occupied US homes increased by 0.5% in November compared to October, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units, but fell by 1% year-over-year [2] - The national median sales price for homes rose by 1.2% in November to $409,200, marking the highest price for any November since 1999 [4] - Home sales have been declining, with a 0.5% decrease in sales through the first 11 months of the year compared to the same period last year [2] Sales Performance - Existing home sales rose to an annual rate of 4.13 million units in November, slightly below the expected 4.14 million [2] - Sales of condominiums have decreased by 6.0% this year, contributing to the overall slowdown in home sales [3] - The forecast for existing home sales in 2025 suggests a potential slight decline unless December figures improve [3] Price Trends - Home prices have increased for 29 consecutive months, despite a sluggish housing market that began in 2022 [5] - The current inventory of unsold homes is 1.43 million, down 5.9% from October but up 7.5% from November last year, indicating a tight market [9] Mortgage Rates and Affordability - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.17% at the end of October, the lowest in over a year, providing some relief to homebuyers [6] - Affordability remains a significant challenge, particularly for first-time buyers, who accounted for only 30% of home sales last month, down from the historical average of 40% [7] Market Inventory - The current inventory translates to a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, which is below the traditional balanced market range of 5 to 6 months [9] - The number of homes for sale in November decreased from the previous month, despite a wider selection available compared to a year ago [8] Future Outlook - Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, forecasts a 14% increase in existing home sales next year, which is more optimistic than other forecasts ranging from 1.7% to 9% [10] - Economists expect the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to remain slightly above 6% next year [10]

Core Insights - Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes increased by 0.5% in November compared to October, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units, but showed a decline of 1% year-over-year for the first time since May [1][2] - The national median sales price rose by 1.2% in November from a year earlier, reaching an all-time high of $409,200, marking 29 consecutive months of annual price increases [4] - A shortage of homes for sale, particularly in the affordable segment, continues to impact first-time homebuyers, who accounted for only 30% of sales last month, down from a historical average of 40% [7] Sales Performance - Existing home sales are down 0.5% year-to-date compared to the same period last year, with a forecast suggesting that 2025 may see a slight decline unless December figures improve [2][3] - Sales have remained around a 4-million annual pace since 2023, significantly below the historical norm of 5.2 million [5] Mortgage Rates and Affordability - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.17% at the end of October, the lowest in over a year, contributing to a slight boost in sales [5] - Affordability remains a significant challenge for many potential buyers, particularly first-time buyers lacking equity from previous homes [6] Inventory and Market Conditions - There were 1.43 million unsold homes at the end of November, a decrease of 5.9% from October but an increase of 7.5% from the previous year, indicating a tight inventory situation [9] - The current inventory represents a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, below the balanced market range of 5 to 6 months [9] Future Outlook - The chief economist of NAR forecasts a 14% increase in existing home sales for next year, which is more optimistic than other forecasts ranging from 1.7% to 9% [10]

Home Price Trends - Home prices are fractionally lower year-over-year and down 1.4% in the last 3 months [1] - National home prices haven't been negative since mid-2023 [1] - Certain markets are seeing significant price drops, such as Austin (-10%), Denver (-5%), Tampa and Houston (-4%), and Atlanta (-3%) [1] - Other markets are seeing gains, including Cleveland (+6%), Chicago and New York City (+5%), Philadelphia (+3%), and Pittsburgh and Boston (+2%) [1] Market Analysis & Forecast - Parcel Labs' base case is that prices will hover around zero with small positive or negative year-over-year changes, rather than the double-digit gains of the pandemic era [1] - Home prices are influenced by mortgage rates and the broader health of the economy [2] - Supply will also play a role in home prices [2] Data & Methodology - Home price reporting is challenging due to different measurement methods [1] - Parcel uses a high-tech method for measuring home prices, which is considered current and accurate [1] - Measuring prices compared with the same time a year ago is important due to housing seasonality [1]

Market Transition - The housing market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market, marking the first shift in at least a decade [3] - Sellers are hesitant to lower prices due to concerns about not being able to pay off their mortgages, a situation unseen in 10-15 years [3][11] - The market is expected to remain in limbo until around the time of the Super Bowl, as people pack it in for the holidays and wait to see what direction the housing market will take [5] Factors Influencing Market Behavior - Macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility are causing people to hesitate on making 30-year commitments to new homes [5][6] - Lower interest rates, especially if they drop below 6%, would help the market [6] - Home prices need to adjust, as sales volume is down as much as 50% in some markets, but prices remain relatively stable, creating a standoff between buyers and sellers [7] Regional Cold Spots - Areas that were previously hot, like Florida and Texas, are now experiencing the most stale listings [12] - Over 70% of listings in Florida are stale [11] - The Washington DC area has seen a sharp increase in stale listings, potentially due to government uncertainty [11]

Key Issues - The financial difficulties of young people are illustrated by two charts [1] - The first chart shows the number of employees required to generate $1 million in revenue [1] - The second chart compares home prices to income levels [1]