Core Insights - The new housing market has not gained momentum despite policy support, product updates, and price stabilization [1] - The primary reason for the stagnation is the prevailing expectation issues among potential buyers [2] - The second-hand housing market has emerged as a significant obstacle to new housing sales [3] Market Dynamics - A market survey by 365 Market Research revealed that the typical "sell one buy one" replacement strategy has failed since 2021, leading to a decline in new housing transactions and an increase in second-hand housing transactions [4][5][6] - The gap between new and second-hand housing transactions has widened, with second-hand housing sales nearly doubling those of new homes in recent years [8][10] - The price difference between new and second-hand homes has increased from a maximum of 25% before 2021 to 66% currently, causing buyers to favor second-hand homes due to better pricing [9][10] Demand Shifts - The structural shift in demand has allowed first-time buyers to enter the market, competing with new homes for prime locations [11] - The current new housing market is primarily driven by improvement buyers, but the failure of the replacement chain has led to a backlog of improvement demand [14][16] - The urbanization rate in Tianjin has reached 86% by 2024, indicating a saturation point that limits new housing demand [17][21] Economic Context - The economic environment is currently in a downturn, leading to a downgrade in consumer spending and a preference for stable asset investments [22][23] - The consensus among sellers is that second-hand homes must lower prices to sell, with many opting to hold cash rather than reinvest in new homes [24][26][27] Policy Efforts - Recent policy measures, such as the "Good House" initiative and reductions in mortgage rates, aim to stimulate the new housing market [30][31] - However, the key to revitalizing new housing demand lies in stabilizing the second-hand housing market [32]