Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing strong performance in its new IP product line, with popular products frequently sold out due to supply constraints rather than weak demand. The global IP market presents significant growth opportunities, with the company expected to achieve substantial revenue growth by 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Performance - The new IP product line, including Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle, is performing well, indicating a supply bottleneck rather than a lack of demand [6][8]. - Popular products such as Twinkle Twinkle's "Bee Your Honey" figurine (priced at 199 RMB) and various Crybaby products (priced between 79-199 RMB) are experiencing stock shortages [7]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Brand Collaborations - The company is actively expanding its global presence and engaging in cross-brand collaborations, such as partnerships with Godiva and Chopard [9]. - New stores have opened in key cities like Berlin and Melbourne, indicating strong consumer interest in the company's IP and products [9]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.046 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 138% year-on-year growth, and 42.994 billion RMB in 2026, with a 38% growth [10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 9.821 billion RMB in 2025, a 205% increase, and 13.965 billion RMB in 2026, a 42% increase [11]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global IP market is estimated to be worth approximately 800 billion USD, with the company's market share currently at only 2.3%, indicating substantial growth potential [14]. - The company aims to evolve into a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, and Disney, suggesting that its growth story is still in the early stages [14]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The current stock price of 246 HKD offers over 48% upside potential to the target price of 365 HKD, based on a projected P/E ratio of 46 times for 2025 [16][19]. - The company’s strong IP product flywheel effect and efficient direct sales model are seen as key to successful global expansion [16].

Core Insights - Labubu dolls, a product of Pop Mart, are rapidly gaining popularity in the U.S. as a fashionable accessory and collectible, following years of brand awareness growth in China [2][3] - The sales of Pop Mart's plush toys, including Labubu, have seen astronomical growth, with a 1,200% increase from 2023 to 2024, making plush toys account for over 20% of total revenue in 2024 [4] - Pop Mart's revenue in North America surged by over 550% from 2023 to 2024, with a remarkable 900% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [5][6] Sales and Market Dynamics - The shift in Pop Mart's consumer base is significant, with nearly half of its revenue expected to come from outside China in 2025, compared to virtually all revenue coming from mainland China in 2021 [6] - Foot traffic to Pop Mart's stores has increased significantly, and searches for Labubu in the U.S. are at an all-time high, indicating strong consumer interest [7] - Labubu dolls have become a gateway for consumers to explore other Pop Mart products, with some customers allocating a significant portion of their discretionary spending to the brand [8][9] Cultural Impact and Brand Engagement - The popularity of Labubu has been bolstered by celebrity endorsements and social media engagement, with notable figures showcasing the dolls [11][12] - Labubu's status as a fashion accessory rather than just a toy has been emphasized, with analysts noting its appeal as a collectible item that is more accessible than luxury alternatives [14] - The exclusivity and limited availability of Labubu dolls have contributed to their desirability, creating a status symbol among consumers [14][16] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's stock has increased over 500% in the past year, reflecting investor confidence despite recent concerns about the sustainability of growth [9] - Labubu accounted for approximately $423 million of Pop Mart's global revenue in 2024, highlighting its significant contribution to the company's financial performance [10] Consumer Behavior - The trend of purchasing Labubu dolls aligns with consumer behavior during economic uncertainty, where shoppers gravitate towards collectible items [15] - The perception of Labubu dolls as "ugly-cute" has also played a role in their appeal, with consumers finding charm in their unconventional appearance [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is experiencing significant revenue and net profit growth, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming years [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of 45.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, and a net profit of 9.21 billion yuan, up 93.32% [1][2]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of no less than 200% and net profit growth of no less than 350% for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1][4]. Growth Drivers - The board attributes the substantial growth to increased global brand recognition, diverse product offerings, and continuous revenue growth across all regional markets [3]. - The rising proportion of overseas revenue has positively impacted gross and net profit margins, alongside scale effects enhancing profitability [3]. - Cost optimization and improved expense management have further strengthened the company's profitability [3]. Future Outlook - Management is confident in achieving over 50% sales growth in 2025, with overseas sales expected to double, targeting overall sales of 200 billion yuan and overseas sales exceeding 100 billion yuan [4]. Market Performance - Since January, Pop Mart's stock price has surged over 200%, reaching a peak of 283.4 HKD, although it has recently experienced a correction, closing at 263.20 HKD on July 15 [5]. - Analysts are optimistic about Pop Mart's future, with target prices exceeding 300 HKD, citing the strong performance of various IPs and the company's core competencies in IP incubation and operation [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses Pop Mart's expansion into the European market, highlighting the popularity of its IP Labubu and the challenges it faces in maintaining growth and supply [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The European collectible toy market has been growing rapidly since its inception about a decade ago, with Pop Mart capitalizing on this trend [1][3]. - The primary consumer demographic for Pop Mart in Europe is young women aged 15 to 25, with initial popularity stemming from the Asian community and later boosted by social media influencers and celebrities [4][3]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - A significant challenge for Pop Mart is supply shortages, which can negatively impact consumer and distributor experiences and lead to counterfeit products entering the market [6][8]. - The company is also facing competition from established international brands like be@rbrick and Tokidoki, as well as emerging Chinese competitors such as 52TOYS and Funism [8][15]. Group 3: Importance of Innovation and Storytelling - The collectible toy market is fundamentally supply-driven, with continuous product innovation being crucial for sustained growth [17]. - To deepen emotional connections with consumers, Pop Mart needs to invest in content creation that supports its IPs, such as stories, films, and books [17]. Group 4: Secondary Market Dynamics - The secondary market plays a vital role in the collectible toy industry, with approximately 30% of be@rbrick's sales in Europe coming from this segment [17]. - However, the scale of Pop Mart's presence in the secondary market remains difficult to measure [17].

Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart is experiencing explosive growth globally, driven by the popularity of the Labubu toy, leading to a 27% increase in stock price over the past 40 days [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expansion - Bubble Mart's cross-cultural appeal indicates that its total addressable market (TAM) is significantly larger than previously expected, especially in the European and American markets where penetration is just beginning [4][5]. - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, adding 31 new stores this year, bringing the total to 161, with North America and Europe accounting for 35% of this total [5][9]. Group 2: Product Line Development - The recent launch of the "Labubu 3.0" series has sold out in both domestic and international markets, indicating strong demand [7]. - The upcoming "Wacky Mart" series, set to launch on June 13, will include a diverse range of products, with prices 30%-185% higher than standard figures, which is expected to enhance gross margins [7]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Deutsche Bank has raised its revenue forecast for Bubble Mart, predicting a 122% year-on-year increase to 28.89 billion RMB in 2025, with overseas revenue expected to rise from 39% in 2024 to 55% in 2025 [9][10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is set at 7.91 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 27.4%, up from 24.0% in 2024 [9][10]. - The report also indicates a 20-25% increase in EPS expectations for 2025-2027, reflecting the growing contribution from overseas markets [10][12]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Deutsche Bank has raised its target price for Bubble Mart from 200 HKD to 303 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating, with expectations significantly above market consensus for 2025 revenue and net profit [12].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has gained significant popularity overseas, evidenced by a recent incident in the UK where a large-scale brawl occurred over the limited edition Labubu toy, leading to the company's decision to halt sales in the UK [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Reaction - Pop Mart's stock price surged, reaching a historical high of 235.6 HKD on June 3, with a market capitalization exceeding 310 billion HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 160% [3][4]. - Despite the stock's impressive performance, many retail investors express skepticism, believing it to be another bubble, while institutional investors have largely missed out on this capital feast [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Challenges - Institutional investors have struggled to adapt to the changing consumer landscape, often entering and exiting positions at inopportune times, leading to significant losses [6][7]. - The traditional investment mindset, focused on established metrics like brand strength and cash flow, has hindered many fund managers from recognizing the potential of Pop Mart's innovative business model [8][12]. Group 3: New Consumer Trends and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its unique IP creation model, which has allowed it to generate significant revenue from overseas markets, with international sales projected to reach 30% by mid-2024 [9][10]. - The company has effectively tapped into the emotional and identity-driven consumption trends of the Z generation, which is expected to control 27% of global disposable income by 2025 [15][16]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards emotional fulfillment and collectible items indicates a broader transformation in the consumption landscape, challenging traditional investment paradigms [17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The concentrated ownership structure of Pop Mart, with the top 25 shareholders holding over 85% of shares, raises concerns about stock price volatility and market sensitivity to liquidity [16]. - Despite potential risks, the transition in consumption investment logic is seen as inevitable, with other brands also demonstrating the power of new consumer trends [17].