Core Insights - Zai Lab is a global biopharmaceutical company with a focus on oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and infectious diseases, currently having seven products approved in China [1][2] - The company expects significant revenue growth, projecting total revenue to reach US$2.0 billion by 2028, driven by the sales ramp-up of existing products and the approval of new products [1][2] Group 1: Product Portfolio and Revenue Growth - Zai Lab's first commercial product, ZEJULA, was approved in China in 2019, and the company currently has seven commercialized products [1] - In 2024, the company's total revenue is projected to be US$399 million, representing a 50% year-over-year increase, primarily due to the sales ramp-up of new products like VYVGART and NUZYRA [1] - Efgartigimod, an FcRn antagonist, is expected to become a blockbuster product, with domestic sales reaching US$94 million in 2024, an increase of 835% year-over-year [2] Group 2: Pipeline Development and Future Prospects - The company is actively expanding its product pipeline, focusing on areas such as antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and bispecific antibodies (biAbs), with several products granted Fast Track Designation by the FDA [2] - ZL-1310 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with plans to initiate a global pivotal trial in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company anticipates filing at least one new IND application annually, indicating a robust pipeline development strategy [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve non-GAAP operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue estimates of US$553 million in 2025, US$802 million in 2026, and US$1.203 billion in 2027 [3] - A net loss of US$134 million is expected in 2025, transitioning to a net profit of US$15 million in 2026 and US$173 million in 2027 [3] - The target price derived from DCF valuation is HK$35.2, indicating a 39% upside potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sino Biopharm is undergoing a significant transformation focused on innovation, with a robust pipeline in key therapeutic areas and strong financial support from biosimilars and generics [1][2] Group 1: Innovation and R&D - Sino Biopharm has increased its R&D investment to 17.6% of total revenue in 2024, up from 9.9% in 2019 [1] - By the end of 2024, 17 innovative drugs, including biosimilars, are expected to contribute 42% of total revenue, compared to only 11% in 2015 [1] - The company has completed more than 3 deals on average annually from 2019 to 2024 to enhance its innovative pipeline [1] Group 2: Key Therapeutic Areas - The company focuses on four core therapeutic areas: oncology, liver/metabolism, respiratory, and surgery/analgesia [1][2] - In oncology, Anlotinib has 9 approved indications and 4 under review, with potential for first-line treatment combinations [3] - The PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 is positioned as a potential blockbuster for COPD and is a candidate for overseas licensing [4] Group 3: Sales and Market Performance - The combined sample-hospital market size for seven approved biosimilars reached RMB24 billion in 2024, with rapid sales expected, particularly for pertuzumab [4] - The generics business has shown resilience, with revenue growth of 3.1% YoY in 2024, despite policy shifts in China [4] - The impact of volume-based procurement has been minimized, with only 1% of total revenue affected in 2024 [4] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is initiated with a BUY rating and a target price of HK$9.40, forecasting revenue growth of 11.4%/10.5%/9.6% YoY for 2025E/2026E/2027E [5] - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow by 12.2%/11.5%/10.5% YoY for the same periods [5] - The target price implies a 37x 2026E adjusted P/E based on a 10-year DCF model [5]