North America: Market's estimate is likely too low Pop Mart's stock movements in 4Q25 were highly correlated with high-frequency sales data for North America. The data suggest the company's NA sales in 4Q25 would be 25-30% lower than 3Q25, and 2025 would be meaningfully below Rmb7bn. We also think the market has extrapolated the trend and priced in a sales decline in NA for 2026. We are not able to verify any credit-card-based sales data, but note that it has been widely circulated in the investment communi ...