First, let me give you the jobless claims data. It's gathered individually from the states, seasonally adjusted by Haver Analytics, our data provider, rising by 10,000 on the week. Still a modest 229.You can see that in the next chart. They're rising. It's the top of the range where they've been the past several months, but not really through the roof, though.Continuing claims that keeps edging higher together with that surge in mass layoffs that we reported yesterday from Challenger. Well, that suggests ma ...

We are getting uh the jobless claims data from the US government despite uh the government shutdown and senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us with the data and a look at what all the alternative job numbers are telling us and a very firm conclusion about the the state of the labor market we're going to get from Steve I'm I'm told >> thanks for setting me up there Joe uh that's not going to happen I'll do the best I can uh first let me give you the jobless claims data it's gathered gathered individ ...

Core Insights - Haver Analytics has developed a method to aggregate state jobless claims reports, providing a proxy that closely aligns with the government's weekly jobless claim report, showing a figure of 217,000 for the week of October 11th compared to 228,000 previously reported [1][2] - Continuing claims have increased to 1,942,000 from 1,920,000, indicating a slight rise in ongoing unemployment claims [2] - The data from Haver Analytics, while not perfect, generally aligns with government figures over time, suggesting a stable labor market with no significant changes since the government ceased publishing certain reports [4] Job Market Analysis - The job market appears to be characterized by low hiring and firing rates, with current claims hovering around the 200,000 to 220,000 range, indicating a relatively stable employment situation [4] - There is a discrepancy between jobless claims data and Federal Reserve commentary, particularly from Chairman Powell, who has expressed concerns about labor market conditions [8][17] Financial Market Dynamics - The relationship between equities and treasury yields is highlighted, with a noted "flight to good collateral," indicating a preference for high-quality assets amid market uncertainties [9][12] - Recent trends show a rise in the secured overnight funding rate (SOFR), suggesting tightness in financial markets and a demand for quality collateral [11][12] - The fiscal year ending in September saw a significant debt servicing cost of $1.22 trillion, which may exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates despite other factors that could push rates lower [16]

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]

GDP revised higher for Q2 to 3.8%; fastest economic growth in 2 years.Initial & continuous jobless claims lower than expected, home sales higher than expected, core PCE marginally higher.TLDR; economy holding up better than expected, rates are up, risk is down. ...

All of those things would seem to suggest that this is an economy in trouble. Not so according to the economic data released in the last hour. It showed the US economy growing at the fastest pace in nearly two years, thanks to consumer spending, though apparently not on used cars.Fed Governor Stephen Myron spoke to Bloomberg ahead of that data on the next steps for the Fed. My view is not one of enormous economic pessimism. You know, I don't think the economy is about to crater. I don't think the labor mark ...

Economic Data Overview - Recent economic data has shown favorable trends, with GDP revised to 3.8% for the second quarter and personal consumption expenditures increasing from 1.6% to 2.5% [2] - Durable goods orders exceeded expectations, rising by 2.9% instead of the anticipated decline of 0.5%, while core capital goods also increased by 6% [2] Job Market Insights - Jobless claims have improved, dropping to 218,000, which is a positive trend compared to previous weeks where claims were above 260,000 [3] Government Spending and Economic Growth - Despite a decrease in government spending, real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased by 3.2%, and real gross output rose by 1.2% [4] - The economy is showing resilience and growth even as government involvement diminishes [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - There is a wide range of opinions among Federal Reserve speakers regarding the economy and interest rates, with some advocating for lower Fed funds rates [7][8] - Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have contributed to market volatility, suggesting that the market may be reacting to perceived high valuations [9] Market Reactions - The market's decline, despite strong economic data, may be attributed to profit-taking and reactions to Fed comments [9]

Labor Market Overview - Initial jobless claims show a significant decrease to 218,000, a drop from a revised 232,000 last month, indicating no immediate firing concerns [1] - Continuing claims are slightly down to 1,926,000 from a revised 1,928,000, suggesting companies are holding steady [1] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and low firing rates, maintaining a state of equilibrium [3] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Wage disparities are emerging, with low-wage earners losing ground to high-income workers [5] - Low-income earners, who are most vulnerable to inflation, are experiencing wage stagnation [5] - Wage trends are crucial as they serve as a link between the job market and inflation [4] - Current Fed projections indicate inflation will remain above target for four years and take two years to reach the target [4]

Labor Market Overview - Jobless claims have decreased to 218,000, down from a revised 232,000, indicating no significant firing issues in the labor market [1] - Continuing claims are slightly down to 1,926,000 from a revised 1,928,000, suggesting companies are hesitant to make employment decisions [1] Economic Perception - The current jobless claims data might suggest a strong economy, with a 5% impression of stability, but there are underlying issues that need to be addressed [2] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and low firing rates, which has been a consistent trend throughout the year [3] Wage Dynamics - Wage growth is uneven across the labor market, particularly affecting low-income earners who are losing ground to higher-income workers [4][5] - Wages are critical in linking the job market to inflation, with projections indicating that inflation will remain above target for the next two years [4]

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were 218,000, below the expected 235,000, with the prior week's figure revised from 231,000 to 232,000. U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate (final) was 3.8%, above the expected and previous 3.3%. U.S. Q2 core PCE price index annualized rate (final) was 2.6%, slightly above the expected and previous 2.5%. ...