Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) market is rapidly growing, projected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 26% to 727 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the emotional consumption needs of Generation Z [1][3][15] -潮玩 differs significantly from traditional toys in terms of target audience, functionality, and value, focusing on artistic design and collectibility, primarily appealing to consumers aged 14 and above [1][19][24] Market Overview - The潮玩 market is characterized by a strong presence of brands like泡泡玛特, which leads the industry with its original IPs such as Labubu and Molly, leveraging social media for viral marketing and community engagement [2][3] - The潮玩 industry is integrating new technologies like XR, AI, and NFC to create interactive products, expanding the functionality and user engagement of潮玩 [2] Industry Structure - The潮玩 industry has established a complete value chain from IP rights holders to manufacturers and retailers, with IP being a core driver of consumer demand [2][3] - Notable IPs such as Disney and Pokémon continue to empower潮玩 products through licensing agreements, while domestic IPs like米哈游 are also emerging [2] Segment Analysis - Various潮玩 segments, including blind boxes, cards, and figurines, are experiencing rapid growth, with the "谷子经济" (secondary market) reaching a market size of 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, primarily targeting the post-2000 generation [2][3] International Expansion - Chinese潮玩 brands are expanding into Southeast Asia and North America, with泡泡玛特's overseas revenue growing by 375.2% year-on-year in 2024, indicating increasing global competitiveness [3] Future Outlook - The潮玩 economy reflects a shift in the Chinese toy industry from manufacturing to creativity, with expectations for higher quality growth as technology integration and IP content continue to evolve [3]

November 16, 2025 11:13 PM GMT Pop Mart | Asia Pacific M Update Fun Bites: Labubu Goes Hollywood Key Takeaways Timely news to ease negative narrative on Labubu: We think market has underestimated Pop Mart's proactive measures in driving IP popularity. Beyond new product launches, its engagement in entertainment - such as theme parks, movies, and celebrity collaboration - are effective measures to sustain its IP lifecycle, in our view. If this movie deal comes to fruition, potential upside for consumer reach ...

Core Insights - TOP TOY has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step for the brand under the ownership of Miniso, which recently acquired Yonghui Supermarket [1] - The founder of Miniso, Ye Guofu, expresses strong confidence in the retail sector, indicating a strategic vision for expanding TOP TOY alongside its other retail ventures [1] - TOP TOY aims to position itself closer to the success of Pop Mart, despite following a different business model, by enhancing its own IP portfolio and expanding overseas [1][4] Business Model Analysis - The collectible toy industry features three primary business models: licensed IP, proprietary IP, and third-party IP [2] - TOP TOY incorporates all three models but is increasing its focus on proprietary IP ahead of its IPO [3] - By 2025, TOP TOY's proprietary IP is expected to contribute 5%-10% of total revenue, compared to Pop Mart's 90% [4] Financial Performance Comparison - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a profit of approximately 4.6 billion, while TOP TOY's profit was only 180 million, highlighting a significant disparity in revenue scale and profit margins [6] - Pop Mart's gross margin stands at 70.3%, more than double that of TOP TOY, indicating a challenge for TOP TOY in achieving similar profitability [9] Strategic Initiatives - TOP TOY's strategy includes reducing reliance on third-party IP and increasing proprietary product development to enhance profit margins [13] - The company has successfully launched its proprietary IP "Nuomi Er," achieving sales of 50 million within a year and a half, aiming to replicate the success of Pop Mart's Molly [13][21] - TOP TOY is also focusing on expanding its online sales, which currently account for only 8.5% of total sales, compared to Pop Mart's 35.5% [14] Global Expansion Plans - TOP TOY has initiated a global strategy to establish 1,000 overseas stores within five years, leveraging its existing retail network for market penetration [18][19] - The company plans to utilize its extensive offline presence, including nearly 300 brand stores and over 8,000 stores from Miniso and Yonghui, to gather consumer data and refine its IP selection process [19][22] Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY is currently perceived as following Pop Mart's lead rather than innovating, as evidenced by its recent product adaptations [20] - The company recognizes the importance of capital in acquiring successful IPs, with plans to leverage its market position for future growth [21] - The ability to effectively market and distribute IPs through its extensive channels is seen as a critical advantage for TOP TOY [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in popularity of Labubu is not indicative of a deterioration in the company's fundamentals, as Bubble Mart is not solely an IP toy company but a platform for creating and commercializing various IPs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent sales data from the U.S. market showed a significant slowdown in growth compared to Q3 2025, leading to concerns about Labubu's brand strength [2] - The slowdown in sales is attributed to the pre-sale of Labubu in July and August, which exhausted future market demand and strained the supply chain [2] - However, sales data for the first week of November indicates a return to higher growth rates, with expectations for continued strong sales during the Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons [2] Group 2: Growth Potential in North America and Europe - Despite impressive growth in the Americas, this region accounted for only 16.3% of the company's total revenue in the first half of 2025, with projections of around 20% for the full year [3] - The company has only 41 retail stores in North America compared to 443 in Greater China, indicating significant room for expansion [3] - The European market also shows potential, with only 3.4% of total revenue coming from this region and just 18 retail stores as of the end of the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Stock Performance - Bubble Mart is recognized as a leader in the global trendy toy industry, with solid fundamentals and a high certainty of long-term growth [4] - The current stock price has fallen to 15 times the estimated P/E for 2026, suggesting a high value proposition [4] - Short-selling activity has decreased, indicating improving market sentiment, and the company is expected to see a rebound in stock price and valuation as growth certainty for 2026 increases [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 286.9, representing a potential upside of 32.0% from the current price of HKD 217.4 [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the company is not solely reliant on the popularity of its Labubu IP, but rather operates as a platform for creating and commercializing multiple IPs. The ability to launch new successful IPs is seen as a key competitive advantage [5]. - Recent sales trends in the U.S. market have shown a recovery, with expectations for continued growth during the holiday season. The report suggests that the recent slowdown in sales was largely due to pre-sales in previous months [5]. - The company has significant growth potential in the North American and European markets, which currently represent a small portion of total revenue. The report highlights the potential for expansion through physical retail stores in these regions [5]. - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a P/E ratio of 15 times the estimated earnings for 2026, indicating high value for investors [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with estimated revenues of RMB 38,003 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 191.5% [7][10]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 12,920 million in 2025, representing a significant increase of 313.4% compared to the previous year [7][10]. - The report outlines a steady improvement in profit margins, with gross profit margins projected to rise to 70.8% by 2025 [10][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock has experienced volatility, but recent data suggests a recovery in market sentiment, with short-selling activity decreasing [5]. - The report notes that the company's sales in the domestic market have shown impressive growth, with online sales increasing by 212% in the first half of 2025 [11]. Regional Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 440% increase in overseas revenue, with North America showing a staggering growth rate of 1,142% [11]. - The report indicates that the company has only a limited number of retail stores in North America and Europe, suggesting significant room for growth in these markets [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns regarding Pop Mart's growth sustainability and single IP risk are considered excessive, with the company's core value lying in its unparalleled IP incubation and operational capabilities [1][4]. Group 1: IP Strength and Growth - The flagship IP Labubu has strong vitality, with its 4.0 version postponed to 2026 due to high demand for Labubu 3.0, and Sony Pictures is reported to have acquired the film adaptation rights, potentially enhancing the IP's global recognition [4][8]. - The company is diversifying its growth engines by actively managing online pre-sale scales to ensure sustainable IP operations, with a successful IP matrix formed around Labubu, SKULLPANDA, and CRYBABY, effectively mitigating risks [4][9]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Market Performance - Pop Mart's global expansion is exceeding expectations, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, with plans to optimize operations and deepen local market channels [6][10]. - The company aims to operate over 60 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with additional plans for Canada, Latin America, and the Middle East, emphasizing localized operations and partnerships [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Financial projections indicate significant growth, with net profit expected to rise from 1.082 billion RMB in 2023 to 23.169 billion RMB by 2027, and diluted EPS increasing from 0.807 RMB to 17.370 RMB over the same period [7]. - Citi has set a target price of 415.00 HKD for Pop Mart, representing a potential upside of 91.8% from the closing price of 216.40 HKD, based on a 28x P/E ratio for 2026 [1][13].

Group 1: Emotional Consumption Insights - The core truths revealed by the popularity of Labubu include emotional rewards amid economic uncertainty, reflecting the "lipstick effect" in a new cycle [1] - The Z generation expresses dual themes of rebellion and healing through their consumption choices, serving as an "identity password" [1] - The desire for identity class "leap" is driven by scarcity, fostering community recognition [1] Group 2: AI Application in Midea Group - Efficiency-driven AI applications have significantly reduced costs in various scenarios, such as translating financial documents at one-tenth of the original cost and achieving 99% accuracy in installation acceptance [2] - Midea Group has saved hundreds of millions through AI applications in finance, HR, and legal areas, enhancing collaboration and operational efficiency [2] Group 3: Organizational Transformation of Midea Group - Midea's organizational transformation effectively addressed the challenges of centralized rigidity and decentralized chaos, enabling strategic implementation and operational enthusiasm [3] - The company is evolving its organization further through AI-driven initiatives, creating an open ecological organization that blurs traditional boundaries [3] - Midea's structural evolution from a divisional system to a diversified business group aligns with its strategic development, balancing shareholder, customer, and co-creation values [3]

Market Overview - The decline in the stock markets is attributed to multiple negative factors over the weekend, with Hong Kong stocks dropping by 0.71% [1] - The most significant influence on the stock market is the deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, particularly comments from Japan's Prime Minister suggesting potential military involvement in Taiwan, prompting strong responses from China [1] - The Chinese government has advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, indicating potential impacts on Japanese tourism and consumer stocks [1] Economic and Investment Insights - There is considerable uncertainty in the current market, leading to a risk-averse approach from investors; traditionally, gold prices rise during tensions, but they have fallen this time due to expectations of no hot war [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to inject medium-term liquidity, with market focus shifting to the upcoming LPR announcement on November 20 [3] - Predictions for lithium prices suggest a potential surge due to structural changes in demand, particularly from the energy storage sector, with a forecasted price increase to 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [3] Company Developments - CATL's stock fell nearly 3% following news of a major shareholder's plan to reduce holdings by 1%, valued at approximately 18.4 billion yuan [4] - The organic silicon industry is facing significant price declines, with a potential meeting to set production reduction targets that could benefit leading companies like Dongyue Group [4] - Huawei is set to release a breakthrough AI technology on November 21, which could significantly enhance the efficiency of computing resources, benefiting companies collaborating with Huawei [6] Airline Industry Performance - China Eastern Airlines reported a turnaround in Q3, achieving a net profit of 2.103 billion yuan compared to a loss in the previous year, with a 3.73% increase in revenue [7] - The airline has expanded its international routes, including a new long-haul route that will set a record for the longest single journey, enhancing its competitive edge [8] - The overall airline industry is experiencing a recovery, with rising passenger traffic and improved load factors, supported by decreasing oil prices [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, and Haidilao, while Budweiser Asia is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the food and beverage sector, including Luckin Coffee's preparation for relisting in the U.S. and the launch of new store formats by Jiumaojiu Group's hot pot brand [5][6]. - The retail sales data for October shows a total retail sales figure of 46,291 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, indicating a slight recovery in consumer spending [5]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings - Key companies rated "Outperform" include: - Pop Mart - Anta Sports - Haidilao - China Feihe - New Oriental Online - Others [1]. Weekly Performance - Top performers in the food and beverage sector include: - Auntea Jenny (+31.4%) - Haidilao (+7.0%) - Underperformers include: - Xiabuxiabu (-13.1%) [2][6]. Industry News - Notable industry news includes: - Luckin Coffee's plans for a U.S. relisting - Sony's production of a Labubu-themed movie - Jiumaojiu Group's new hot pot store opening - Xiabuxiabu's marketing activities leading to a 45% increase in repeat visits from existing members in certain cities [5][6].

Core Insights - Sony Pictures has acquired the film adaptation rights for the popular Chinese潮玩 brand, Labubu, which is under the ownership of Pop Mart [1] - The project is in its early stages, with no confirmed producers or directors, and the format (live-action or animation) has yet to be decided [1] Company Overview - Labubu, designed by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung, gained popularity after its launch in 2019 through blind box sales [1] - The character's rise to fame has been significantly influenced by endorsements from celebrities such as Lisa from the Korean girl group Blackpink and singer Rihanna [1] Industry Impact - Labubu has become a global phenomenon in the潮玩 market, contributing to the overall success of the Pop Mart brand [1]