Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply - demand of domestic styrene is expected to remain in tight balance, and the visible inventory may maintain a downward trend. The non - integrated device losses decrease, and the integrated device profit is relatively considerable. In the short term, there are no news of large - scale device shutdown or restart, so the domestic styrene output and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little. The downstream EPS maintains low - level operation due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the PS device operation rate is expected to continue to increase, and the ABS pre - sale performance is good with the operation rate expected to increase slightly. The short - term EB2602 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily range expected to be around 6,650 - 6,850 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 6,781 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the trading volume is 328,179, down 121,936; the long position of the top 20 holders is 336,085 hands, down 45 hands; the short position of the top 20 holders is 370,539 hands, up 1,635 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 34,454 hands, down 1,680 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 757 hands, down 600 hands; the closing price of the January contract is 6,700 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6,728 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the FOB South Korea intermediate price is 841.5 US dollars/ton, up 12.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price is 851.5 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; the mainstream price in Northeast China is 6,525 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in South China is 6,965 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the mainstream price in North China is 6,640 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in East China is 6,810 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 746 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 726 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 676 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price is 408 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is 280 cents/gallon, up 1 cent; the CIF Taiwan price is 661.17 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 739 US dollars/ton; the South China market price is 5,300 yuan/ton; the East China market price is 5,360 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the North China market price is 5,170 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 70.7%, up 1.57 percentage points; the national styrene inventory is 171,760 tons, up 800 tons; the total East China main port inventory is 13.88 tons, down 0.05 tons; the East China main port trade inventory is 8.33 tons, down 0.12 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS is 52.56%, up 0.75 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS is 69.4%, down 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of PS is 58.6%, up 4.1 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR is 38%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber is 79.38%, up 0.15 percentage points [2] Industry News - From December 19th to 25th, styrene output increased by 2.25% month - on - month to 354,600 tons, and capacity utilization increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 70.70%. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 2.79% month - on - month to 269,100 tons. As of December 25th, the styrene factory inventory increased by 0.47% month - on - month to 171,800 tons; as of December 29th, the East China port inventory decreased by 0.36% month - on - month to 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 70% month - on - month to 18,700 tons. As of December 24th, the non - integrated profit increased to - 177 yuan/ton compared with last week; as of December 26th, the integrated profit was 627.63 yuan/ton [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: ITG Guomao Futures Data Daily - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Huang Xianglan - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021658 - Qualification Number: F03110419 1. Core Viewpoints - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics [8]. - US soybean exports are weak, and there is no obvious hype driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - strong and far - weak [8]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, but recent downstream transactions are normal, and提货 performance is good [8]. 2. Industry Data Summaries 2.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on December 26, 2025: Dalian was 390 with a rise of 10; in different regions such as Rizhao (330, +10), Tianjin (350, +10), Zhangjiagang (340, - 500), Dongguan (290, - 10), Zhanjiang (310, - 30), and Fangcheng (310, - 10) [4]. - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 76, down 32 [4]. 2.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spot spread in the market was 399, down 9; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 559, up 12 [5]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 68, down 16; the M3 - M5 spread and M1 - RM1 spread data were also presented [4][5]. 2.3 Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of the 25/26 Brazilian new crop is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [7]. - According to BAGE, as of December 3, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7% [7]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and the de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. The现货 supply pressure is still large, and it is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January [8]. 2.4 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal, with good提货 performance [8]. 2.5 Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9815, with no change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 150 cents per bushel, and the domestic import soybean spot crushing profit was 90 yuan per ton [5]. - The domestic soybean auction had a high premium, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction situations [7].

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net revenue for Q3 increased by 7% to $2.6 billion on both a reported and constant currency basis [27] - Comparable sales rose by 2% [27] - Gross profit for Q3 was $1.43 billion, representing 55.6% of net revenue, down from 58.5% in Q3 2024 [29] - Net income for the quarter was $307 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, compared to $2.87 for the third quarter of 2024 [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, total revenue declined by 2%, with the U.S. down 3% and Canada down 1% [11] - International revenue increased by 33%, driven by a 46% growth in China Mainland [11][28] - Men's revenue increased by 8%, women's revenue increased by 6%, and accessories and other grew by 12% [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - China Mainland revenue increased by 46%, with comparable sales up by 25% [28] - The rest of the world segment saw revenue grow by 19% on a reported and constant currency basis, with comparable sales increasing by 9% [28] - The company ended the quarter with 796 stores globally, with square footage increasing by 12% [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three pillars: product creation, product activation, and enterprise efficiency to drive improvement in the U.S. business [19][26] - Plans to increase new style penetration to 35% in Spring 2026, with a strong pipeline of innovation [20][22] - The company aims to enhance the in-store experience and improve digital engagement to better connect with high-value guests [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a slowing trend in demand post-Thanksgiving, which has been factored into Q4 guidance [41] - The company expects revenue growth in Q4 to be below Q3 trends due to calendar shifts [12][33] - Management expressed confidence in the leadership team and the action plan to drive future growth [9][10] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with $1 billion in cash and no debt, allowing for continued investment in growth initiatives [27] - The leadership transition is underway, with Calvin McDonald stepping down as CEO and Marty Morfitt serving as Executive Chair [5][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the cadence of demand in the U.S. during Q3? - The quarter progressed as expected, with August being the best month and October the softest, aligning with prior expectations [41] Question: What are the implications of the product assortment changes for operating margins? - There will be puts and takes for operating margins, with a focus on expense savings and efficiencies [42] Question: How did the segments perform this quarter? - The company held share in premium athletic but lost some share in performance apparel due to changing guest behavior [44] Question: How much of the new product pipeline is informed by customer research? - The product innovation process is driven by research focused on unmet needs across various activity categories [47] Question: Can you discuss the performance of the China business? - The company continues to see strong momentum in China, with good performance across all tier cities [60]

Core Viewpoint - Nike, Inc. stock has seen an increase as investors express optimism regarding the company's product pipeline and demand signals across key channels [1] Product Strategy and Market Focus - Nike is expanding its consumer base to include value-focused shoppers on Amazon, aiming to regain market momentum [1][7] - The Amazon storefront is designed to target consumers who were previously underserved, with a focus on footwear priced below $100 [7] Financial Outlook - The company is set to release its second-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on December 18 [1] - Analyst Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America Securities maintains a Buy rating with a price forecast of $84 [2] Revenue and Sales Expectations - Hutchinson emphasizes that the third-quarter revenue outlook will be crucial, noting that Nike has been reducing excess inventory and enhancing product innovation [3] - The analyst anticipates that these efforts will lead to improved sales starting in the third quarter, supported by wholesale deliveries and early World Cup demand [3] Challenges and Risks - Ongoing pressure from weaker direct-to-consumer traffic due to fewer promotions is noted, along with headwinds from last year's heavy off-price mix affecting wholesale trends [4] - Hutchinson models slightly negative constant-currency sales in the second quarter, with expectations of steady improvement thereafter [6] Margin Considerations - The gross-margin outlook remains a significant topic for investors, with potential for modest margin expansion despite concerns over tariff pressures in the second half [6][5] - Stronger sales messaging and clean inventory are expected to signal a healthy recovery, although recoveries are rarely linear [5] Regional Performance - The recovery in Greater China is anticipated to be slow, with pressure expected to continue through fiscal 2026 [8] - Digital channels in Greater China remain highly promotional, with deep discounting affecting sales [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for Q3 2025 were $752.4 million, down 3.2% year over year, with comparable sales down 2.4%, reflecting a 260 basis points sequential improvement from Q2 [5][20] - Adjusted operating income for the quarter was $46.5 million, an increase of nearly $3 million from the previous year, despite last year's Q3 including a $9 million benefit from an incentive accrual reversal [6][23] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.38, up from $0.27 in the prior year [6][24] - Gross margin improved by 210 basis points to 45.1%, driven by fewer markdowns and improved fulfillment operations [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. retail comparable sales decreased by 1.5%, with total sales down 1% year over year, showing improvement from Q2 where both metrics were down roughly 5% [7][20] - Canadian retail total sales were down 8%, with comparable sales down 6.6%, primarily due to unseasonable warm weather affecting seasonal product demand [11][20] - The brand portfolio segment saw total sales down 9%, largely due to temporary sourcing-related delivery delays, but operating income increased by $500,000 year over year [12][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The top eight brands in the retail segment posted a positive 4% comparable sales growth for the quarter, with their penetration expanding by 200 basis points year over year to 42% of total sales [9] - The athletic category showed improvement, with adult athletic sales up 1% and kids' athletic sales up 8%, reflecting strong back-to-school performance [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on two pillars: customer and product, aiming to enhance private label offerings and build a more profitable wholesale model [13] - The "Let Us Surprise You" campaign is being executed with a holiday-centric approach to position DSW as a gifting destination [13][14] - The company is refining its assortment, ending the quarter with approximately 30% lower choice counts compared to last year while maintaining high in-stock levels [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about closing the year strongly, citing the dedication of teams and the effectiveness of strategic actions [19][32] - The company expects total net sales for the year to decline in the range of 3%-5%, with adjusted operating income projected between $50 million and $55 million [25] Other Important Information - The company paid down $47 million of debt during the quarter, ending with total debt outstanding of $469.8 million [6][24] - Total liquidity at the end of Q3 was $218.3 million, providing solid financial flexibility [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the trends quarter to date and the wide range for Q4 sales guidance? - Management noted that October was the strongest month, with continued momentum in key categories and brands, particularly in boots and affordable luxury [27][28] Question: How is the company thinking about gross margin in Q4 and the promotional environment? - Management is encouraged by gross margin management, anticipating similar improvements in Q4, with a focus on higher average unit retail prices and reduced unprofitable promotions [30]

Core Insights - The US PC market experienced a 1% year-on-year decline in shipments in Q3 2025, totaling 17.7 million units, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline [1] - The consumer segment showed resilience with an 8% growth in Q3, reaching 7.6 million units, while the education and government segments faced a significant 23% drop [1][2] - Despite the overall decline, the outlook for the holiday season remains positive, with a projected 4% growth in total shipments for 2025 [1] Segment Analysis - **Consumer Segment**: - Grew by 8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, marking the strongest performance of the year [4] - Forecasted to decline in Q4 2025 due to deteriorating consumer sentiment driven by inflation and rising interest rates [4] - **Commercial Segment**: - Remained stable with a decline of just under 1% in Q3 [1] - Expected to return to growth in Q4, supported by the transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11 [3] - **Education and Government Segments**: - Experienced a 23% decline in Q3, attributed to reduced government funding and layoffs [2] - Both segments have shown a pattern of continual decline after a strong start in Q1 2025 [2] Shipment Forecasts - Total US PC shipments are projected to reach 71.662 million units in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 3.5% [5] - Breakdown of shipments by segment for 2025: - Consumer: 26.809 million units, 1.9% growth - Commercial: 31.545 million units, 7.1% growth - Government: 3.946 million units, 2.9% growth - Education: 9.362 million units, -2.4% decline [5] Vendor Performance - In Q3 2025, HP led the market with 4.326 million units shipped, holding a 24.4% market share, followed by Dell and Lenovo [7] - Apple showed significant growth with a 12.4% increase in shipments year-on-year [7] - Overall, total shipments in Q3 2025 decreased by 1% compared to Q3 2024 [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $331.3 million for Q3, an increase of 2.2% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth at 2.2% [14][15] - Gross margin improved by 100 basis points to 32.8% compared to Q3 last year, driven by better product margins and lower freight expenses [15] - Adjusted net income for Q3 was $3 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to $1.4 million, or $0.04 per diluted share in the same quarter last year [16] - Adjusted EBITDA grew 13% to $18.6 million, reflecting a 50 basis point improvement as a percentage of net sales [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The hunting and shooting sports department saw a 5.3% increase in sales, while fishing grew by 14.1% [14][15] - Apparel sales increased by 1.4%, but camping sales declined by high single digits, indicating challenges in that category [34][35] - E-commerce sales grew by 8%, with both ship-to-home and buy online pick up in store performing well [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a slowdown in sales trends starting mid-October, attributed to external disruptions from a prolonged government shutdown impacting consumer confidence [11][12] - The promotional retail landscape remains competitive, necessitating increased marketing efforts to drive sales [19][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation strategy that emphasizes inventory precision, local relevance, and personal protection categories [8][9] - Plans for 2026 include a customer acquisition strategy aimed at reducing reliance on promotions and shifting towards sustainable, profitable growth [10][21] - The company opened a new store in Surprise, Arizona, reflecting a disciplined growth approach and targeting long-term returns [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding Q4 due to macroeconomic headwinds and a pressured U.S. consumer, leading to a revision of full-year guidance [19][21] - Despite challenges, management remains confident in achieving lower inventory levels and positive free cash flow by year-end [12][19] Other Important Information - Total inventory at the end of Q3 was $424 million, a decrease of 3.2% year-over-year, with expectations to end the year with inventory less than $330 million [17][18] - The company paid down $13.2 million of debt during the quarter, ending with a total debt balance of $181.9 million [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent sales trends during Black Friday and Cyber Monday - Management noted that sales trends remained negative through November, with no significant improvement post-government shutdown [24] Question: Margin management strategies for Q4 - The company plans to use existing inventory to drive sales while managing working capital effectively [25] Question: Impact of Florida Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday - Management indicated that the holiday did not significantly impact their business [27] Question: Marketing spend in a challenging consumer environment - Increased marketing spend is necessary to remain competitive in a highly promotional landscape [32] Question: Camping department performance and future strategies - Camping sales were down high single digits, with inventory trends being managed closely [34][35] Question: Promotional strategies for Black Friday - The company was promotional but did not implement traditional doorbusters, adjusting strategies for December [40] Question: Inventory management by category - The company is focusing on driving sales in the hunting and shooting category, which is a significant traffic driver [43] Question: Margin profile of personal protection products - Personal protection products are accretive to margins, with a focus on expanding offerings [46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $331.3 million for Q3 2025, an increase of 2.2% compared to the prior year [12] - Gross margin improved to 32.8%, a 100 basis point increase year-over-year, driven by better product margins and lower freight expenses [13][14] - Adjusted net income for Q3 was $3 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to $1.4 million, or $0.04 per diluted share in the same quarter last year [15] - Adjusted EBITDA grew 13% to $18.6 million, improving by 50 basis points as a percentage of net sales [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store sales grew 2.2% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive growth [12] - Hunting and shooting sports increased by 5%, while fishing saw exceptional growth of 14% [12][6] - Apparel sales grew by 1.5%, but camping sales declined due to its discretionary nature [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce sales grew by 8% in the quarter, with strong performance in ship-to-home and buy online pick up in store [6] - The company experienced a slowdown in sales trends starting mid-October, attributed to external disruptions from a prolonged government shutdown [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation strategy that emphasizes inventory precision, local relevance, and personal protection [7][8] - Plans to open only one new store in 2025 and 2026, reflecting a disciplined growth approach [9] - The company aims to enhance customer acquisition strategies and reduce reliance on promotions for sustainable growth [9][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding Q4 due to macroeconomic headwinds and a pressured U.S. consumer [10][11] - The company anticipates modest sales growth for the full year despite challenges, with a focus on maintaining lower inventory and positive free cash flow [11][19] - Full-year guidance for net sales has been adjusted to be flat to slightly up, reflecting a tough Q4 environment [19] Other Important Information - Total inventory at the end of Q3 was $424 million, a decrease of 3.2% year-over-year [16] - The company paid down $13.2 million of debt during the quarter, ending with a total debt balance of $181.9 million [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent sales trends during Black Friday and Cyber Monday - Management noted that negative sales trends persisted through November, with no significant improvement post-government shutdown [23] Question: Margin management strategies for Q4 - The company plans to use existing inventory to drive sales while managing working capital, aiming to avoid carrying aged inventory into 2026 [24] Question: Impact of Florida Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday - Management indicated that the holiday did not significantly impact their business as it is not a major market for them [26] Question: Marketing spend in a challenging consumer environment - The company believes increased marketing is necessary to remain competitive, focusing on digital marketing and promotions [30] Question: Performance of the camping department - Camping sales were down high single digits, with inventory trends below sales trends, indicating an area for improvement [32][33] Question: Promotional environment during Black Friday - Management confirmed they were promotional but did not implement traditional doorbusters, adjusting strategy for December to drive foot traffic [38][39] Question: Inventory management by category - The company is focusing on driving sales in the hunting and shooting category, which is a significant traffic driver [42] Question: Margin profile of personal protection products - Personal protection products are performing well and are accretive to margins, attracting a different customer base [44]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2026 was CAD 2.3 billion, a 14% increase compared to the previous year, driven by stronger ORV shipments, partially offset by lower snowmobile deliveries [11][3] - Normalized EBITDA grew 21% to CAD 326 million, and normalized EPS rose 33% to CAD 1.59 [11][3] - Free cash flow from continued operations was CAD 320 million, with cash on hand at CAD 250 million [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ORV revenue increased by 22% to CAD 1.3 billion, with side-by-side retail up in high single digits, outperforming the industry [6][3] - Seasonal products revenue decreased by 2% to CAD 606 million due to planned reductions in snowmobile shipments [8][3] - Parts, accessories, and apparel revenue rose 18% to CAD 379 million, reflecting higher sales volumes as dealers replenished inventory [10][3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American retail sales decreased by 4%, with a 1% decline excluding snowmobiles, while Latin America saw a 13% increase in retail sales [4][3] - EMEA markets experienced a 4% decline in retail, and Asia-Pacific saw an 11% decrease [4][3] - Demand remained stronger for high-end products compared to entry-level models, which is favorable for the company’s new high-end model introductions [4][3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined execution and operational efficiency, with a strategic plan aiming for CAD 9.5 billion in revenue and CAD 8 in normalized EPS by the end of fiscal 2028 [16][17] - The company plans to enhance capital returns to shareholders by reactivating its share buyback program, allowing for the repurchase of up to 3.1 million shares over the next 12 months [12][3] - The company is well-positioned to capture demand upside as market conditions improve, supported by a strong product lineup and healthy network inventory levels [14][3] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving higher guidance for fiscal 2026, expecting approximately CAD 8.3 billion in revenue and CAD 5 in normalized EPS for the year [15][3] - The company anticipates a flat industry for ORV retail in the next 12 months, with expectations for improved dealer sentiment and strong product introductions [37][3] - Management noted that the promotional environment remains elevated, particularly for entry-level models, but high-end products are performing well [36][3] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced network inventory by 17% year-over-year, positioning dealers to take on new products as production ramps up [13][3] - The company is in the process of selling its marine business, with expected cash inflow of around CAD 200 million from the sale of Telwater, pending regulatory approval [81][3] - The company is actively monitoring macroeconomic conditions and tariff negotiations, focusing on supporting the industry and adapting to changes [41][3] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on ORV market share and inventory dynamics - Management noted strong engagement from dealers and positive retail trends for new models, with gains in current inventory but losses in non-current inventory as planned [20][21] Question: Dealer appetite for inventory investment - Management indicated that dealers are more willing to take on new models due to reduced inventory and strong product offerings, with good engagement observed [28][29] Question: Impact of promotional environment on sales - Management acknowledged that while the industry remains promotional, their sales programs are trending lower than the previous year, contributing to better performance [53][11] Question: Expectations for snowmobile market and inventory levels - Management expects to clear older models by the end of the snowmobile season, with a good start to the season and plans to realign inventory levels [49][50] Question: Future CapEx and investment plans - Management confirmed a focus on responsible CapEx spending, with expectations of around CAD 420 million for the next year, primarily for product and technology investments [83][3]