Joining us this morning with some reaction. First from the White House is the National Economic Council Director Kevin Asset. Kevin, good morning.Good to have you. >> Great to be here. >> Uh, lot of information uh that the streets trying to absorb.How do you characterize both October and November. >> Yeah, I think it's best to sort of combine the two. And if you do that, then you're looking at private sector gains of about 120,000, maybe 121.And then uh we dropped about 160,000 government workers, federal g ...

The dollar edged lower ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision.It reverses some of its gains in recent days, which reflected expectations that the Fed could reduce interest rates but be cautious about prospects of further cuts in the coming months.Fed policymakers are likely to be cautious as this will mark the third consecutive rate reduction, but any boost to the dollar could be limited, ING's Chris Turner said. ...

The views of the San Francisco Fed president are significant because she has rarely deviated publicly from the position of Chair Jerome Powell. ...

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a critical moment, with concerns over a government shutdown and recession fears juxtaposed against AI-driven growth propelling major indices to record highs [1] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports from major banks will serve as a vital indicator of the U.S. economy's health and influence the trajectory of Bank exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [2] Banking Sector Fundamentals - Key factors influencing bank profitability include loan demand and asset quality, shaped by interest rates and economic anxieties [3] - The Federal Reserve's latest report indicates a robust loan growth, with "Loans and Leases in bank credit" increasing at an annual rate of 5.2% in August and 6.1% in July [4] - The Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loan segment showed significant growth, with an annual rate of 13.3% in July, down to 4.5% in August, but still strong compared to the previous quarter [5] Asset Quality Concerns - While a moderate stabilization in asset quality is expected, there are concerns regarding consumer loans and commercial real estate, with investors watching for increases in net charge-offs and loan loss provisions [6] Investment Banking and Market Activity - A rebound in investment banking has led to increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, which are anticipated to enhance the profitability of major banks [7] - Growth in capital markets activity, driven by more initial public offerings (IPOs) and debt issuance, is expected to act as a catalyst for banking companies [7] Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction in September may impact the net interest margin for major banks, but effective management of deposit costs and lending yields could mitigate negative effects [8] Earnings Expectations - The total third-quarter earnings for the banking sector are projected to rise by 10.7% with a 6.1% increase in revenues [9] - Specific earnings expectations for major banks include: - JPMorgan Chase & Co.: $4.83 per share on $44.86 billion in revenues, with year-over-year growth of 10.5% and 5.2% respectively [9] - Citigroup Inc.: $1.91 per share on $21.01 billion in revenues, with year-over-year growth of 26.5% and 3.4% respectively [10] - Goldman Sachs Group: $10.93 per share on $13.99 billion in revenues, with year-over-year growth of 30.1% and 10.2% respectively [10] - Wells Fargo & Company: $1.54 per share on $21.17 billion in revenues, with year-over-year growth of 1.3% and 4% respectively [10] - Bank of America: $0.94 per share on $27.12 billion in revenues, with year-over-year growth of 16.1% and 7% respectively [11] - Morgan Stanley: $2.07 per share on $16.25 billion in revenues, with year-over-year growth of 10.1% and 5.6% respectively [11] Overall Sector Outlook - The banking sector appears moderately sound, facing challenges such as interest margin pressure and asset quality concerns, but recent lending and investment banking rebounds suggest a stabilized growth trend for major Financial ETFs [12]

Core Viewpoint - The government shutdown has halted the release of economic data, which is crucial for addressing complex trade-offs in economic management [1] Group 1 - The pause in economic data releases may lead to uncertainty in decision-making regarding economic policies [1] - The shutdown impacts the ability to analyze and respond to economic conditions effectively [1]

Market Performance - Financial markets reached new all-time highs despite the Federal Government shutdown, with the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell 2000 closing at record highs on October 3rd, and the Nasdaq achieving a record high on October 2nd [1] - Weekly gains for the four major indexes ranged between 1% and 2%, with year-to-date advances showing double-digit growth for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, while the DJIA is close at 9.91% [1] Economic Indicators - The current government shutdown has occurred amidst signs of an economic slowdown, with rising delinquencies in credit card, auto loans, and mortgages [6][11] - The Pending Home Sales index dropped to 74.7 in September, lower than the first month of both the 2001 and 2008 recessions [7] - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators have declined for 17 consecutive months, indicating a weakening labor market [8] Labor Market Trends - The ADP monthly jobs report showed a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly missing the market consensus of a gain of 51,000 jobs [7] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indicates a continued decline in job openings, approaching levels seen during the 2020-2021 labor market softness [7] - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September from 97.8 in August, indicating a significant drop in consumer sentiment [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [9] - A 25-basis point rate reduction is anticipated in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings, with the possibility of a steeper reduction if economic conditions worsen [9][12] - The Fed is expected to respond to the deteriorating economic indicators by lowering interest rates over the next few months [12]

Core Viewpoint - Thor Industries is positioned for growth in the recreational vehicle market, supported by favorable economic conditions and strong financial performance [2][3][4]. Company Overview - Thor Industries is a leading manufacturer of recreational vehicles (RVs) and campers, competing with major players like Winnebago Industries and Forest River [1]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $5.62 billion and has seen its stock fluctuate between $63.16 and $118.85 over the past year [5]. Financial Performance - BMO Capital has maintained an "Outperform" rating for Thor Industries, raising the price target from $105 to $115, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [2][6]. - Thor Industries is expected to achieve new stock price highs by early 2026, aided by a projected reduction in interest rates by the Federal Open Market Committee [3]. - The company benefits from strong cash flow and asset growth, which supports significant capital returns through dividends and share repurchases, yielding about 2.25% annually [4][6]. Market Conditions - The anticipated reduction in interest rates by 75 basis points over the next two to three quarters is expected to boost demand for discretionary items like RVs, positively impacting Thor Industries [3][6].

Core Insights - Gold prices are experiencing a significant surge, with the spot price reaching $3,656 per ounce as of September 15, marking a 41.8% increase for the year and a rise of $1,600 since the beginning of 2023 [1] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could escalate to $5,000 if investors move away from traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds amid a potential recession [1] - The price target for gold by the end of 2025 is estimated at around $3,750, contingent on a reduction in interest rates [1] Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to create favorable conditions for gold buying, similar to previous instances in 2008, 2020, and August 2024 [3] - The increasing U.S. government debt is causing instability in safe-haven asset markets, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - The U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, including significant deficit spending and public debt, are leading to the creation of more U.S. dollars, which is depreciating the dollar and driving up the prices of hard assets like gold [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite elevated interest rates, gold prices have risen, indicating a breakdown in the traditional correlation between gold and real interest rates, suggesting a structural shift in capital allocation and risk perception [6]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap tech markets are experiencing significant growth potential driven by interest rate outlook and business demand trends, with specific stocks poised for substantial price increases [1]. Group 1: Airship AI - Airship AI's stock has shown volatility since its late 2023 IPO, with a current price of $5.19 and a price target of $6.00, indicating potential for growth [3][4]. - The company operates a cloud-native platform that leverages dark data for critical information extraction, targeting institutions and law enforcement [3]. - Recent market activity includes purchases by major institutions like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, despite only 5% institutional ownership [4]. - A 20% share price increase in early September confirmed support at a critical trading range, suggesting a potential rise above resistance at $6.60, which represents over 100% upside from this target [5][6]. Group 2: Amprius Technologies - Amprius Technologies is currently priced at $8.36 with a price target of $11.71, driven by ramping capacity and demand for its next-gen silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries [8]. - The company is positioned for hypergrowth, particularly in aerospace and drones, while also diversifying into new markets [9]. - Analysts show a bullish sentiment with a unanimous Buy rating from nine analysts and a price target suggesting a 45% upside, potentially reaching the $18 range [10]. - The stock increased by 15% in early September, indicating strong market support and a bullish triangle pattern, with expectations to rise above $10.50 [11]. Group 3: SoundHound AI - SoundHound AI's stock is currently at $14.95 with a price target of $14.36, reflecting accelerating hyper-growth driven by demand for voice-to-meaning technology [13]. - The company is expanding its client base and deals, indicating strong growth potential in 2025 [13]. - Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating for SoundHound, with increasing coverage and a positive revision trend leading to higher price targets [14]. - The stock has shown strong support since April, with rising volume and positive indicators suggesting further upward movement [15].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic in September 2024, with additional cuts expected through the remainder of the year [1] - Investors and macro observers should prepare for timely analysis of earnings and macro-related events, particularly in the retail and real estate sectors [1]