North America: Market's estimate is likely too low Pop Mart's stock movements in 4Q25 were highly correlated with high-frequency sales data for North America. The data suggest the company's NA sales in 4Q25 would be 25-30% lower than 3Q25, and 2025 would be meaningfully below Rmb7bn. We also think the market has extrapolated the trend and priced in a sales decline in NA for 2026. We are not able to verify any credit-card-based sales data, but note that it has been widely circulated in the investment communi ...

大摩认为市场过度关注泡泡玛特北美市场的高频销售数据，严重低估了公司的真实价值。 追风交易台消息，1月5日，摩根士丹利Dustin Wei的研究团队发表研报，指出市场对泡泡玛特北美业务 的悲观预期存在严重偏差，投资者过度依赖难以验证的信用卡消费数据，却忽视了泡泡玛特在中国和亚 洲市场的强劲增长动能。 市场基于信用卡数据推算的2025年北美销售额低至60亿元人民币，大摩则预计为71亿元。更重要的是， 研报认为投资者过度关注北美市场和Labubu单一IP，当前公司在中国和亚太地区的基本面强劲，同时 非Labubu IP产品的增长快速。 大摩预计2026年盈利增长达21%。若公司能实现每季度约10%的环比增长，销售额将达到大摩的最乐观 的预期——600亿元人民币销售额及198亿元人民币净利润，这意味着预期盈利增长45-50%。一旦泡泡 玛特开始展现明确的环比增长，股价将出现积极反应。 北美销售预期可能过低 广泛流传的信用卡消费数据显示，泡泡玛特2025年北美销售额仅为60亿元人民币左右的低位。 这些数据显示2025年第四季度北美销售额较第三季度下降25-30%，且市场已将这一趋势外推至2026 年，定价为北美市场将出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Labubu economy" is facing significant challenges as the secondary market's premium ability declines, leading to a loss of appeal for Pop Mart in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - Investors are reassessing whether Pop Mart can maintain its high growth narrative and if its core IP is merely a fleeting trend [2] - Reports of weakened demand from scalpers have caused Pop Mart's stock to drop by 6.2%, marking its largest decline in three weeks and making it one of the worst performers in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index [2] - Since peaking in August, Pop Mart's stock has fallen approximately 44%, resulting in a market value loss of over $25 billion [5] Group 2: Secondary Market Dynamics - The sell-off was triggered by reports of significant price volatility in the secondary market, indicating weak demand and causing some scalpers to halt their stockpiling activities [4] - Data from the resale platform Qianshao shows that the average price of the mini Labubu set has fallen below the official retail price, with the "Sit Down" series dropping from nearly $400 to about $110 [8] Group 3: Growth Concerns and Market Expansion - Pop Mart's revenue growth in North America has slowed to 424%, halving compared to the previous quarter [10] - Despite aggressive marketing efforts, disappointing performance during the U.S. Black Friday and cooling resale demand have raised concerns about Pop Mart's long-term viability as a brand comparable to Disney or Sanrio [11] Group 4: Valuation and Diversification Efforts - Some institutional investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to negative market sentiment and uncertainties regarding future earnings per share [14] - Pop Mart is attempting to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single IP by investing in other IPs and expanding into the entertainment sector, including theme parks and film development [15]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the IP collectibles market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$37.7 billion as of November 27, 2025 Key Points 2026 Outlook - **Price Target**: Adjusted from HK$382.00 to HK$325.00, reflecting market conditions and growth expectations [1] - **Sales Forecast**: Expected total sales of Rmb48 billion in 2026, representing a 26% year-over-year growth [11] - **Growth Drivers**: Sustained momentum anticipated from China and APAC regions, supported by strategic marketing and store openings in the US [1][2] Performance Metrics - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Labubu sales projected at Rmb15.5 billion in 2025, with growth moderating to 13% in 2026 [3][17] - Non-Labubu IPs expected to contribute Rmb22.4 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 35% in 2026 [11][13] - **Net Profit Margin**: Expected to remain high, around 32% in 2026, supported by lower advertising and promotional expenses [4][46] Market Dynamics - **US Market Growth**: Forecasted sales growth of 34% in 2026, with a long-term view that the US market could surpass China due to its size and demand for IP collectibles [22][23] - **Offline Expansion**: Emphasis on increasing offline presence, which currently accounts for only 35% of US revenue, compared to 60% in the broader toy and hobby category [25][30] Strategic Initiatives - **Product Launches**: Management plans to increase product launches in 2026, including new figurine collections and plush series [20][21] - **Localized Marketing**: Enhanced marketing efforts to strengthen Labubu's global presence through localized designs and collaborations [31][32] Financial Adjustments - **P/E Ratio**: Target P/E reduced from 32x to 26x for 2026, reflecting unfavorable market conditions and a focus on near-term growth [5][59] - **Sales Volatility**: Increased sales volatility expected in the short term due to market dynamics and consumer behavior shifts [5][59] Regional Insights - **Greater China**: Sales estimated at Rmb21 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 22% in 2026 [38] - **APAC Opportunities**: Strong growth potential in Japan and Korea, leveraging cultural similarities and consumer preferences [42][43] Risks and Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: Current bearish sentiment may overlook the long-term growth potential driven by a recurring customer base [2][3] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Management is exploring production options in Latin America to shorten supply chains and improve US operations [35] Conclusion - Pop Mart is positioned for sustained growth in the IP collectibles market, with strategic initiatives aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing brand presence both domestically and internationally. The company’s focus on offline expansion and localized marketing efforts is expected to drive future sales growth, despite current market volatility and adjustments in financial projections.

Summary of Pop Mart (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group Ltd - **Industry**: Pop toy industry - **Market Position**: Largest pop toy company in China, expanding globally with strong IP incubation and monetization capabilities [17][18] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue Growth**: Achieved revenue growth of **245-250% YoY**, driven by **185-190% YoY** growth in the PRC and **365-370% YoY** growth in overseas markets [1][2] - **1H25 Comparison**: Revenue growth in 1H25 was **204% YoY**, indicating a significant acceleration in the latter half of the year [2] - **Sales Channels**: - **PRC Offline Sales**: Grew by **130-135% YoY** - **PRC Online Sales**: Surged by **300-305% YoY** - **Overseas Sales**: - **America**: **1265-1270% YoY** - **Europe & Others**: **735-740% YoY** - **APAC**: **170-175% YoY** [2][9] Operational Insights - **IP Recognition**: The company is enhancing its IP influence through marketing events and collaborations, including a **10th Anniversary Global Tour** and art installations [3] - **Product Launches**: New product releases, particularly under the **TWINKLE TWINKLE** IP, are driving rapid sell-through rates [3] Financial Projections - **Target Price**: Increased to **HK$415**, reflecting a **65.7% expected return** from the current price of **HK$250.40** [4][8] - **Earnings Forecast Adjustments**: FY25-27E earnings forecast adjusted upwards by **16.8-17.3%** due to a more promising sales outlook [1][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - FY25E P/E: **22.6x** - FY26E P/E: **16.7x** [1][8] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Maintain a **Buy** rating, emphasizing the importance of sell-through trends over secondary market performance [1][18] - **Market Cap**: Approximately **HK$336,273 million** (US$43,289 million) [4] Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Landscape**: Rising competition in China's pop toy market with new entrants [21] - **Global Expansion Risks**: Potential disappointments in overseas market performance [21] - **IP Commercialization**: Risks associated with the inability to effectively commercialize IPs and renew licenses [21][20] Conclusion Pop Mart is positioned for continued growth driven by strong revenue performance, effective IP management, and a robust marketing strategy. However, investors should remain cautious of competitive pressures and execution risks in its global expansion efforts.

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the brand popularity of Pop Mart (09992) is expected to rebound due to the launch of the "Labubu and Friends" animation and Labubu 4.0 version, with search interest for "Mini Labubu" rising since June, now comparable to Skullpanda and Dimoo [1] - The search index for Skullpanda increased by 40% compared to May, anticipating the release of a new plush toy series in June, while Crybaby's average search index remained stable from July to August [1] - The global social media engagement for Pop Mart's official accounts rose by 3% over the past two weeks, leading Morgan Stanley to maintain an "overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 400 for Pop Mart [1] Group 2 - Mini and large-sized Labubu are identified as hot-selling items, with the "THE MONSTERS Pin For Love" series (mini version) and "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" series (40 cm version) selling out within one minute during their launch on August 28 [2] - The pricing for Mini Labubu is set at RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, with secondary market prices showing a 45% increase as of September 5, while the large Labubu is priced at RMB 499 and HKD 583, with a 56% increase in secondary market prices [2] Group 3 - Twinkle Twinkle is recognized as an emerging IP, with Pop Mart planning to launch it in August 2024, projecting sales of RMB 389 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than other IPs like Crybaby and Hirono [3] - The "Sweet Dream Forecast" series, priced at RMB 79 and HKD 95, is set to launch in mid-August 2025 and is expected to sell out quickly, with secondary market prices showing a premium of 110% in mainland China and 36% overseas as of September 5 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing strong performance in its new IP product line, with popular products frequently sold out due to supply constraints rather than weak demand. The global IP market presents significant growth opportunities, with the company expected to achieve substantial revenue growth by 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Performance - The new IP product line, including Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle, is performing well, indicating a supply bottleneck rather than a lack of demand [6][8]. - Popular products such as Twinkle Twinkle's "Bee Your Honey" figurine (priced at 199 RMB) and various Crybaby products (priced between 79-199 RMB) are experiencing stock shortages [7]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Brand Collaborations - The company is actively expanding its global presence and engaging in cross-brand collaborations, such as partnerships with Godiva and Chopard [9]. - New stores have opened in key cities like Berlin and Melbourne, indicating strong consumer interest in the company's IP and products [9]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.046 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 138% year-on-year growth, and 42.994 billion RMB in 2026, with a 38% growth [10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 9.821 billion RMB in 2025, a 205% increase, and 13.965 billion RMB in 2026, a 42% increase [11]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global IP market is estimated to be worth approximately 800 billion USD, with the company's market share currently at only 2.3%, indicating substantial growth potential [14]. - The company aims to evolve into a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, and Disney, suggesting that its growth story is still in the early stages [14]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The current stock price of 246 HKD offers over 48% upside potential to the target price of 365 HKD, based on a projected P/E ratio of 46 times for 2025 [16][19]. - The company’s strong IP product flywheel effect and efficient direct sales model are seen as key to successful global expansion [16].

Core Insights - Labubu dolls, a product of Pop Mart, are rapidly gaining popularity in the U.S. as a fashionable accessory and collectible, following years of brand awareness growth in China [2][3] - The sales of Pop Mart's plush toys, including Labubu, have seen astronomical growth, with a 1,200% increase from 2023 to 2024, making plush toys account for over 20% of total revenue in 2024 [4] - Pop Mart's revenue in North America surged by over 550% from 2023 to 2024, with a remarkable 900% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [5][6] Sales and Market Dynamics - The shift in Pop Mart's consumer base is significant, with nearly half of its revenue expected to come from outside China in 2025, compared to virtually all revenue coming from mainland China in 2021 [6] - Foot traffic to Pop Mart's stores has increased significantly, and searches for Labubu in the U.S. are at an all-time high, indicating strong consumer interest [7] - Labubu dolls have become a gateway for consumers to explore other Pop Mart products, with some customers allocating a significant portion of their discretionary spending to the brand [8][9] Cultural Impact and Brand Engagement - The popularity of Labubu has been bolstered by celebrity endorsements and social media engagement, with notable figures showcasing the dolls [11][12] - Labubu's status as a fashion accessory rather than just a toy has been emphasized, with analysts noting its appeal as a collectible item that is more accessible than luxury alternatives [14] - The exclusivity and limited availability of Labubu dolls have contributed to their desirability, creating a status symbol among consumers [14][16] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's stock has increased over 500% in the past year, reflecting investor confidence despite recent concerns about the sustainability of growth [9] - Labubu accounted for approximately $423 million of Pop Mart's global revenue in 2024, highlighting its significant contribution to the company's financial performance [10] Consumer Behavior - The trend of purchasing Labubu dolls aligns with consumer behavior during economic uncertainty, where shoppers gravitate towards collectible items [15] - The perception of Labubu dolls as "ugly-cute" has also played a role in their appeal, with consumers finding charm in their unconventional appearance [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is experiencing significant revenue and net profit growth, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming years [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of 45.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, and a net profit of 9.21 billion yuan, up 93.32% [1][2]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of no less than 200% and net profit growth of no less than 350% for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1][4]. Growth Drivers - The board attributes the substantial growth to increased global brand recognition, diverse product offerings, and continuous revenue growth across all regional markets [3]. - The rising proportion of overseas revenue has positively impacted gross and net profit margins, alongside scale effects enhancing profitability [3]. - Cost optimization and improved expense management have further strengthened the company's profitability [3]. Future Outlook - Management is confident in achieving over 50% sales growth in 2025, with overseas sales expected to double, targeting overall sales of 200 billion yuan and overseas sales exceeding 100 billion yuan [4]. Market Performance - Since January, Pop Mart's stock price has surged over 200%, reaching a peak of 283.4 HKD, although it has recently experienced a correction, closing at 263.20 HKD on July 15 [5]. - Analysts are optimistic about Pop Mart's future, with target prices exceeding 300 HKD, citing the strong performance of various IPs and the company's core competencies in IP incubation and operation [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses Pop Mart's expansion into the European market, highlighting the popularity of its IP Labubu and the challenges it faces in maintaining growth and supply [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The European collectible toy market has been growing rapidly since its inception about a decade ago, with Pop Mart capitalizing on this trend [1][3]. - The primary consumer demographic for Pop Mart in Europe is young women aged 15 to 25, with initial popularity stemming from the Asian community and later boosted by social media influencers and celebrities [4][3]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - A significant challenge for Pop Mart is supply shortages, which can negatively impact consumer and distributor experiences and lead to counterfeit products entering the market [6][8]. - The company is also facing competition from established international brands like be@rbrick and Tokidoki, as well as emerging Chinese competitors such as 52TOYS and Funism [8][15]. Group 3: Importance of Innovation and Storytelling - The collectible toy market is fundamentally supply-driven, with continuous product innovation being crucial for sustained growth [17]. - To deepen emotional connections with consumers, Pop Mart needs to invest in content creation that supports its IPs, such as stories, films, and books [17]. Group 4: Secondary Market Dynamics - The secondary market plays a vital role in the collectible toy industry, with approximately 30% of be@rbrick's sales in Europe coming from this segment [17]. - However, the scale of Pop Mart's presence in the secondary market remains difficult to measure [17].