Summary of Semiconductor Distributor Survey 3Q'25 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Region**: North America - **Survey Date**: September 2025 - October 2025 - **Participants**: 42 semiconductor distributors Key Insights General Performance and Expectations - Distributor survey responses showed a polarized outlook for December quarter (DecQ) performance, indicating mixed sentiment but no significant decline in recovery [2][42] - Long-term visibility for the semiconductor industry is expected to improve over several quarters, but immediate results for September quarter (SepQ) are anticipated to be strong [2][3] SepQ Performance - Strong performance is expected for SepQ, with analog products shipping in line with demand, while microcontroller units (MCU) are still undershipping by 6.8% [3][15] - The recovery in MCU has been slower, with a tepid overall rate of change since last year [3][15] - Expectations for SepQ earnings have been reset to a more conservative outlook, reflecting a significant adjustment from previous quarters [5][8] DecQ Outlook - The outlook for DecQ is mixed, with expectations for growth and decline both increasing among respondents [4][42] - For analog products, expectations for growth increased by 19 percentage points to 60%, while those expecting a decline rose to 19% [42] - For MCU, growth expectations increased by 6 percentage points to 46%, with declines also rising to 17% [42] Inventory and Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply constraints have increased from 40% to 45%, with analog supply constraints rising from 14% to 24% [42][62] - Shortages in select SKUs have been reported, contributing to the mixed responses from distributors [26][42] - Expedited ordering has significantly increased from 29% to 45%, indicating a shift towards short-term ordering patterns due to macroeconomic uncertainties [42][58] Inventory Management - Inventory destocking is slowing, with 55% of distributors looking to deplete inventory, down from 60% [42][60] - Lead times for suppliers have remained stable, with a slight decrease in the percentage of distributors expecting lead times to increase [42][62] Market Segmentation - Certain end markets, such as industrial and consumer, are recovering faster, while the automotive sector is still working through inventory digestion [11][42] - The overall sentiment reflects a cautious optimism, with a preference for stocks with defensive characteristics, such as ADI and NXP, while being cautious on TXN due to potential utilization pressures [10][11] Additional Observations - The survey indicates a potential for an inventory replenishment cycle, which could positively impact SepQ and DecQ estimates [3][29] - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges from macroeconomic factors, including tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which may affect demand curves [4][42] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the semiconductor distributor survey for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting the mixed sentiment and cautious optimism within the industry.

Summary of Microchip's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Microchip Technology Inc. - **Industry**: Semiconductor Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Guidance - Microchip recently updated its financial guidance, removing the low end of the range due to stronger-than-expected demand in the quarter [5][6] - Bookings in May reached the highest level seen in two years, indicating a rebound in demand [5] - Revenue fell to approximately $970.4 million last quarter, down from a peak of nearly $2.3 billion per quarter [10] Inventory Management - The company has been focusing on inventory reduction as part of its nine-point plan [6] - Inventory write-offs amounted to over $90 million in March, combined with underutilization charges of about $54 million, totaling nearly $145 million in charges [7] - Microchip aims to achieve a non-GAAP gross margin target of 65%, with underlying product gross margins reaching almost 67% when excluding inventory reserve charges [8] Demand Recovery - The current recovery is attributed to both improved end demand and the need for inventory replenishment after a period of depletion [10][11] - The recovery is broad-based across all end markets and geographies, with no significant distinction between industrial and automotive sectors [16][17] - Industrial markets account for about 30% of Microchip's business, with aerospace and defense contributing an additional 18% [18] Customer Relationships and Market Position - Microchip has been actively engaging with customers to rebuild relationships that may have been strained during previous cycles [29][30] - A survey indicated that 24% of customer relationships improved, while 12% were damaged, with efforts focused on the latter group [29][30] - The company is confident in its ability to regain market share and return to higher revenue levels [30] Pricing Environment - Pricing is expected to decline in the mid-single digits this fiscal year, with a return to more stable pricing conditions anticipated thereafter [48][49] - The company has adjusted its long-term gross margin target from 68% to 65% to reflect a more achievable model [48] Operational Efficiency - Microchip has implemented a reduction in force, with operational expenses (OpEx) expected to stabilize around $356 million, which is significantly lower than previous peaks [56][57] - The company aims to align OpEx with revenue growth, targeting 25% of revenue in the long term [58] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual increase in factory output, which could positively impact gross margins in the coming quarters [64] - Microchip is committed to maintaining its dividend while focusing on reducing leverage before considering stock buybacks [75][76] Tariff Impact - Approximately 14% of Microchip's revenue is subject to US-China tariffs, but the direct impact on the company is expected to be minimal [70][71] - The company has flexibility in its supply chain to mitigate potential tariff impacts by shifting production as needed [71] Seasonality and Market Trends - Seasonality is not expected to significantly impact performance, as inventory replenishment may override typical seasonal trends [72] - The company is optimistic about multiple quarters of strong performance driven by inventory replenishment [73] Additional Important Insights - Microchip is utilizing AI and machine learning to better manage customer data and inventory, aiming to avoid past issues related to capacity and order management [43][44] - The company is focused on ensuring that its pricing strategies align with market conditions and competitive pressures [52][56]