Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The industry revenue for 2024 is expected to see a slight increase, with a growth rate at a historical low. The total revenue is projected to reach 699.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, significantly lower than the compound annual growth rate of 5.8% from 2020 to 2023 [4][19] - In 2025 Q1, the industry revenue continues to grow with a recovery in growth rate, totaling 139.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [5][55] - The profit margin is under pressure due to weak demand, with the gross margin for 2024 at 32.3%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -140 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 101% [4][21] - The AI sector continues to show strong demand, while the government sector (G-end) is under pressure but shows initial signs of recovery in 2025 Q1. The B-end demand remains stable [6][78] Summary by Sections 2024 Annual Report Overview - The total revenue for the computer industry in 2024 is expected to be 699.88 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown compared to previous years [4][19] - The gross margin is projected to decline to 32.3%, reflecting increased competition and pressure on pricing [21] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -140 million yuan, indicating a severe decline in profitability [21] 2025 Q1 Report Overview - The total revenue for 2025 Q1 is projected to be 139.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [5][55] - The gross margin for 2025 Q1 is expected to be 31.2%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [59] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve to -470 million yuan, a year-on-year improvement of 80.9% [59][61] Industry Segmentation - The AI sector continues to experience high demand, with revenue growth in IT services, data processing, and artificial intelligence expected to persist [6][78] - The government sector shows initial signs of recovery in 2025 Q1, although it faced negative growth in 2024 [6][78] - The B-end demand remains stable, with certain sectors benefiting from policy support and industrial transformation [6][78] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors expected to see early improvements, including cloud infrastructure, domestic computing power, AI agents, and domestic innovation [7]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 重仓超配回暖，拥抱 AI 趋势--计算机行业 2025Q1 基金持仓分析 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 宋浪 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4 长江计算机一级行业基金重仓持股的市值总和约 412.9 亿（2024Q4 为 326.2 亿，环 比提升约 86.8 亿），对应计算机持仓占比为 3.1%，环比 2024Q4 提升 0.6pct。近一年以来 (2024Q2~2025Q1)基金重仓配置计算机的比例直线上升，分季度分别为 1.8%、2.0%、2.5%、 3.1%，25Q1 重仓比例处于 2010 年以来的 42%分位值。值得注意地是，近一年计算机板块重 仓超配比例分别为-2.6%、-3.0%、-3.1%、-2.8%，25Q1 季度重仓超配比例反转向上。展望未 来，建议关注基本面有望率先迎来改善的赛道：云基础资源、国产算力、AI A ...