Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum - Japan Rate Reset: Implications Across Macro Markets Company/Industry Involved - **Company**: Morgan Stanley - **Industry**: Global Macro Markets, with a focus on Japan's economic outlook and monetary policy Key Points and Arguments Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise the policy rate in **June 2026**, with upward revisions already made as of **December 2026** [6][60] - Fiscal fundamentals in Japan are solid, but there is concern over the lack of credible and timely official fiscal estimates [60] - Real GDP growth forecasts for fiscal 2025 are revised to **+0.8% to +0.9%**, and for fiscal 2026 to **+0.8% to +1.0%** [6] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The BoJ is likely to slow its JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) reduction pace in **June 2026** [10][60] - There is expected upward pressure on term premiums in Japan due to fiscal policy concerns and the BoJ potentially falling behind the curve [60] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading at a premium to fair value, influenced by Japan's fiscal and inflation outlook [19][60] Equities and Earnings - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish stance on the Japan banking sector, with expectations of strong earnings per share (EPS) revisions [60] - The consensus 12-month forward P/E target for Japan is forecasted at **15.0x** [41][60] - Small-cap stocks have recently underperformed, but resilient fundamentals are still present [60] Asset Allocation Strategy - Morgan Stanley prefers global equities over core fixed income, favoring the US and Japan over Europe and emerging markets [46][60] - The underweight in core fixed income is primarily through credit allocation rather than government bonds, as technicals around issuance are weaker in corporate credit [60] European Market Insights - Upcoming inflation data in Europe may lead to two **25 basis point cuts** by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2026 [24][60] - The issuance of European government bonds has been well absorbed, with improving syndicate statistics [32][60] Risk Premium and Market Dynamics - Changes in risk premium are expected to drive the next leg of USD movements, with a more USD-negative risk premium anticipated [19][60] - The correlation between the Japanese yen and the TOPIX index is becoming less negative, indicating a complex relationship between currency strength and stock performance [50][60] Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data and its implications for monetary policy and market dynamics [60] - Analysts express caution regarding the potential for large market moves due to shifts in risk premiums and fiscal confidence in Japan [60]