Key Takeaways The Government Shutdown Enters Week 2 This WeekWall Street Loves Gridlock in CongressOpenAI Invests in AMD GPUs, Comerica Bought by Fifth ThirdMonday, October 6, 2025It’s tough doing business in an environment of no compromise. We’d already seen evidence of this in difficult negotiations with some of our country’s biggest trading partners. Now we’re seeing it on Capitol Hill, with a government shutdown looking to advance into its second week. No pertinent phone calls are being made. Plenty of ...

Core Viewpoint - The American Dream is perceived as increasingly unattainable, with nearly 70% of respondents believing it "no longer holds true or never did," marking the highest level of skepticism in the survey's 15-year history [1] Group 1: Pessimism Across Demographics - The pessimism regarding the American Dream spans across political, class, and demographic lines, with similar views reported by men and women, young and old, and across income levels [2] - A significant political divide exists, with 55% of Republicans expressing negative views compared to 90% of Democrats [2] Group 2: Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Only 25% of respondents feel they have a good chance of improving their standard of living, a record low in the 38-year history of the study, and over 75% doubt life will improve for the next generation [4] - Despite the discontent, 44% of respondents felt positive about the economy, an increase from 38% in 2024 [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The median home price has increased by 532% from $63,900 in 1979 to $403,800 in 2025 [5] - Wages for middle-income earners have only grown by 6% since 1979 [5] - The wage gap has widened, with CEOs now earning 296 times what a typical worker makes, up from 30 times in 1979 [5] - Inflation rates have been significant, with rates of 7% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022 impacting household budgets [5] - The consumer price index indicates inflation at 2.7% [5] - Americans have reached record credit card debt levels of $1.21 trillion in 2024 [5] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3% as of August 2025, which is considered a healthy level [5]

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by +0.3% month over month, which is in line with expectations and 20 basis points higher than the previous month [2] - Year-over-year CPI rose to +2.7%, marking a +30 basis points increase from the previous month, the highest since February [3] - Core CPI year over year reached +2.9%, up 10 basis points month over month and 10 basis points below estimates [3] Manufacturing and Economic Sentiment - The Empire State Index for July improved to +5.5 points, significantly better than the expected -9.0 and the previous month's -16.0, indicating a positive shift in manufacturing sentiment [5] Banking Sector Performance - JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 earnings of $4.96 per share, exceeding estimates by +10% and revenues of $44.91 billion, which surpassed estimates by +2.5% [7] - Citigroup's Q2 earnings were $1.96 per share, surpassing the consensus of $1.61, with revenues of $21.67 billion beating expectations of $20.98 billion [8] - Wells Fargo posted Q2 earnings of $1.54 per share, exceeding projections of $1.41, with revenues of $20.82 billion, showing a modest surprise of +0.57% [9]

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by +0.3% month over month, which is warmer than the previous month's +0.1% [2] - Year-over-year CPI rose to +2.7%, marking a +30 basis points increase from the previous month and the highest level since February [3] - Core CPI year over year reached +2.9%, up 10 basis points month over month, but still 10 basis points below estimates [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The current interest rate remains between +4.25-4.50%, unchanged since December, but a potential change in leadership at the Federal Reserve could lead to a more dovish stance on interest rates [4] Manufacturing and Economic Growth - The Empire State Index for July improved to +5.5 points, significantly better than the expected -9.0 and the previous month's -16.0, indicating a positive shift in manufacturing sentiment [5] Banking Sector Performance - JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 earnings of $4.96 per share, exceeding estimates by +10% and revenues of $44.91 billion, which surpassed estimates by +2.5% [7] - Citigroup's Q2 earnings were $1.96 per share, beating the consensus of $1.61, with revenues of $21.67 billion also exceeding expectations [8] - Wells Fargo reported Q2 earnings of $1.54 per share, surpassing projections of $1.41, although net interest income fell short of estimates [8]

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are lower across all major indexes due to new tariff threats from President Trump, which have dampened market enthusiasm after reaching near record highs last week [1][2] - Trump announced a new +35% tariff on all Canadian imports and a +30% tariff on both the EU and Mexico, effective if no new trade deals are reached by August 1st [2] Tariff Impact - Over $99 billion in revenues have been collected from tariff policies, marking an increase of more than +110% from the previous year [3] - Economists express concerns that higher tariffs could lead to increased prices for consumers as companies pass on costs to maintain profitability [3] Trade Deal Status - The U.S. has not established new trade deals, with only an incomplete agreement with the UK and a preliminary deal with China regarding rare earth materials [4][5] - The 90-day window for establishing new trade policies has closed without resolution, raising questions about the potential for further delays [5] Economic Data Releases - This week will see significant economic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), with CPI expected to rise to +2.7% from +2.4% [6] - Other economic reports include Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing reports, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Homebuilder Confidence, and Housing Starts/Building Permits [7] Earnings Reports - Major banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report earnings on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs later in the week [8] - Other companies reporting include Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and 3M, contributing to a busy earnings week [8]

Inflation Rate - Kenya's annual inflation rate remained unchanged in June [1] - Slower growth in utilities and housing prices contributed to the flatlined inflation rate [1]