Investment Thesis

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X @Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒
Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒· 2025-08-10 15:21
RT José Rojas (@RedJoseRojas)Forget your CFA shit, this is how you build a strong investment thesis. ...
X @Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒
Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒· 2025-08-07 12:19
Question 3:https://t.co/WMbMT7xhhgWhy are you not selling since you are up so much? Is there a liquidity problem?Answer:i'm not selling because my thesis has not fully played outmany might see my portfolio now and say, 'but you're up 8 figures!!!'in reality, i've had an army of people telling me to sell since i was up low 6 figures, and they clowned on me every time i told them my trade thesis has not fully played outi will sell when my thesis fully plays out ...
CMS Energy(CMS) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 14:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first half of 2025, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.73, exceeding budget expectations and aligning with full-year guidance [23] - The full-year guidance remains at $3.54 to $3.60 per share, with confidence towards the high end [24] - Adjusted net income for 2025 was $518 million, benefiting from favorable weather and constructive regulatory outcomes [25][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong performance in its electric service territory, with a projected long-term annual sales growth estimate of 2% to 3% [6][10] - The NorthStar business contributes approximately 5% to the earnings mix, with growth primarily from energy and capacity sales at Dearborn Industrial Generation [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Michigan has been recognized as a top state for business, with strong housing starts and job growth contributing to positive market conditions [6][19] - The company has agreements with new data centers expected to add up to one gigawatt of load, part of a nine-gigawatt pipeline [4][5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on customer affordability and plans to invest over $25 billion beyond its five-year plan to enhance its electric grid and renewable energy initiatives [9][10] - An integrated resource plan (IRP) is set to be filed in mid-2026, addressing capacity needs and renewable energy requirements [10][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to meet financial objectives and navigate a dynamic regulatory environment [23][32] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities arising from the Big Beautiful Bill Act, which supports renewable energy projects [54] Other Important Information - The company has received regulatory approval for a storm deferral, marking a significant development in Michigan's regulatory landscape [19] - Moody's reaffirmed the company's credit ratings, indicating strong credit quality [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on the new one gigawatt data center agreement - Management confirmed that the agreement is part of the nine-gigawatt pipeline and discussions are ongoing regarding the ramp-up of load, expected to begin in 2029 or 2030 [39][40] Question: Interaction between the new data center and the $5 billion CapEx upside - Management indicated that the $5 billion figure is based on current projections and would be adjusted if additional capacity is required due to the new data center [56] Question: Status of the gas case and potential for settlement - Management reported a favorable position in the gas case, with significant support for the revised ask and a willingness to settle if beneficial [59] Question: Financing plans for 2026 - Management stated that they are considering opportunities to derisk equity financing needs for 2026 and will keep options flexible [61]
X @IcoBeast.eth🦇🔊
IcoBeast.eth🦇🔊· 2025-07-29 16:58
My internal investment thesis for this crypto cycle has settled on the following (subject to change of course - winners adapt):- BTC/ETH are going to continue receiving large institutional allo. If you have a decent port size, this is likely where you should be primarily parked- Stables remain fascinating to *everyone* and DeFi yield farming is extremely viable for quite a while into the future. If you made substantial money during the meme cycle, you likely have realize this is how to preserve and grow you ...
苏泊尔_2025 年上半年初步业绩_主要因海外利润率低于预期;买入评级Zhejiang Supor Co. (.SZ)_ 1H25 Prelim results_ Below expectation mainly on overseas margins; Buy
2025-07-25 07:15
Summary of Zhejiang Supor Co. (002032.SZ) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Supor Co. - **Industry**: Cookware and small kitchen appliances Key Financial Results - **1H25 Performance**: Total revenue of Rmb11,478 million, net profit of Rmb940 million, representing a year-over-year growth of +5% and flat net profit [1][4] - **2Q25 Performance**: Revenue and net profit declined by -5% and -17% year-over-year, respectively, indicating a significant drop compared to expectations [1][4] - **Domestic Revenue**: Grew by +3% year-over-year, consistent with 1Q performance, but below expectations due to limited impact from trade-in stimulus [1][3] - **Export Performance**: Mild decline in exports in 2Q, down from mid-teens growth in 1Q, attributed to a higher base and tapering contribution from front-loaded orders [1][3] Margin Analysis - **Margin Pressure**: Management highlighted ongoing margin pressure from exports due to tariffs and lower sales volume, alongside intense domestic competition [1][3] - **Gross Margin**: Expected to remain under pressure year-over-year, particularly in the overseas market due to tariff impacts [4][9] Market Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Management anticipates continued positive growth in the domestic market, although the boost from trade-in stimulus may weaken [3][4] - **Product Strategy**: Increased offerings in entry-level products to compete in a crowded market, while also launching innovative higher-margin products [3][4] - **Overseas Market**: Maintained targets for related-party transactions with SEB, with sales to the US primarily from cookware produced in Vietnam [3][4] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - **CAPEX Guidance**: Management plans disciplined capital expenditure despite capacity expansion in Vietnam, aiming to maintain healthy factory utilization rates [4][9] - **Dividend Policy**: Guidance for a high dividend payout ratio of 50-80%, though previous years' 100% payout is not guaranteed [4][9] Investment Thesis and Risks - **Investment Thesis**: Supor is viewed as a leading player in the cookware and small kitchen appliances sector, with potential for revenue and margin growth driven by product innovation and market recovery [7][9] - **Target Price**: Revised 12-month target price set at Rmb62, down from Rmb64, based on a discounted P/E valuation approach [4][9] - **Key Risks**: Include sluggish consumer demand, failure to launch popular new products, and challenges in expanding into the premium segment [9][10] Financial Projections - **EPS Estimates**: Revised down by 6% for 2025E-2027E to reflect the latest results [4][5] - **Revenue Growth Projections**: Mild domestic growth acceleration expected in 2H25, with slightly positive export growth anticipated [4][9] Conclusion - The earnings call highlighted challenges faced by Supor in both domestic and overseas markets, with management focusing on balancing growth and profitability through strategic product offerings and disciplined financial management. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for recovery in the second half of the year.
LVMUY: Luxury At A Discount - A Contrarian Buy?
Seeking Alpha· 2025-06-08 10:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive approach to investment analysis, combining financial, technical, and macroeconomic factors to identify growth opportunities and mitigate risks for clients [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The company, Meridian Wealth Management, is a registered investment advisory that focuses on providing tailored investment strategies to clients [1][3]. - The advisor utilizes various valuation methods and modeling techniques to assess the growth and value of companies, aiming to find winning investments for portfolio growth [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves analyzing a wide selection of funds and themes to identify both short-term trends and long-term opportunities [1]. - The advisor expresses a potential interest in initiating a long position in LVMUY, indicating a proactive approach to investment opportunities [2].