CHINA BASIC MATERIALS MONITOR November 2025: more signs of weaker demand Summary: End-user orderbooks remained lack luster on the ground, notably sequential deterioration in whitegoods, renewables and construction, beyond seasonality. Infrastructure further weakened with project start rates at multi-year low level, mostly due to challenged fundings from local government. The decelerating momentum from the trade-in program, high commodity prices, may also contribute to weaker demand in others. Auto remained ...

23 November 2025 | 11:24PM HKT Economics Research CHINA DATA INSIGHTS Our Revamped Investment Tracker Shows Recent Plunge in Fixed Asset Investment Overstated The China Economics Team Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966- ...

Core Points - ArcelorMittal has cancelled 77,809,772 treasury shares, resulting in a total of 775,000,000 shares in issue [1] - The company retains approximately 14.4 million treasury shares for its Long-Term Incentive Plan commitments [1] - In 2024, ArcelorMittal generated revenues of $62.4 billion and produced 57.9 million metric tonnes of crude steel [3] Company Overview - ArcelorMittal is a leading integrated steel and mining company with operations in 60 countries and primary steelmaking in 14 countries [3] - It is the largest steel producer in Europe and has significant operations in the Americas and Asia [3] - The company aims to produce innovative steels that are energy-efficient, low in carbon emissions, and reusable, supporting renewable energy infrastructure [3]

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Steel Dynamics (STLD) . Shares have added about 0.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Steel Dynamics due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.Steel Dynamics’ Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on ...

Core Insights - Ecolomondo Corporation is experiencing a steady increase in production at its Hawkesbury TDP facility, processing more batches and achieving higher volumes of recovered carbon black (rCB) and oil [1][2][4] Production and Performance - The Hawkesbury TDP facility processed 109 batches in the first 10 months of 2025, with 30 batches completed in October alone, marking a significant increase compared to previous quarters [2] - The facility's production included 4 double batches in just 4 days, all conducted in automatic mode, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1][2] Revenue Streams - Revenue is generated from the sale of end-products such as rCB, oil, steel, syngas, and tipping fees for scrap tire disposal [4][10] - Despite the increase in production, the company continues to operate at a loss due to the facility still being in its ramp-up phase [4] Future Outlook - The company aims for full ramp-up of operations by July 2026, with new team additions to strengthen management and operations [9] - Growing demand for recovered resources, particularly rCB, is expected to support the company's growth trajectory [9][8] Environmental Impact - The TDP process significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions, with a 90% reduction in GHG emissions compared to virgin carbon black production [14] - The production at the Hawkesbury facility is projected to reduce CO2 emissions by 15,000 tons per year [14]

Core Insights - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) has seen a 2.1% increase in stock price, trading at $10.96, following a bounce off the $10 level, which coincides with the 126-day moving average that has historically captured several pullbacks [1] - The stock is currently up 16.2% for 2025 but remains significantly below its two-year high of $16.70 reached on October 20 [1] Short Interest - Short interest in Cleveland-Cliffs has decreased by 14% over the last two reporting periods, representing 10.9% of the stock's total available float [3] - At the average trading pace, it would take short sellers more than two days to cover these positions [3] Options Market - Options for Cleveland-Cliffs are currently considered affordable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 67%, placing it in the 20th percentile of annual readings [4] - The company tends to outperform options traders' volatility expectations, as indicated by a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 74 out of 100 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has seen a 25% decline in its share price over the last month, despite previous positive trade-policy news and expectations for a revival in automotive-steel demand [2][5]. Company-Specific Challenges - The decline in CLF's stock is attributed to a combination of company-specific challenges and broader economic headwinds, indicating a reassessment of risks rather than just opportunities [5]. - In Q3 2025, CLF reported revenues of approximately US$4.7 billion, down from US$4.9 billion in Q2, with an adjusted net loss of US$223 million, or US$0.45 per diluted share [9]. - The average net selling price per ton in the steel-making division was US$1,032 in Q3, a slight decline from US$1,045 a year prior, despite an increase in shipment volumes to 4.0 million net tons [9]. External Demand & Macroeconomic Risks - The steel industry is facing cyclical demand challenges across construction, manufacturing, and automotive sectors, along with competition from imports [9]. - Investor confidence is wavering due to the discrepancy between CLF's strategic vision and execution, as the company continues to operate at a loss and provides cautious guidance [9]. Strategic Initiatives - CLF is assessing the potential for rare-earth minerals at mining locations in Michigan and Minnesota and has a memorandum of understanding with a significant global steel producer, which could enhance growth if finalized [10]. - Approximately 30% of the steel-making revenues in Q3 came from the automotive sector, highlighting the importance of automotive recovery for CLF's performance [10]. Financial Stability & Liquidity Management - CLF concluded Q3 2025 with around US$3.1 billion in consolidated liquidity, which provides some safety amid ongoing losses and the cyclical nature of steel production [7][10]. - The company aims for cost reduction targets of approximately US$50 per ton compared to 2024, which are critical indicators to monitor for financial stability [10].

1-10月份，全国钢材产量121759万吨，同比增长4.7%。而10月份钢材产量同比下降0.9%、环比下降 4.5%，至11864万吨；据此测算，10月份钢材日均产量383万吨，环比下降7.6%。 1-10月份，全国生铁产量71137万吨，同比下降1.8%。10月份生铁产量为6555万吨，这是2024年3月份以 来最低单月水平，同环比分别下降7.9%和0.8%，环比连续第五月下降；当月生铁日均产量211万吨，环 比下降4.0%。 1-10月份，全国粗钢产量81787万吨，同比下降3.9%。10月份粗钢产量为7200万吨，同样是2024年3月份 以来最低单月水平，同环比分别下降12.1%和2.0%，环比连续第五月下降；10月份粗钢日均产量232万 吨，环比下降5.2%。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-10月份，全国焦炭和钢材产量同比继续增长，粗钢和生铁产量则呈降。 具体来看： 1-10月份，全国焦炭产量41905万吨，同比增长3.3%。10月份焦炭产量为4190万吨，同比增长1.5%，但 环比下降1.6%，为连续第二月环比下降；据此测算，10月份焦炭日均产量135万吨，环比下降4.7%。 ...

Core Insights - ArcelorMittal S.A. reported a third-quarter 2025 net income of $377 million, or 50 cents per share, an increase from $287 million, or 37 cents per share, in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings were 62 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents [1] - Total sales increased approximately 3% year over year to $15,657 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $14,711 million [1] Financial Performance - Total steel shipments rose 1.5% year over year to 13.6 million metric tons, beating the consensus estimate of 13.57 million metric tons [2] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $5,733 million, up from $5,443 million in the prior quarter, with net debt around $9.1 billion [6] Segment Performance - **North America**: Sales increased 20% year over year to $3,111 million, with crude steel production up 0.6% to 1,662 million metric tons and steel shipments rising 8.6% to 2,615 million metric tons, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2,555 million metric tons [2] - **Brazil**: Sales decreased 13% year over year to $2,807 million, with crude steel production down 6% to 3,595 million metric tons and shipments falling 6.8% to 3,530 million metric tons, missing the consensus estimate of 3,646 million metric tons [3] - **Europe**: Sales rose 0.6% year over year to $7,186 million, with crude steel production declining nearly 7.8% to 7,251 million metric tons, while shipments increased around 3% to 7,001 million metric tons, surpassing the consensus mark of 6,871 million metric tons [4] - **Mining**: Sales increased 24.3% year over year to $732 million, with iron ore production totaling 8.5 million metric tons, up 28.8% from the previous year [5] Future Outlook - The European Commission's new steel-sector trade tool and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to enhance fair competition and support industry capacity utilization [7] - The company remains optimistic about its medium- and long-term outlook, anticipating benefits from rising steel demand linked to energy transition, infrastructure development, and defense needs [8] - Recent M&A activities and high-return organic growth projects are expected to boost future EBITDA by $2.1 billion, including $0.7 billion in 2025 and $0.8 billion in 2026 [10] Market Performance - ArcelorMittal's shares have gained 57.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 14.3% decline in the industry [11]

Core Viewpoint - The data center boom is expected to significantly benefit commodities, with a particular focus on natural gas, base metals, precious metals, and crude oil as key areas of growth [1][5]. Commodities Overview - Commodities are seen as the most undervalued assets currently, with a bull market already underway, particularly in gold, which has increased by 54% year-to-date [2][4]. - The investment in AI is perceived as misdirected, with a need for more focus on the raw materials required for data centers, such as metals and gas [3][4]. Specific Commodities - **Natural Gas**: Essential for powering gas turbines in data centers [6]. - **Base Metals**: Includes steel and copper, which are critical for components like gas turbines and the energy grid [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Metals such as gold, silver, and palladium are utilized in data center components [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Provides power to data centers, with no major non-OPEC oil projects expected to start next year, potentially driving prices higher [6].