OPEC+ Strategy & Rationale - OPEC+ brought back 137,000 barrels a day to the market as expected but decided to hold off on further increases for the first three months of next year [1] - OPEC's rationale is based on monitoring the market and digesting customer demand [2] - The decision to hold off on further increases may be influenced by Russia's production capabilities due to sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil [3][4] Market Dynamics & Oversupply Concerns - The market is moving towards an oversupplied state, despite OPEC+ increasing output since earlier this year [5] - Chinese buying, which previously helped absorb increased output, may slow down going into 2026 [6] - US output has remained strong despite WTI being in the low $60 range [7][12] Chinese Demand & Economic Factors - Analysts are watching refinery run rates and teapot purchases to determine if Chinese demand is faltering [8] - Industrial output from China needs to be monitored to assess the overall Chinese economy [9] - EV sales in China are strong, suggesting that long-term gasoline demand may not grow as it has in the past [10] - China's industrial and economic growth has not met expectations, and has not significantly pushed up oil demand [11]

Core Viewpoint - The production of coke and steel in China showed a year-on-year increase in the first nine months of 2025, while the output of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline [1] Group 1: Coke Production - In the first nine months of 2025, the national coke production reached 37.716 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - In September 2025, the coke production was 4.256 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [1] - The average daily coke production in September was estimated at 1.42 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [1] Group 2: Pig Iron Production - The national pig iron production in the first nine months of 2025 totaled 64.586 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [1] - In September 2025, the pig iron production was 6.605 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year and 5.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [1] - The average daily pig iron production in September was estimated at 2.2 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.2% [1] Group 3: Crude Steel Production - The crude steel production in the first nine months of 2025 was 74.625 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.9% [1] - In September 2025, the crude steel production was 7.349 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.0%, continuing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month [1] - The average daily crude steel production in September was estimated at 2.45 million tons, indicating a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [1] Group 4: Steel Production - The total steel production in the first nine months of 2025 reached 110.385 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - In September 2025, the steel production was 12.421 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [1] - The average daily steel production in September was estimated at 4.14 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.5% [1]